UFC 160 Preview and Predictions

I don’t know if this is something to brag about, but I’m up to #22 in the Sherdog MMA Pick’em standings. If nothing else, it shows that I know what I’m doing… a little bit. There’s always time for my picks to blow up in my face. Speaking of which, let’s make some picks for UFC 160.

 

UFC Heavyweight Championship Match: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

Antonio Silva is in the rare position of both being a fighter who deserves a shot at the title, but also having very little chance of actually winning. Cain Velasquez represents a nightmare of an opponent for him on a number of levels, not the least of which is the fact that Velasquez already mauled Silva at UFC 146.

On paper, Velasquez has the advantage in every area. He’s the better and more effective striker, the far superior wrestler, has much better conditioning, and has the more effective overall ground game. Silva might have better technical Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but let’s be honest – if this fight goes to the ground, it will be with Velasquez in top position, and Silva’s BJJ won’t do him much good from there.

I feel the same way about this fight now that I felt when it happened a year ago. The only position Silva would theoretically have the advantage is from top position on the ground. Again, it’s very unlikely Silva will get that chance, and even if he did, I doubt Silva would be able to keep Velasquez on his back for very long.

For Silva to win this fight, he probably needs to land one of his enormous hands on Velasquez’s somewhat suspect chin and knock him out. He probably has somewhere between 15-45 seconds in each round to do so. Barring that, I don’t see how Silva wins this fight.

Pick: Cain Velasquez by TKO

 

265 lbs: Junior Dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt

This is a very intriguing match from a stylistic perspective. As an overall MMA fighter, I think Junior Dos Santos is easily better than Mark Hunt, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Dos Santos has better takedown defense, better stamina, and a better ground game (mostly for getting the fight back standing).

But with the way these two match up, I actually think it will be quite competitive. Both fighters love to stand and strike, and rarely do anything else. If that’s the case, then I do favor Dos Santos to defeat Hunt, but by no means do I think it’s a blowout.

Mark Hunt might not look quite as smooth as Anderson Silva, but he is one of the heavyweight division’s best strikers, and is extremely tough to knock out on top of that. If I’m right, and this fight turns out to be three rounds of a striking match, there’s a good chance that Hunt can defeat Dos Santos by knockout or even decision.

Ultimately, I do have to side with the heavy favorite in Dos Santos, because he does have better endurance than Hunt, and should at least be able to out-pace Hunt over the course of 15 minutes. But if Dos Santos is able to defeat Hunt by out-striking him in an MMA match, he will be the first.

Pick: Junior Dos Santos by TKO

 

205 lbs: James Te Huna vs. Glover Teixeira

I know a lot of people are not too enthusiastic about this fight card because of how lopsided the main event is on paper, but this event is about as close to guaranteed action as it gets. This light-heavyweight match between James Te Huna and Glover Teixeira has a great chance of stealing the show. Both fighters are very aggressive strikers, and they’re going to clash.

Teixeira has better overall striking metrics as displayed by Fight Metric. He has a significant strike margin of +3.98, compared to +1.77 for Te Huna, and has three knockdowns in four fights, compared to two knockdowns in six fights for Te Huna. A striking match between Teixeira and Te Huna could certainly go either way, but Teixeira has the edge on paper.

Teixeira has also displayed the superior takedown game, as he landed five takedowns against Quinton Jackson, and has landed eight takedowns in 10 attempts overall. Ultimately, I have to side with Teixeira to win this fight, based on the statistics alone. But Te Huna is an aggressive fighter who should prove to be Teixeira’s toughest test in the UFC yet.

Pick: Glover Teixeira by TKO

 

155 lbs: T.J. Grant vs. Gray Maynard

One skill set I’ve praised often as being very effective in MMA is a dominant wrestler with knockout power. Examples of fighters with that skill set include Chad Mendes, Johny Hendricks, and Jake Ellenberger. To an extent, Gray Maynard belongs in that discussion as well.

I like Maynard to win this match… as long as he fights smart. Against T.J. Grant, that means going to his wrestling, landing takedowns, and controlling Grant from top position. Per Fight Metric, Grant has only defended 36% of takedowns attempted against him, which means Maynard should be able to dominate the takedown game.

What worries me is that we’ve seen Maynard abandon his wrestling too many times, and when he has, he’s usually won by very narrow decision. If Maynard decides to strike against Grant, then I think Grant has what it takes to out-pace him standing and earn the victory on the judges’ scorecards. I’m sure most fans would love to see that striking match, but if Maynard wants to win, he shouldn’t do it.

Pick: Gray Maynard by decision

 

155 lbs: Donald Cerrone vs. K.J. Noons

Donald Cerrone has the reputation of being a top ten lightweight in the world of MMA, and for the most part, it’s deserved. He has very crisp offensive striking to go along with serious Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills. His downfall, and the reason he can’t break through against top tier competition, is that his striking defense is far too porous.

Against K.J. Noons, I expect to see a striking match, and while Cerrone has better potential to win by knockout, I think Noons can give him a run for his money. Noons is just as active a striker as Cerrone, and while he has defensive issues himself, Noons definitely should be able to land quite a few strikes in this match. I do like Cerrone to win overall because of his superior power, but this is not a “gimme” fight for him.

Pick: Donald Cerrone by decision

 

Lightning round for the prelims…

-Mike Pyle has had a nice run lately, winning by first-round knockout in three fights in a row. But none of those fights were against an opponent nearly as tough as Rick Story. I like the underrated Story to use forward pressure to wear Pyle out and win by decision.

-Max Holloway has had a decent run in the UFC, but now that he’s been paired off against a wrestler in Dennis Bermudez, I don’t like his chances. Bermudez might have a glass jaw, but as long as he takes Holloway down, he should be able to win without too much trouble. Bermudez by submission.

-Colton Smith isn’t much of a striker, but he sticks to what he’s good at, and that means he’ll try to smother Robert Whittaker. I can’t say I’m nearly as well informed about this match as the betting public, and they like Smith to succeed with the smothering, so I’ll pick him as well. Smith by decision.

-I think Khabib Nurmagomedov is overrated, but then again, he keeps proving me wrong. Against Abel Trujillo, he won’t have to. Even though Trujillo looked good in his UFC debut against Marcus LeVesseur, he doesn’t have a very good record, and didn’t look good when I studied him on tape either. I think Khabib can win by TKO here.

-If Nah-Shon Burrell chooses to strike against Stephen Thompson, I see it being a competitive match, but I give a slight edge to Thompson. But if Burrell chooses to go for takedowns? Then it’s a different ballgame. Thompson’s ground game was exposed by Matt Brown; since I haven’t picked an underdog yet, it’s about time I do. Burrell by decision.

-Even though George Roop looked good in his bantamweight debut against Reuben Duran, I still don’t feel good about him cutting to 135 pounds. Combine that with the fact that he’s been knocked out twice in his last five fights, and I don’t like his chances against Brian Bowles, a fighter with arguably the best striking power in the bantamweight division. Bowles by TKO.

-Estevan Payan and Jeremy Stephens figure to engage in a striking match, but while Stephens should have better knockout power, I think Payan can win if the fight goes the distance. I do lean towards Stephens slightly because of that power, but this is a very competitive fight. Stephens by TKO.

