Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 174 Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

  • Demetrious Johnson over Ali Bagautinov
  • Rory MacDonald over Tyron Woodley
  • Ryan Bader over Rafael Cavalcante
  • Andrei Arlovski over Brendan Schaub
  • Ovince St-Preux over Ryan Jimmo
  • Daniel Sarafian over Kiichi Kunimoto
  • Valerie Letourneau over Elizabeth Phillips
  • Mike Easton over Yves Jabouin
  • Kajan Johnson over Tae Hyun Bang
  • Michinori Tanaka over Roland Delorme
  • Jason Saggo over Josh Shockley

YEAR TO DATE

Last Event: 9-2 (81.8%)

Year to Date: 137-72 (65.6%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: No wagers made

Current Bankroll: $83.91

Total Investment: $167.07

Total Return: $33.91

Return on Investment: 20.3%

I totally passed on last week’s UFC event, which turned out to be an unfortunate decision as my “leans” would have been profitable. Of course, that’s only true because Diego Sanchez was gifted an awful decision victory over the more deserving Ross Pearson.

For this event I have…

Ali Bagautinov +500: $3.00 to win $15.00 - I think Bagautinov probably will lose this title fight to Demetrious Johnson, but I also think he’s enough of a threat with knockout power and takedowns that there’s some value here at +500.

Rory MacDonald -110: $3.30 to win $3.00 - I wish I had pulled the trigger on this bet when MacDonald was offered at +120. As it stands, I think there’s still some value here with MacDonald at -110. If MacDonald is at his best, I think his combination of volume striking and takedown defense will be tough for Tyron Woodley to deal with.

Andrei Arlovski +145: $3.00 to win $4.35 - Arlovski started at -140 and is now +145. Apparently nobody believes in “The Pitbull”! I think it’s a coin flip fight and that makes a +145 price a pretty decent bargain.

Valerie Letourneau -110: $3.30 to win $3.00 - This is a bet made purely on market fluctuations, not on any knowledge I happen to possess. I don’t know nearly enough about Letourneau or Elizabeth Phillips, but what I do know is that Letourneau started at -190 and now is all the way down to -110. I can’t imagine the sportsbooks were that far off with their initial assessment.

I’ve also made a wager on Brazil to win the World Cup +300, risking $1.00 to win $3.00. This is a truly degenerate gamble as I am not a soccer expert in the slightest. However, a look at some online resources tells me that Brazil is the strongest team in the tournament on top of having the home advantage. That’s enough for me to think Brazil has an excellent chance of winning it all, but I’m not going to risk too much to find out if I’m right.

EDIT: I have added Rafael Cavalcante +170, $3.00 to win $5.10 and Ryan Jimmo +155, $3.00 to win $4.65 as those lines have moved enough for me to put some bets down.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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5 responses to “UFC 174 Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton June 13, 2014 at 3:49 pm

    My bets all at +money:
    4 units for each bet:
    Arlovski
    MacDonald
    Jimmo
    Calvacante
    Easton/ K. Johnson parlay

    Argentina wins World Cup.

  2. Howard Morton June 14, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    We are in the same boat now.

  3. Patrick H June 14, 2014 at 4:55 pm

    I have Jason Saggo, Michinori Tanaka, Kajan Johnson (as per your prediction). Keep up the good work.

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