UFC on Fox 12 Prediction: Dennis Bermudez vs. Clay Guida

At UFC 164, Clay Guida was matched up against the toughest opponent of his career to that point: Chad Mendes. (I say that with full knowledge that Guida has also fought Anthony Pettis.) Guida has historically been a fighter who relies on takedowns to win fights; if Guida can’t get the takedown, things generally don’t go well for him. In the UFC, Guida is 1-3 in fights where he fails to land a takedown, and the one win was by split decision against pure grappler Marcus Aurelio.

Against Mendes, Guida was facing an opponent with a career takedown defense rate of 100 percent and a very low rate of strikes absorbed. Sure enough, when the fight took place, Guida went 0 for 4 in takedowns, landed just 17 significant strikes and lost by third-round TKO. Guida’s striking just isn’t good enough to carry him when his wrestling fails. He needs takedowns to win, as takedowns and top control are how he wins at a high level, and how he defeated the current lightweight champion Pettis.

I bring up the Mendes fight because Dennis Bermudez is a poor man’s Mendes in some ways. Bermudez doesn’t have a perfect takedown defense rate, but he’s only been taken down twice in seven UFC fights, defending 91 percent of his opponents’ takedowns. He’s a tank of a featherweight, a fighter who can take strikers down and force grapplers to strike against him. He’s the best featherweight wrestler not named Mendes – and he’s better than Guida, who lands just 38 percent of his own takedowns.

In that respect, Bermudez is similar to Mendes. Where Bermudez goes wrong is that he’s not difficult to hit. He took 82 significant strikes in a wild back-and-forth match against Matt Grice (a fantastic fight, and it’s a shame that Grice had to endure a severe auto accident and coma afterwards). Max Holloway landed 75 significant strikes against him. Mendes shuts down his opponent’s offense while Bermudez just shuts down their takedown game.

For that reason, I think Guida can be competitive against Bermudez even if his takedown game fails. Now, Guida is frustrating to watch when he stands and strikes. There’s a lot of movement and a lot of hair flying around all over the place… but not a lot of strikes actually landed. This problem was most apparent in Guida’s loss to Gray Maynard, a fight that was universally panned afterwards. But against Bermudez, I can see Guida actually landing strikes and making things exciting.

But I can’t favor Guida. Not when his significant strike margin is a below-average -0.13 while Bermudez is at +1.31. Not when Bermudez could very easily take control of the fight with some takedowns of his own. Guida is a top ten featherweight and a fighter who can give almost anybody a tough fight, but against an opponent like Bermudez, it’s just the wrong style matchup for him.

Pick: Dennis Bermudez by decision

UFC 171 Prediction: Dennis Bermudez vs. Jimy Hettes

At first glance, the upcoming fight between Dennis Bermudez and Jimy Hettes might seem like nothing more than a fun fight between featherweights who have proven they belong in the UFC. If FPR is to be believed, then Bermudez and Hettes are more than just solid UFC featherweights – they’re not far from being upper-tier featherweights. Hettes is currently ranked #8 in the featherweight division in FPR while Bermudez is #11. Both fighters rate above Clay Guida, Ricardo Lamas, and Cub Swanson, among others.

For the most part, both fighters have achieved that status due to very effective overall grappling. Hettes is more of a submission fighter than a wrestler, but he’s developed some very effective techniques to get fights to the ground. In just four UFC fights, Hettes has landed a whopping 21 takedowns and has yet to be taken down himself (mostly because his opponents likely want nothing to do with his ground game). Those takedowns have led to 23 guard passes, six submission attempts, and two finishes – submission victories over Rob Whiteford and Alex Caceres.

It’s good for Hettes that he’s able to take fights to the ground, because his striking is very rough around the edges. Hettes has an overall significant strike count of 175-155, but most of his success came in a fight against Nam Phan. As we saw with Phan’s lopsided loss to Vaughan Lee a couple weeks ago, he’s a fighter who is very easy to hit – and in that fight, Hettes out-struck Phan 81-16 with a lot of strikes being landed on the ground.

Remove that fight, and Hettes’ significant strike count becomes 94-139, which I believe is much more indicative of his overall abilities as a striker. In other words, Hettes isn’t a natural striker at all and really needs to get fights to the ground if he wants to win.

When Hettes fought Marcus Brimage, he was a heavy favorite to win the fight but ended up losing by unanimous decision. The biggest reason for that was that Hettes was only able to land a takedown in one round out of three. Hettes won the second round of their fight but lost the first and third rounds. Hettes was just 2/9 in takedowns in that fight.