UFC on FX 8 Post-Fight Analysis

I’ll be totally honest. Outside of the Francisco Trinaldo fight, I wasn’t too interested in the preliminaries for this fight card. As a result, my post-fight thoughts will be limited to the main card only.

-I hope Luke Rockhold will be OK after Vitor Belfort stole his soul with a devastating head kick. For crying out loud, Belfort is a destroyer on the feet. He doesn’t land a lot of strikes, but what he lands counts. I don’t think there’s a fighter in MMA who could withstand the kick he landed on Rockhold.

Going back to the Rich Franklin fight, this is four times I’ve picked a striker to beat Belfort, and now I’m 1-3 picking those fights. Only Anderson Silva emerged victorious. At this point, I have little choice but to acknowledge that anybody who chooses to strike with Belfort is in grave danger of being knocked out. His sheer power is simply unmatched in the sport.

At the same time, Belfort is kind of stuck in the middleweight division. The UFC could give him a rematch with Silva, but I have serious doubts about Belfort’s ability to win that fight. And if Chris Weidman manages to upset Silva, Belfort could challenge him, but Weidman is the perfect antidote to a fighter like Belfort: a wrestler who will take him down and neutralize his power. Belfort might truly be the world’s third-best middleweight, but I think that’s as far as he’s going to rise.

-Much respect to Chris Camozzi for taking an extremely difficult fight against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, but Camozzi didn’t have much of a chance there. Camozzi has never landed a takedown or a knockdown in the UFC, and that meant he would have to stuff Jacare’s takedowns and out-point him if he wanted to win. That’s far too narrow a path to victory for a fighter to have.

If the UFC is reluctant to promote a rematch between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort, we may see Belfort fight Jacare instead. If that fight happens, it would be very intriguing… as long as Jacare sticks to Belfort like glue.

-Direct from my predictions piece, on Rafael dos Anjos against Evan Dunham:

What’s more important is that the fight is in Brazil – if this really is a 50-50 type of fight, the judges might be inclined to give the decision to the home favorite. That’s enough for me to pick Dos Anjos to win this fight, but I only favor him by the slightest of margins.

I hate having to type things like that, but sure enough, Dos Anjos won a very questionable decision. I was a little off in my pre-fight analysis; I thought Dunham would out-pace Dos Anjos on the feet and Dos Anjos would win the takedown battle. Instead, the striking was very even but it was Dunham who landed takedowns. Either way, it seemed that Dunham had done enough to win, but once again, the judges for the fight saw it differently.

-I expected Rafael Natal to beat Joao Zeferino. What I didn’t expect was that Zeferino would gas out first. There are two ways to deal with Natal’s pressure: either focus on effective defense, and force Natal to put too much energy into his techniques, or rush Natal and fight at an even higher pace. Zeferino chose the second option, and while he looked good early, he was exhausted by the middle of the second round.

With that said, I wasn’t impressed with Natal’s striking in this fight. Natal has been taking on lower-level UFC fighters for a while now; it’s time for him to take a step up in competition, and prove that he truly belongs in the UFC. I’m skeptical that he would be able to pass a tougher test.

UFC on FX 8 Betting Picks

Surprisingly, my first two forays into making betting recommendations for UFC fights have both turned out to be successful. My picks were good for a 2.1 unit profit at UFC on Fox 7, and a 2.4 unit profit at UFC 159, for +4.5 units overall. It’s a good start, but I have a long way to go before I can say I have a “proven track record” or anything.

Before I get started, I need to put out a disclaimer. I make no guarantees that any of my picks will be profitable, and if you decide to make bets based on my picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. This post is intended for entertainment purposes only.

To see all the current betting lines on the fights, there’s no better resource to go to than Best Fight Odds. Check it out.

 

Here are my picks:

-I think a lot of people are underestimating what Luke Rockhold can do on the feet. Rockhold is very good at using his height and length to not get hit cleanly, and is a fairly active striker offensively as well. He throws a diverse arsenal of kicks along with well-timed punches. As long as he decides to stand and strike with Vitor Belfort – and I believe Rockhold will – I think Rockhold can at least win on points, and possibly win by TKO. Of course, Belfort is always a threat to win by knockout, but because Rockhold is just 28 years old, I think he’s less susceptible to being knocked out than Belfort’s last four KO victims: Michael Bisping (33), Yoshihiro Akiyama (35), Rich Franklin (34), and Matt Lindland (38). If Rockhold weathers the early storm, he probably wins, and I think he’s worth a bet at -125. With that said, I have such respect for Belfort’s power that I’m only willing to make it a small bet.

-On paper, I see the fight between Evan Dunham and Rafael dos Anjos as being basically even. Dunham should be able to land more strikes, but Dos Anjos is likely to land more takedowns. In the end, I picked Dos Anjos because I believe the judges tend to reward the fighter who lands takedowns, and are also likely to reward the Brazilian fighting in Brazil. But I only favor Dos Anjos by the slightest of margins, and that means with Dunham a +170 underdog, he presents some definite value.

-There are two fighters who I believe match up extremely well with their respective opponents. I think Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza won’t have too much trouble taking down and possibly submitting Chris Camozzi. If Kyle Noke could do it, Jacare can do it. I also think Francisco Trinaldo has an excellent chance of beating Mike Rio. As long as Trinaldo defends Rio’s takedowns, and I think he will, Trinaldo should prove to be much better on the feet. I feel pretty good about putting Jacare and Trinaldo in a parlay; doing so gives them a -185 price.

There are other picks I thought about (as always) but I’m just not confident enough in them to put any (imaginary) money down. In particular, Hacran Dias at +110, John Lineker at -120, and Chris Cariaso at +120 are all tempting to me, but not tempting enough to overcome my relative lack of confidence in those picks.

 

Here’s a recap of my (imaginary) bets:

Bet	Risk	To win
Ronaldo Souza-Francisco Trinaldo parlay	1.85 units	1 unit
Evan Dunham	1 unit	1.7 units
Luke Rockhold	0.63 units	0.5 units

 

Again, this post is just for fun. If you make any bets using these picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. Enjoy the fights!

 

UFC 159: +2.4 units

Overall: +4.5 units

UFC on FX 8 Preview and Predictions

Yes, I’ve been very quiet on this blog recently, but there’s a good reason for it. You’ll find out soon enough. Here are my picks for this Saturday’s fights:

185 lbs: Vitor Belfort (22-10, 11-6 UFC) vs. Luke Rockhold (10-1, 0-0 UFC)

Vitor Belfort has exceptional hand speed and blistering knockout power. When he has an opponent hurt, he rushes in with a barrage of strikes until he gets the finish. That’s pretty much Belfort’s game in a nutshell – he fights at a slow pace, sometimes to the point of being passive, throwing out an occasional big punch or head kick. When one of those connects, he rushes in and often is able to finish the fight. It’s not an approach that would work for most fighters, but Belfort has such power in his hands and feet that it’s worked for him throughout his very long MMA career.

The optimal strategy for almost anybody set to fight Belfort is to take him down. While Belfort does have some submission skills, he’s not very dangerous off his back, and putting him there removes the chance he might win by knockout. That’s where I’m nervous about Luke Rockhold’s chances to win this fight – Rockhold almost never goes for takedowns.

According to Fight Metric statistics, Rockhold only lands 0.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. Like Belfort, his preference is to stand and strike, and that’s unlikely to change, even with an opponent as dangerous as Belfort is. In a fight that looks like it will be mostly a striking battle, Belfort will have every opportunity to hurt and eventually finish Rockhold.

But there are reasons to think that Rockhold can survive where others have gone down. Reed Kuhn over at Fightnomics has done a terrific job of linking a fighter’s age to his chin and resistance to being knocked out. If you look at the fighters Belfort has knocked out recently, they’ve all been on the wrong side of 30 years old. Michael Bisping was 33, Yoshihiro Akiyama was 35, Rich Franklin was 34, and Matt Lindland was 38. In contrast, Rockhold is 28 years old, and hasn’t been competing in MMA nearly as long as Bisping, Franklin, or Lindland. It’s possible that Rockhold will prove more difficult to put away.

Another reason Rockhold might be able to survive the early storm is that he’s simply very good at avoiding strikes. Over seven fights tracked by Fight Metric, Rockhold has only been hit by 1.78 significant strikes per minute, a very low number consistent with championship-level fighters in the UFC, and lower than Jose Aldo and Demetrious Johnson in particular. Belfort already lands a low number of strikes in his fights; if all he can do against Rockhold is land 8-10 strikes per round, his chances of finishing the fight become substantially diminished.

I picked Bisping to beat Belfort based on the idea that if Belfort didn’t get an early finish, Bisping would be able to cruise to victory over a fatigued Belfort. Well, Belfort got the early finish. In this fight, I’m going to pick Rockhold to win based on the same reasons I picked Bisping. The difference is that Rockhold is younger, taller with a longer reach, and is better at defending strikes than Bisping. There’s always a chance Belfort can win very quickly and make me look like a fool, but I think Rockhold can weather an early storm and end up either winning on points or finishing Belfort by TKO in a later round.

Pick: Luke Rockhold by TKO

 

185 lbs: Chris Camozzi (19-5, 6-2 UFC) vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (17-3, 0-0 UFC)

The good news for Chris Camozzi is that, after a four-fight winning streak, he now has an opportunity to break into the top ten with a victory over Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. The bad news is that Jacare is about the worst stylistic matchup he could ever imagine. Despite Camozzi’s recent success, there’s not a lot he can do to win fights in the UFC. He doesn’t have much knockout power and isn’t particularly good on the ground. His takedown defense is nothing special either. If Camozzi wants to win, he needs the fight to stay standing so he can out-point his opponent.

Jacare won’t let the fight stay standing for long. He attempts eight takedowns per 15 minutes, and lands about half of the takedowns he attempts. Against Camozzi, whose takedown defense is very average, I expect Jacare to land an early takedown, and when he does… it’s just not good for Camozzi at all. I’ll put it this way – if Kyle Noke only needed 95 seconds to submit Camozzi, then I doubt Jacare will have too much trouble getting Camozzi to tap out either. Camozzi’s been on a nice run recently, but it’s about to end.

Pick: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza by submission

 

155 lbs: Rafael dos Anjos (18-6, 7-4 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (14-3, 7-3 UFC)

This looks like a very close and competitive fight, even if the betting public doesn’t see it that way. Dos Anjos is listed as a 2-1 favorite to beat Dunham in this fight, and I honestly don’t see why. Dunham should prove to be a very tough opponent – he strikes at an extremely high pace, has tough takedown defense, and is a good scrambler as well. With the way these two match up, over three rounds, I would expect Dunham to out-strike Dos Anjos 60-40, with Dos Anjos winning the takedown battle 2-1 or 3-1. To me, that doesn’t sound like there’s a clear favorite; to the contrary, it sounds like it will be a very tough judges’ call.

There are reasons to slightly favor Dos Anjos in that situation. Judges tend to side with the fighter who lands takedowns, and if that’s the case, Dos Anjos may have a slight advantage if this fight goes the distance. Again, Dunham has tough takedown defense, so there’s no guarantee that Dos Anjos will succeed in landing takedowns here. What’s more important is that the fight is in Brazil – if this really is a 50-50 type of fight, the judges might be inclined to give the decision to the home favorite. That’s enough for me to pick Dos Anjos to win this fight, but I only favor him by the slightest of margins.

Pick: Rafael dos Anjos by decision

 

Lightning round…

-Joao Zeferino started his MMA career 1-3, and is 12-1 since then. He’s also fighting a very aggressive opponent in Rafael Natal on short notice. Both fighters are very good on the ground, but I have my doubts that Zeferino will be able to handle Natal’s pressure well. Natal by decision.

-Nik Lentz has a strange statistical profile – he lands a lot of takedowns, but doesn’t have good takedown defense. I think Hacran Dias can take Lentz down enough to win a decision in what would be a mild upset. Dias by decision.

-I’m very enthusiastic about Francisco Trinaldo’s UFC potential. I’m not so enthusiastic about Mike Rio, a wrestler who often struggles to land takedowns, and was shut down by Efrain Escudero two years ago. I think Trinaldo stuffs Rio’s takedowns and gets a stoppage victory. Trinaldo by TKO.

-A battle of grapplers will feature Gleison Tibau, the lightweight division’s most dominant wrestler, against John Cholish. Cholish has done well in defending takedowns in his brief UFC career, but he hasn’t been tested against a tank like Tibau. I think Tibau wins by decision, but if Cholish can keep the fight standing, there’s definite upset potential here.

-Michel Prazeres enters the UFC at 16-0, and a handful of those wins were against tough opponents. I wish I knew more about him, because his record definitely has me intrigued. He does seem like a submission-based fighter, which is what Paulo Thiago is good at, so I’m going to stay safe and pick Thiago. But I’ll be watching closely. Thiago by decision.

-It’s not often a fighter enters the UFC with 34 fights on his record, but Iliarde Santos is doing exactly that, as he is 27-6-1. Unfortunately for him, he’s fighting Iuri Alcantara, one of the most underrated/overlooked fighters in the UFC. There are some bantamweights I would like Santos’s chances against – Alcantara is not one of them. Alcantara by TKO.

-Roger Hollett is a very stocky and muscular light-heavyweight who… at least has that going for him. If he goes for takedowns against Fabio Maldonado, he could pull off an upset here, but let’s be honest, Hollett just isn’t a UFC-caliber fighter. Maldonado by decision.

-Somehow, Azamat Gashimov is only a slight underdog against John Lineker, despite all of his career victories being against opponents who were 0-0. Gashimov does have some wrestling abilities, but has yet to prove that he’s truly ready for UFC-level competition. I have to take Lineker to win by TKO here.

-Jussier Formiga entered the UFC with a lot of fanfare, but didn’t show much against John Dodson. Formiga was easily out-struck and then knocked out in the second round. I don’t think Chris Cariaso will knock him out, but Cariaso is a very good kickboxer who I definitely think can out-point Formiga. Cariaso by decision.

-Lucas Martins got overwhelmed by Edson Barboza in his UFC debut, but this time, he’s facing a much worse opponent in Jeremy Larsen. I’ll be honest – I’m surprised Larsen is getting another UFC fight after his loss to Joe Proctor, but that might just be to build Martins up a little bit. Martins by TKO.