Now, in this particular match against Bermudez, I have a hard time seeing Hettes succeed much with takedowns. Part of that is because Hettes doesn’t have a long history of success with takedowns against good wrestlers. The other part is that Bermudez isn’t just a good wrestler – his takedown defense is among the very best in the featherweight division, arguably third best behind Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo. Bermudez has successfully defended 89 percent of his opponents’ takedowns overall.

In theory, I believe Bermudez should succeed in stuffing Hettes’ takedowns and winning a striking match. In practice, it’s possible that Bermudez simply chooses not to follow that game plan. Too often a wrestler will choose to take a fight to the ground even when it’s not the best idea for them. My fear is that Bermudez will take Hettes down, only to find himself in a world of trouble on the ground. Bermudez has had four submissions attempted against him in the UFC and all three of his career losses are by that method. His chin isn’t wonderful either, but I doubt Hettes will be the one to test it.

Ultimately, I have to favor Bermudez because of his ability to control where the fight takes place. If he’s smart, he’ll keep the fight standing and look to knock Hettes out or at least win on points. I expect Hettes to at least make it a good fight, but it’s not a good style matchup for him.

Pick: Dennis Bermudez by decision

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Bermudez is the favorite at -225, a price that makes a lot of sense to me. I wouldn’t want to pay too high a price on Bermudez, as he’s more prone to being finished than I would like to see. At the same time, I do think Bermudez’s wrestling makes him the favorite in this fight, so I have no intention of betting Hettes as the +175 underdog.

UFC 150 Post-Fight Analysis

As soon as the main event of UFC 150 ended, I went straight to updating SILVA scores. Naturally, I had just gotten started doing this when there was a power outage here in 110-degree Fresno. I’ll have updated SILVA scores later tonight or tomorrow. For now, here are my thoughts on the fights:

-First of all, the decision win for Benson Henderson over Frankie Edgar may be considered controversial by some, but not me. I personally scored the first round for Henderson, the second and fifth rounds for Edgar, and the remaining two rounds for who the hell knows. It was such a close fight that I would have been just fine with a draw (the UFC and the fans in Denver likely disagree). Perhaps Henderson deserved the slight edge, based on the significant strike data, but as I often say, not every significant strike is equal. (A quick look at Fight Metric shows different totals than were displayed on the UFC broadcast – 66 significant strikes for Edgar, 62 for Henderson.) As much as I would have loved a decisive conclusion here, sometimes that just doesn’t happen.

-Melvin Guillard nearly scored a quick knockout of Donald Cerrone, then was taken out with a quick kick to the temple and a follow-up right hand. Cerrone said in the post-fight interview with Joe Rogan that he knew Guillard would follow up his big punch with some knees, and I wish Guillard wouldn’t do that. His hands are what hurt people in the first place; he should use his punches to finish the job. But credit goes to Cerrone for recovering well from Guillard’s strikes to finish by a beautiful KO.

-Part of what makes fighters like Jake Shields successful is that they know what they’re good at, and stick to it. Shields is an excellent grappler and mediocre striker. He knows this, and therefore always tries to take fights to the ground, where he can out-grapple and perhaps submit his opponent. That’s why it was frustrating to see Ed Herman willingly clinch with Shields so much. Herman was clearly the better striker in my opinion, but he lost because he played Shields’s game.

-Props to Buddy Roberts for taking the fight to Yushin Okami, lighting up the former title challenger with a barrage of strikes early. Unfortunately for Roberts, he had no answer for the clinch and grappling of Okami. This should serve as a red flag for Okami, who has never been known for precision striking, but looked slow and ineffective with it against Roberts. His grappling is still very good, but he won’t be able to hang with the best at 185 pounds if he doesn’t tighten up that striking defense. By the way, I was completely fine with the referee stoppage; this is a regulated sport we’re talking about, and if Roberts can’t move while Okami is punching him from back mount on the ground, it’s checkmate.

-Max Holloway and Justin Lawrence were a little more patient and calculating than I expected, but they put on a great fight. And Holloway showed he has a pretty solid chin, because Lawrence hit him very hard a couple times early in the fight. Sadly, Lawrence’s conditioning held him back again, as he visibly faded in the second round before being stopped with a body shot. Great performance by Holloway, but one which probably extinguishes whatever hype Lawrence had behind him going in.

-Just like Dennis Bermudez said, it seems he can’t win a fight without getting hurt by a strike at some point. This time, it was a well-timed knee on the part of Tommy Hayden that put him down, but Bermudez did a great job of recovering to end up winning by submission. I was happy to see Hayden have more success in this fight than he did against Fabricio Camoes, but I have to question whether or not he has what it takes to compete in the UFC – he’s now been finished in the first round twice. As for Bermudez, I can’t get excited about his potential until he wins without getting decked.