MMA Stats: Striking Defense of UFC Lightweights

After basically taking a week off from this blog, I thought it was a good time to return and… well, write something. So here’s a look at the 37 UFC lightweights who have at least 60 minutes of fighting recorded by Fight Metric. Today, I’ll be looking at which lightweights do the best job of avoiding significant strikes from their opponents.

Rank	Fighter	Strikes Absorbed/15 min.
1	Danny Castillo	21.3
2	Benson Henderson	23.4
3	Melvin Guillard	23.9
4	Josh Thomson	29.2
5	Pat Healy	29.6
6	Yves Edwards	31.4
7	Gilbert Melendez	32.0
8	Mark Bocek	32.4
9	Gleison Tibau	32.7
10	Anthony Njokuani	32.9
11	Rafael dos Anjos	33.2
12	Gray Maynard	33.6
13	Jim Miller	33.9
14	George Sotiropoulos	35.0
15	Thiago Tavares	35.1
16	Ryan Couture	37.5
17	Jamie Varner	38.7
18	Diego Sanchez	39.0
19	Sean Sherk	40.7
20	Rafaello Oliveira	42.8
21	Jorge Masvidal	44.7
22	Matt Wiman	45.0
23	Nate Diaz	45.5
24	Spencer Fisher	45.5
25	Michael Johnson	45.5
26	Ross Pearson	45.9
27	Takanori Gomi	46.8
28	T.J. Grant	47.6
29	John Makdessi	50.6
30	Mac Danzig	51.2
31	Evan Dunham	53.6
32	K.J. Noons	55.2
33	Aaron Riley	57.2
34	Donald Cerrone	57.8
35	Sam Stout	60.0
36	Joe Lauzon	62.9
37	Paul Taylor	67.1

Like any statistic in MMA, these numbers require some context. There are two ways to prevent an opponent from landing significant strikes. The first is with effective, masterful striking defense, as we see with Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida. The second is by landing takedowns – it’s nearly impossible to land significant strikes from the bottom position on the ground.

In the case of the lightweight division, the three best fighters at avoiding strikes are Danny Castillo, Benson Henderson, and Melvin Guillard. To a large extent, Castillo and Henderson avoid strikes by landing takedowns, and Guillard’s opponents just don’t want to strike with him – more takedowns are landed and attempted against Guillard than any other UFC lightweight.

It’s also worth noting that Castillo has fought 30 minutes – almost 20 percent of his Fight Metric time – against Paul Sass and Jacob Volkmann, neither of whom throw strikes. When I remove those fights, Castillo still only absorbs 25.4 significant strikes per 15 minutes. Either way, he’s very good at not getting hit.

At the other end of the spectrum, it’s no surprise to see Sam Stout and Paul Taylor near the bottom of this list – both fighters are strikers who almost never go for takedowns, and both tend to be matched up against opponents who are also strikers. Case in point: Sam Stout fighting Paul Taylor at UFC 121.

Meanwhile, if you ever wondered why Donald Cerrone or Joe Lauzon were never quite able to break into the elite class of UFC lightweights, now you know why. Both fighters get hit by far too many strikes to win consistently at a high level, especially Lauzon, who doesn’t land nearly as many strikes as he absorbs.

Another bit of necessary context: strength of opponents. Ryan Couture may rank above a number of great fighters on this list, but a number of Couture’s past opponents aren’t nearly good enough to compete in the UFC. By contrast, a fighter like Nate Diaz has fought a gauntlet of extremely tough opponents in his recent career. I’d hesitate before saying Couture is better than Diaz at defending strikes (although he might be).

Top Ten: Fewest Significant Strikes Landed by a UFC Decision Winner

A couple weeks ago, Francis Carmont won a decision against Lorenz Larkin that left me confused and bewildered. While Larkin was landing strikes, Carmont was trying and failing to land takedowns. How in the world did Carmont win the fight?

After the event was over, I looked at the Fight Metric statistics for the contest, and as it turns out, Carmont landed just 12 significant strikes and two takedowns in 15 minutes. I openly wondered if it was the least amount of offense ever produced by the winning fighter in a UFC fight.

This piqued my curiosity, and so I looked through Fight Metric’s database of statistics for UFC fights, to figure out who was able to land the fewest amount of significant strikes in a fight, but still win by decision. As it turns out, there are a handful of fighters who have landed even fewer strikes than Carmont, but still had their hand raised in the end. This covers every UFC fight since UFC 28.

(There were two fights at UFC 28 that would have made this list, but those were only two-round fights, so I decided not to include them.)

Here are the top ten (or bottom ten, depending on your perspective):

 

#9 (tied): UFC 48 – Matt Hughes def. Renato Verissimo – 11 significant strikes

This was one of the original fights that Fight Metric did a report on, arguing that Verissimo should have been awarded the decision back at UFC 48. Hughes landed one takedown in each round, but in the first two rounds, had to fight off three submission attempts and absorbed 39 strikes (although only six of them were graded by Fight Metric as significant). The third round went better for Hughes, but there’s an argument to be made that the scoring should have been 29-28 for Verissimo. Instead, Hughes won a unanimous decision, with two 30-27 scores and one 29-28.

Verissimo was 3-4 after this fight, losing to Frank Trigg, Carlos Condit, Kuniyoshi Hironaka, and Jake Shields.

 

#9 (tied): UFC on Versus 4 – Charlie Brenneman def. Rick Story – 11 significant strikes

I believe that people tend to overrate the underdog’s performance in a fight, and this is a great example of that. Brenneman took this fight on one day’s notice, and was expected to lose to Story, who himself was coming off an upset victory over Thiago Alves. Yes, Brenneman won the takedown battle, with five takedowns landed against just two for Story, but Brenneman did very little with those takedowns, landing just 11 significant strikes, while Story landed 17 significant strikes and attempted four submissions. It wasn’t enough for Story, as Brenneman’s takedowns and top control were enough for the judges to award him a decision win in front of a hometown crowd in Pittsburgh.

 

#7 (tied): TUF 8 Finale – Shane Nelson def. George Roop – 10 significant strikes

Nelson landed one takedown in each round against Roop, and had one submission attempt in both the second and third rounds. That apparently was enough for him to win by decision, as Roop out-struck Nelson, 21-10 in significant strikes, and 93-69 in total strikes. I’ve never watched this fight, but if the statistics are any indication, the real loser in this one was the fans.

 

#7 (tied): UFC 125 – Jacob Volkmann def. Antonio McKee – 10 significant strikes

Spoiler alert: this is not the first time Volkmann will appear on this list. McKee out-struck Volkmann 25-10 in significant strikes, and 41-21 in total strikes. Each fighter landed one takedown, but Volkmann had two submission attempts. In the end, a split decision was awarded to Volkmann. Dana White and Joe Silva were so excited by this match that they released McKee immediately afterwards, despite this being McKee’s UFC debut.

 

#6: UFC 60 – Diego Sanchez def. John Alessio – 9 significant strikes

Apparently, Sanchez winning by very questionable decision is not a new phenomenon. We’re familiar with Sanchez’s debatable wins over Takanori Gomi and Martin Kampmann. At least Sanchez produced a good deal of offense in those fights, because he didn’t do that against John Alessio at UFC 60. In that fight, Sanchez landed just nine significant strikes and one takedown in 16 attempts. In the first round, Sanchez landed two significant strikes and went 0 for 7 on takedown attempts. In the third round, Sanchez landed just one significant strike and failed on both of his takedown attempts. And in the second round, Sanchez did manage to land one takedown, but was still out-struck 9-6 by Alessio.

Despite all of this, Sanchez won by unanimous decision. I think the judges of this fight should have been forced to listen to Bill Walton lecture them about how you can’t mistake activity for achievement, because Sanchez was very active in this fight – he just didn’t achieve anything.

 

#4 (tied): UFC 28 – Renato Sobral def. Maurice Smith – 7 significant strikes

They say that absence makes the heart grow fonder, and there are undoubtedly a lot of MMA fans who think the sport has gotten more boring over time, since the “good old days”. I completely disagree – I don’t think a lot of people realize just how many dreadful fights there used to be in MMA. A perfect example of this is Renato “Babalu” Sobral against Maurice Smith from UFC 28. In this fight, Sobral landed four takedowns, attempted two submissions, and landed seven significant strikes. The bad part is that Sobral was the clear and obvious winner anyway. Both men landed a lot of short and insignificant strikes on the ground, the kind of stuff that would get fighters booed mercilessly if they did it in a fight today.

 

#4 (tied): UFC Fight Night 18 – Gleison Tibau def. Jeremy Stephens – 7 significant strikes

This fight was all about the grappling of Tibau. Stephens did a great job of stopping Tibau’s takedowns early, but Tibau was relentless, and eventually figured out how to take Stephens down consistently. After that, Tibau was dominant was with guard passes and submission attempts. Basically, Tibau did everything in this fight except throw strikes, and was very deserving of the decision victory.

 

#3: UFC on Versus 5 – Jacob Volkmann def. Danny Castillo – 6 significant strikes

Seven months after his split decision win against Antonio McKee at UFC 125, Volkmann proved that he could win despite landing even fewer significant strikes than he did against McKee. Volkmann won the takedown battle against fellow wrestler Danny Castillo, and used his top position to attempt a whopping six submissions. Even though Volkmann couldn’t put Casillo away, that was enough for him to earn the judges’ nod despite his complete lack of striking offense in the fight.

 

#1 (tied): UFC 116 – Daniel Roberts def. Forrest Petz – 5 significant strikes

For his seven-fight UFC career, Roberts landed an anemic 0.73 significant strikes per minute. That’s reflected in his split decision win over Forrest Petz at UFC 116, in which Roberts was out-struck 21-5 in significant strikes and 47-45 in total strikes, but won anyway because of six takedowns and two submission attempts. Roberts definitely has some skill on the ground, but to repeat an often-heard cliché, you need to be well-rounded to win consistently in the UFC. When Roberts faced opponents he couldn’t take down, there was nothing he could do about it.

 

#1 (tied): UFC on FX 7 – Ronny Markes def. Andrew Craig – 5 significant strikes

This fight mostly consisted of Markes clinching, and struggling to take Craig to the ground. Markes landed five out of nine significant strikes and two out of 12 takedowns in 15 minutes. This was enough for Markes to win the first two rounds against Craig, who was smothered and unable to do much of anything. If you’re wondering who produced the least amount of offense in a UFC fight and still won by decision, your answer very well might be Ronny Markes.

UFC 159 Post-Fight Analysis

UFC 159 will go down as one of the most bizarre UFC events of all time. There were a lot of eye pokes, a lot of injuries, and a lot of very strange happenings. What there weren’t a lot of were entertaining fights. I feel bad for anybody who paid good money to attend the event, because they didn’t get their money’s worth tonight.

Hopefully this will end the idea that fight cards that look bad on paper will be entertaining in practice. Whether or not a card is entertaining is basically random. For every UFC 108 that turned out to be a great night of fights, there’s an event like UFC 149 which falls flat.

-The only thing I liked about the fight between Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen was the fact that Sonnen was going to go right after Jones from the beginning. He did that, Jones took him down easily, and Sonnen had little to offer from his back. Hopefully we’ve seen the end of Jones fighting middleweights who have very little chance to beat him.

-Of course, now Jones has a nasty injury to deal with and heal from before we see him fight again. That’s another reason the fight with Sonnen should not have been made. Great champions like Jones won’t be around forever. Too much of his career was wasted with the build-up and fight with Sonnen, when it could have been spent matching Jones against a better opponent.

-Alan Belcher has porous striking defense, and it was exposed by Michael Bisping. Belcher’s hands are all over the place and he doesn’t move his head, which is a recipe for getting hit a lot. A great example of Belcher having poor defense was his UFC 100 fight against Yoshihiro Akiyama – Akiyama is no master striker, but was still able to tag Belcher repeatedly in their fight. Against a much better volume striker in Bisping, there was no way Belcher wasn’t going to get hit a lot.

-I really hope Belcher is OK, that eye poke late in the third round was brutal.

-What can I say about Roy Nelson? He has a devastating overhand right that knocks people unconscious. I would still pick against him in a heartbeat against just almost any top ten heavyweight, but he’ll always be dangerous because of that KO power. Sometimes, I’m wrong about a fighter enough times that I have no choice but to respect him, and Nelson earned my respect (although I did ultimately pick Nelson to beat Cheick Kongo).

-Phil Davis isn’t going to win the K-1 World Grand Prix any time soon, but what he does well is throw a lot of straight punches. This is something I’d recommend to anybody who isn’t a polished striker – straight punches land at a fairly high percentage, and keep the opponent at distance, which aids in defending takedowns as well. Vinny Magalhaes was aggressive early in the fight, but as the fight went on, it was clear he had no idea what to do about Davis’s skill set.

-I thought Jim Miller’s lack of takedown defense would be problematic for him against Pat Healy, but the real problem in the fight was his conditioning. Miller was exhausted in the second round, and that allowed Healy to apply his smothering, grinding style, and eventually win by choking Miller unconscious. To be sure, a lot of that is because of Healy’s style, but at the same time, if Miller aspires to be a UFC champion, he needs to have better cardio than that.

-I was so excited to see Yancy Medeiros compete against Rustam Khabilov, because after watching Medeiros compete against Gareth Joseph three years ago, I really liked him as a potential star in the UFC. Unfortunately, after Medeiros looked impressive early, he broke his thumb and the fight was over. It’s a shame, but hopefully the injury isn’t too severe and we can see Medeiros compete again before too long.

-With that said, Medeiros looked like a completely different person at lightweight. Seriously, he used to be a thick (fat) middleweight, now he’s a lean lightweight. That’s not a transformation often seen in MMA.

-I’m hardly the first person to say this, but Gian Villante getting poked in the eye is a perfect example of why eye pokes should come with a five minute period to recover, just like strikes to the groin. Give Villante up to five minutes to recover from the eye poke, and I’m sure he would have been able to continue. With the way the rules are written now, there is no five minute period to recover from an eye poke, and that helps result in debacles like Villante’s fight with Ovince St-Preux going to a technical decision.

-That’s not excusing Kevin Mulhall’s awful decision to stop the fight the way he did. For crying out loud, at least let the doctor in the cage to give his ruling before making such a hasty decision.

-After three minutes of doing very little in Sheila Gaff’s guard, I was afraid we were going to see a pretty boring fight between Gaff and Sara McMann. Thankfully, McMann showed much better offense after her second takedown, easily passing Gaff’s guard, securing a crucifix, and finishing the fight with strikes. With her wrestling background, McMann certainly has the potential to be a champion in the UFC, but I hope she can develop a more well-rounded skill set soon, as her striking leaves a lot to be desired.

-I was really hoping that Johnny Bedford would have an answer for the grappling of Bryan Caraway, but that turned out not to be the case. Bedford entered the fight with a record of 19-10-1, with nine losses by submission. Usually, fighters who enter the UFC with a lot of losses have that record for a reason, and usually, the flaws that led to those losses don’t just go away. Caraway exposed Bedford’s flaws in this fight, and that’s bad news for Bedford’s UFC future.

-If Leonard Garcia gets another fight in the UFC, it’s a travesty. It’s not that I WANT fighters to be out of a job in the UFC, but MMA is a sport, and sports should be at least somewhat merit-based in terms of who gets opportunities to perform. I don’t want to take anything away from Cody McKenzie, who did a great job of controlling Garcia, but there are only so many spots in the UFC, and Garcia should not be taking one of them. Give an up-and-coming fighter with potential an opportunity instead.

-Steven Siler and Kurt Holobaugh were even through two and a half rounds, when Holobaugh decided to try to throw Siler by the head. He failed, Siler took his back, and the fight was over. I don’t understand why fighters go for this technique – it’s a low percentage, high-risk move. Siler has never had good takedown defense, so why go for something fancy, instead of a standard body lock or double-leg takedown? That move cost Holobaugh the fight.

UFC 159 Betting Picks

Last week, I made the horrible decision to give out some betting picks for UFC on Fox 7. Amazingly, those picks turned out to be quite good. I’m sure it’s time to quit while I’m ahead, but I’m back for some more betting picks, where I will probably lose all of my imaginary profit and then some.

Before I get started, I need to put out a disclaimer. I make no guarantees that any of my picks will be profitable, and if you decide to make bets based on my picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. This post is intended for entertainment purposes only.

To see all the current betting lines on the fights, there’s no better resource to go to than Best Fight Odds. Check it out.

 

Here are my picks:

-I think Michael Bisping has a great chance of beating Alan Belcher. It’s very likely that Bisping will land more strikes and takedowns than Belcher, which makes him a very likely winner if the fight goes the distance. In my opinion, Belcher needs to finish this fight if he wants to win, and while that’s a possibility, there’s a possibility that Bisping can finish Belcher as well. In short, I think Bisping should be a very solid favorite here, and with the current price on Bisping at -170, I think it’s definitely worth a bet.

-In my preview post, I went against everything I believe in and picked Roy Nelson to knock out Cheick Kongo. At the same time, I still think Kongo has a very good chance of winning this fight. Again, when Nelson goes beyond the first round, he gets exhausted and eats way too many strikes. If Nelson doesn’t get the knockout, I think Kongo will get the decision. There’s some definite value on Kongo at +215 in my opinion.

-Jim Miller is a better overall fighter than Pat Healy, and I think would beat Healy in a pure kickboxing match or a pure grappling match. But in MMA, the fighter who lands takedowns often wins the fight. I do think Healy will land takedowns on Miller here, and that fact alone makes me like Healy as a value bet at +275.

-Part of me thinks it’s a horrible idea to place any of my imaginary money on Leonard Garcia in any situation. The other part of me thinks there’s no way he should lose to Cody McKenzie, which makes the current -185 price a steal. I’m going to compromise with myself and go with a small play on Garcia, but it’s hard for me to have a lot of confidence in it.

-I like Bryan Caraway to upset Johnny Bedford tomorrow, but since Caraway is taking the fight on short notice, I think it’s a good idea to place only a small bet on Caraway at +135.

-Yancy Medeiros is a mystery to almost everybody, but I feel I have a better grasp of what he can do than most people, since I saw him compete live three years ago. After a three year layoff and dropping two weight classes, I can’t pick Medeiros to beat Rustam Khabilov outright. But I do feel like it would be a wasted opportunity not to put any fake money down. It will only be a flier, but I like Medeiros at +260.

 

Other picks I thought about:

-I have to admit that Chael Sonnen at +725 is tempting. It’s not often that a world-class fighter is such an enormous underdog. At the same time, Jon Jones represents about the worst stylistic opponent imaginable for Sonnen. There’s perceived value, and then there’s just wasted money, so I’m going to pass.

-Sara McMann might be a great wrestler, but she’s not a very good striker. There’s absolutely a chance that Sheila Gaff will knock her out. A flier on Gaff by KO/TKO at +925 is tempting, but again, any fake money I place on that is probably money down the drain.

 

Here’s a recap of my (imaginary) bets:

Bet	Risk	To win
Michael Bisping	1.7 units	1 unit
Cheick Kongo	1 unit	2.15 units
Pat Healy	1 unit	2.75 units
Leonard Garcia	0.93 units	0.5 units
Bryan Caraway	0.5 units	0.68 units
Yancy Medeiros	0.1 units	0.26 units

Again, this post is just for fun. If you make any bets using these picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. Enjoy the fights!

 

Last week: +2.1 units

Overall: +2.1 units

UFC 159 Preview and Predictions

UFC Light-Heavyweight Championship Match (5 rounds)

Jon Jones (17-1, 11-1 UFC) vs. Chael Sonnen (27-12-1, 6-5 UFC)

Given my tendency to be a contrarian when it comes to fight analysis, you might expect me to write at length about how Chael Sonnen could potentially defeat Jon Jones. After all, Jones is a massive 10-1 favorite to win the match. That’s rare enough for any fight in MMA, but for the underdog in this situation to be a fighter as good as Sonnen is just unheard of.

The cold reality for Sonnen is that he wins fights one way – by landing takedowns and dominating from top position on the ground. Sonnen isn’t a knockout artist; his last TKO win was against Kyacey Uscola in 2007. He isn’t a submission master either, as he has only won four fights by submission in his 40 fight career. Instead, Sonnen wins decisions, and since joining the UFC middleweight division, he’s been excellent at it.

Against Jon Jones, Sonnen’s path to victory is the same as it was against Anderson Silva. He needs to take the fight to the ground repeatedly, and score points with strikes while staying out of submissions, eventually winning the fight by decision. And that’s the problem – against Silva, Sonnen was fighting a middleweight with good takedown defense. Against Jones, Sonnen will be fighting a light-heavyweight with outstanding takedown defense – Jones has never been taken down in his MMA career.

Of course, just because Jones hasn’t been taken down doesn’t mean he can’t be taken down. It might not seem ridiculous to suggest that Sonnen could be the first to do so. After all, Sonnen is a very good wrestler who always fights very aggressively, regardless of who his opponent is. If Sonnen shows that same aggression against Jones, perhaps he’ll find a way to land a takedown.

But one takedown won’t be enough. If Sonnen wants to win a decision in this fight, he’ll have to land takedowns in at least three rounds out of five. Not only will Sonnen have to land those takedowns, he’ll have to keep Jones on his back while landing strikes and staying out of submissions. That outcome might be within the realm of possibility, but I’ll be shocked if the fight actually unfolds that way.

To put it bluntly, Jones is the much better striker and grappler, the better wrestler, the bigger fighter, and has better conditioning than Sonnen. The big advantage Sonnen has always had – his ability to dominate the takedown game – won’t exist in this fight. Instead, Sonnen will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat, finding some way to catch Jones with a strike that knocks him out, or putting him in a surprising submission hold. It’s a nearly hopeless situation for him.

I liked the idea of this fight when Sonnen was going to replace Dan Henderson on short notice at UFC 151. I hate the idea of this fight now. Hopefully after Jones finishes Sonnen, he can finally move on to competing against fellow light-heavyweights who genuinely earned their opportunity to face him.

Pick: Jon Jones by submission

 

UFC Middleweight Match (3 rounds)

Alan Belcher (18-7, 9-5 UFC) vs. Michael Bisping (23-5, 13-5 UFC)

Alan Belcher is an overrated fighter in my opinion. I felt that way before his match against Yushin Okami at UFC 155, where Belcher closed as the betting favorite in most spots, and I still feel that way now. Belcher got a lot of hype behind him after winning four fights in a row, but the opponents he beat during that winning streak – Wilson Gouveia, Patrick Cote, Jason MacDonald, and Rousimar Palhares – were all far from the top of the division. Against a tougher opponent in Okami, Belcher landed a couple hard strikes, but otherwise was unable to produce much offense.

Belcher’s flaws are what they always have been – he gets hit too easily, and he doesn’t have particularly good takedown defense. Belcher often throws kicks to the body, and while he’s a hard kicker, these kicks often get caught by his opponents, who use them to take Belcher down.

Against Michael Bisping, Belcher will be facing an opponent who is well equipped to take advantage of Belcher’s weaknesses. Bisping is a very good volume striker who should be able to score a lot of points on Belcher throughout a three-round fight. He also has decent takedowns, and as long as he attempts to get Belcher to the ground, he should be successful at some point.

If this fight goes to decision, it should be with Bisping as the winner, as I cannot imagine Belcher landing more strikes and takedowns throughout the fight. If that is the case, then Belcher will need to finish Bisping if he wants to win. While that’s not unlikely to happen, it’s not enough for me to favor Belcher to win this match.

Pick: Michael Bisping by decision

 

UFC Heavyweight Match (3 rounds)

Cheick Kongo (18-7-2, 11-5-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (18-7, 5-3 UFC)

Roy Nelson has made a habit out of proving me wrong recently. I felt that Nelson was an overrated heavyweight, and picked both Dave Herman and Matt Mitrione to beat him, based on the idea that those fighters could avoid the early KO and end up winning on points. Well, neither man avoided the early KO; Nelson finished Mitrione in three minutes and Herman in just 51 seconds.

Against Cheick Kongo, I’m very tempted to pick against Nelson again. The idea is that, if Nelson doesn’t win by knockout, he’s almost definitely going to lose by decision. There have been too many times that I’ve seen Nelson reduced to a punching bag later in fights, exhausted and unable to attack effectively. I can definitely see Kongo clinching Nelson to oblivion, landing hard knees to Nelson’s protruding gut.

But at some point, I have to acknowledge that a Nelson KO win might actually be better than a 50-50 possibility. After all, all of Nelson’s five UFC wins have been by KO, and his losses were all to high-level opponents in Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir, and Fabricio Werdum. Meanwhile, Kongo is very old in MMA years, and is known for having a somewhat brittle chin. I hate doing this, and I certainly don’t think Nelson should be a -240 favorite, but…

Pick: Roy Nelson by KO

 

UFC Light-Heavyweight Match (3 rounds)

Phil Davis (10-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (10-5, 1-2 UFC)

This is a very interesting fight, one that will match the dominant wrestling of Davis against the world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu of Magalhaes. But unlike many prognosticators on the internet, I don’t think Magalhaes has a very good chance of winning this one. Let’s explore the possibilities…

Magalhaes by KO? I shouldn’t completely dismiss the chances of this happening, as Magalhaes does have two TKO wins on his record. But it will be very  hard for him to win this way against Davis. For one, I don’t think this fight will stay standing for very long. Even if it does, though, Davis always makes it a priority not to get hit. If Magalhaes is reduced to ten significant strikes in the match, the likelihood that one of them is a knockout shot is very low.

Magalhaes by submission? The single most likely way for Magalhaes to win for sure, but to do so, he’ll have to win a grappling match against Davis while operating from bottom position on the ground. If anybody could do it, Magalhaes can, but Davis is no joke from top position. We’ve seen high-level BJJ practitioners get shut down by dominant wrestlers before, and I anticipate that will happen again in this fight.

Magalhaes by decision? I doubt it. Again, Davis will be the fighter landing takedowns and working from top position. For Magalhaes to win on the judges’ scorecards, he’ll need to probably win the ensuing grappling match by an overwhelming margin. It’s possible, but not likely.

By far, the most likely result here is that Davis takes Magalhaes down without too much struggle, and proceeds to control Magalhaes while landing strikes, eventually winning by decision. I’ll be surprised if Magalhaes can stop Davis here.

Pick: Phil Davis by decision

 

UFC Lightweight Match (3 rounds)

Pat Healy (29-16, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jim Miller (22-4, 11-3 UFC)

While I think Jim Miller is definitely a more talented fighter than Pat Healy, I also think Healy could represent a very tough stylistic match for him. Miller definitely has more well-rounded abilities than Healy; he’s the better striker and has much better Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Still, a couple of numbers jumped out at me during my stats breakdown of this fight the other day. One is that Healy attempts 7.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. The other is that Miller only defends 42% of takedowns attempted against him.

Pat Healy is nothing if not consistent. He’s a huge lightweight, and is likely to clinch with Miller and try to take him down. He’ll probably have some success with the takedowns. But where I favor Miller in this fight is that his level of competition has been much higher than Healy’s. While Miller has been facing the likes of Benson Henderson, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz, and Gleison Tibau, Healy has been facing opponents like Mizuto Hirota and Maximo Blanco. In the end, I think Miller’s talent, particularly on the ground, will be enough for him to get his hand raised in this fight.

Pick: Jim Miller by decision

 

Lightning round for the prelims…

-I know it’s easy to dismiss Yancy Medeiros, but I wouldn’t. Medeiros has good Muay Thai and takedown defense, and I think has a very good chance of winning against Rustam Khabilov. Still, Medeiros is dropping two weight classes and coming off a three-year layoff. I’ll stay smart and pick Khabilov.

-I can’t understand why Gian Villante has had hype behind him in the past, because he has yet to prove himself against good competition. I think Ovince St-Preux will out-strike him and end up winning by decision.

-As long as Sheila Gaff can keep her fight against Sara McMann standing, she has an excellent chance of winning. But let’s be honest, McMann is a world-class wrestler who won’t have much difficulty taking Gaff down. McMann by submission.

-Since I’ve been tempted to pick the underdog a couple times already, I’d feel terrible to go a whole card without picking one. So I’m going to pick Bryan Caraway to beat Johnny Bedford despite taking this fight on very short notice. Bedford is definitely the better striker, but has a history of losing by submission, and I think Caraway is very well-equipped to take advantage of that.

-It seems that a lot of people hate Cody McKenzie for being a one-trick pony in the UFC, but I respect a fighter who can find ways to win despite a lack of talent. With that said… I can’t even find a way to pick McKenzie to beat Leonard Garcia! As long as Garcia stays out of the guillotine choke, he wins this fight. Garcia by TKO.

-I’m sure when Nick Catone decided to move down to the welterweight division, it was with the idea that he would be bigger than his opponents. Against James Head, that won’t be the case. It’s a competitive fight, but I think Head can keep it standing and out-strike Catone.

-I’ve picked Steven Siler to win every UFC fight he’s been in, and after winning his first three fights, he was dominated by Darren Elkins in his last one. I’m going to quit while I’m ahead. Siler’s takedown defense just isn’t good enough to win consistently. Kurt Holobaugh should be able to land takedowns on Siler and win by decision.

UFC 159 Stats Breakdown

Even though MMA is a sport unsuited to statistical analysis on the individual level… I can’t get enough of it! Let’s take a look at the Fight Metric statistics for the fighters set to compete on the main card of UFC 159, and see if we can’t get an idea of how the fights will go.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Championship Match: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen

• Jones has a significant strike margin of +2.48 per minute, compared to +2.28 for Sonnen.
• Per 15 minutes, Jones lands 2.5 takedowns in 4.0 attempts, while Sonnen lands 3.9 takedowns in 6.6 attempts.
• Sonnen defends his opponent’s takedown attempts 71% of the time, but his takedown defense still can’t hold a candle to Jones, who has never been taken down in an MMA fight.
• Jones will have an 11-inch reach advantage in the fight.

Both fighters here have a huge significant strike margin, but for Sonnen, it’s almost completely because of his ability to take opponents to the ground. It’s hard to imagine Sonnen having consistent success taking Jones down – after all, Sonnen struggled to take down Michael Bisping, whose takedown defense isn’t nearly as good as that of Jones. On the flip side, I do anticipate that Jones could be successful taking Sonnen down. The big advantage Sonnen has in most of his fights is that he’s the better wrestler, but that probably won’t be the case in this championship fight. And if the fight stays standing, I doubt that Sonnen will have much success, since he will have to contend with the exceptionally long reach of Jones.

UFC Middleweight Match: Alan Belcher vs. Michael Bisping

• Bisping has a significant strike margin of +2.01 per minute, compared to +0.08 for Belcher.
• Per 15 minutes, Bisping lands 2.0 takedowns in 4.2 attempts, while Belcher lands 0.5 takedowns in 1.5 attempts.
• Bisping has only attempted one submission since his Ultimate Fighter match against Josh Haynes.
• Belcher defends 55% of his  opponent’s takedown attempts, compared to 62% for Bisping.

As is usually the case, Bisping will probably be the winner if this fight goes to decision. On paper, he’s better than Alan Belcher at both volume striking and takedowns. I’ve said it before – Belcher is a talented fighter offensively, but his striking defense and takedown defense are both deficient. Bisping is a fighter who should be able to take advantage of those deficiencies. Belcher’s best chance of winning is to land a powerful strike and knock Bisping out, but Bisping has only been knocked out twice in his career, against the right hand of Dan Henderson and the head kick of Vitor Belfort. While I respect Belcher’s KO power, it’s hard to argue he packs quite as much power as fighters like Henderson and Belfort. If the statistics are any indication, this fight should be Bisping’s to lose.

UFC Heavyweight Match: Cheick Kongo vs. Roy Nelson

• Kongo has an enormous advantage in significant strike margin: +2.09 for Kongo, -2.36 for Nelson.
• Per 15 minutes, Kongo lands 2.2 takedowns in 3.5 attempts, while Nelson lands just 0.7 takedowns in 3.7 attempts.
• In the fights tracked by Fight Metric, Nelson has scored four knockdowns on 208 significant strikes, for a ratio of 52 significant strikes per knockdown.
• Meanwhile, Kongo has been knocked down three times (twice by Pat Barry) on 232 significant strikes, for a ratio of 77 significant strikes per knockdown.

I know Roy Nelson is a fairly heavy favorite to win this fight… but if he doesn’t win by knockout, it sure looks like he should lose this match. On paper, Cheick Kongo is the much better striker; while Kongo out-paces his opponent by 2.09 significant strikes per minute, Nelson gets hit by almost twice as many significant strikes as he lands. Kongo is also the better wrestler on paper; while Kongo doesn’t have terrific takedown defense, Nelson only lands 19% of his takedown attempts. Yes, Nelson has a great chance of catching Kongo with a big punch and winning by knockout. But is that chance so high that Nelson should be a -240 favorite?

UFC Light-Heavyweight Match: Phil Davis vs. Vinny Magalhaes

• Davis has a significant strike margin of +2.05 per minute, compared to -0.60 for Magalhaes.
• Davis avoids 71% of the significant strikes thrown at him, and only gets hit by 0.94 per minute. Meanwhile, Magalhaes only lands 28% of his significant strike attempts.
• Per 15 minutes, Davis lands 3.2 takedowns in 6.5 attempts, while Magalhaes lands 1.9 takedowns in 3.8 attempts.
• Magalhaes has attempted two submissions in his three UFC fights.

These numbers for Magalhaes should be taken with a grain of salt, because he only has three fights tracked by Fight Metric. Still, the numbers seem to overwhelmingly favor Davis. Davis doesn’t really have developed offensive kickboxing, but he’s one of the best fighters in MMA at avoiding strikes. On paper, he should be the better striker and wrestler than Magalhaes. Now, Magalhaes is well known for being a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but he will likely struggle to apply it against Davis, who is a fantastic grappler himself, and likely to have the top position on the ground. I’ll put it this way – if Magalhaes couldn’t manage to attempt a submission against Eliot Marshall, I doubt he’ll pull it off against Phil Davis.

UFC Lightweight Match: Jim Miller vs. Pat Healy

• Miller has a very narrow edge in significant strike margin: +0.52 for Miller, +0.44 for Healy.
• Per 15 minutes, Miller lands 2.1 takedowns in 4.6 attempts, while Healy lands 3.7 takedowns in 7.9 attempts.
• Healy defends takedowns at a 71% rate, compared to just 42% for Miller.
• Miller attempts a lot of submissions per 15 minutes – 2.8 attempts for Miller, 1.6 attempts for Healy.

While I would give Jim Miller a slight advantage if this fight stays standing, I can’t get past his weak takedown defense. Pat Healy attempts takedowns early and often, and this fight is unlikely to be an exception. Unless Miller can land a takedown first, he’ll have to work from bottom position on the ground. Miller has a terrific Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, so it’s possible he could reverse position on Healy and possibly win by submission, but it’s going to be a battle for him. Right now, Miller is listed as a -320 favorite; if the statistics are any indication, that line is way off and Healy has a much better chance of winning than that. The one thing I will say is that Miller has faced much tougher opponents than Healy, and that might be skewing the numbers in Healy’s favor.