-Just as I would hate to be a judge for the main event between Henderson and Edgar, I would hate to be a referee in one of Jared Hamman’s fights. The man takes so much punishment, and looks so awful in the process, but somehow just keeps fighting back. And he did land a huge number of strikes on Michael Kuiper – they just weren’t nearly as solid as Kuiper’s punches and leg kicks. Honestly, I’m a bit concerned about Hamman’s health if he fights for too long, as he seems to get knocked silly multiple times whenever he fights. By the way, great job by Kuiper in getting his first win against a quality opponent; here’s hoping we see him take on a tough wrestler next, and see if he’s improved that takedown defense.

-Ken Stone may be known for a fragile chin, but wow, Erik Perez took him out quickly. The stoppage was perfect in my opinion, as Perez knocked Stone out with one punch, and then woke him up with the next. Here’s hoping Perez’s next fight goes a little longer than 17 seconds so we can learn more about him.

-Chico Camus put together a solid performance in his UFC debut against Dustin Pague. Camus was caught in a couple tough situations, but did a good job of staying calm and not getting too close to being submitted. As for Pague, I’m sure he’ll get another chance in the UFC due to his willingness to fight on short notice, but at 1-3 in the UFC now, he really needs to win next time.

-Nik Lentz absolutely decimated Eiji Mitsuoka. Mitsuoka had no answer for any aspect of Lentz’s game. Lentz is probably an above-average UFC fighter at featherweight, but even with this win, I’m not sure about the idea of him making a title run. When he beats somebody like Ricardo Lamas, then we’ll talk. Mitsuoka, on the other hand, has had a quality professional MMA career, but I really got the feeling his chance in the UFC came too late, as he’s fought for 11 years and is now 36 years old. He really didn’t look like somebody who could hang in the UFC against Lentz.

Bonus Analysis: I was hoping that Bruce Buffer saying “It’s FIGHT time!” at UFC on Fox 4 was just some kind of slip on his part. It seems I was wrong. Why he changed his catch-phrase is completely beyond me.

SILVA Predictions for UFC 150

Apologies for the quiet week, everybody… I’ll try to get back on a regular blogging schedule starting next week. Here are the SILVA predictions for UFC 150 this Saturday:

 

Since I haven’t done any individual fight previews for this event, I’ll give some quick thoughts on each of the fights:

-At UFC 144, SILVA picked Frankie Edgar to beat Benson Henderson, but Henderson won a close decision. This time around, SILVA is picking Henderson, and I have a feeling it might be wrong again. Really, this is a very close and competitive match, and might simply come down to who the judges feel like giving the win to. I favor Henderson, but very slightly.

-To use some bad “MMA math” type analysis, Melvin Guillard fought a very close contest against Jeremy Stephens at UFC 119, which was a striking match. When Donald Cerrone fought Stephens, he was clearly better from beginning to end, again in a striking match. I do think Cerrone is both a better technical striker than Guillard, and a much, much better submission fighter. Guillard always has a chance to win by KO, and can never be counted out, but I feel it’s his only path to victory in this one.

-It’s been great to see Ed Herman rebound from injury nicely with a three-fight winning streak, but keep in mind that his wins – over Tim Credeur, Kyle Noke, and Clifford Starks – have not been against the cream of the crop in the UFC middleweight division. His opponent, Jake Shields, is in decline in my opinion, but has still only lost to Georges St-Pierre and Jake Ellenberger in his recent past. I’m picking Shields to win, because I consider him the better overall fighter, but Herman’s wrestling base and better striking could give Shields real trouble. Shields is not a safe pick by any means.

-Yushin Okami has often been listed by me as an overrated fighter on this website, and despite his loss to Tim Boetsch at UFC 144, I still consider him a bit overrated. However, I don’t think Buddy Roberts is the guy to beat him. I give Roberts credit for taking this fight on short notice, replacing Rousimar Palhares, but he’s going to have to find a way to out-strike Okami and prevent the fight from going to the ground. I don’t see that happening.

-SILVA doesn’t give much credit to Max Holloway or Justin Lawrence, but they should both be considered very good prospects, that SILVA hasn’t had time to figure out yet. I particularly like Holloway’s potential, as all of his professional MMA fights have been against experienced opponents, and he’s already had a lot of success. Since Lawrence doesn’t qualify for a SILVA score, there is no official SILVA prediction for that fight, but my personal prediction will be for Holloway to win, because I feel Holloway has better volume striking, and better conditioning.

-Dennis Bermudez is a very good wrestler, but one whose chin and submission defense are potential liabilities. His opponent, Tommy Hayden, has a good submission game, but is unlikely to find himself in good position on the ground against the better wrestler in Bermudez. I see Bermudez stifling Hayden in a similar fight to his last win, against Pablo Garza.

-Jared Hamman has a good SILVA score, but he’s an example of a fighter whose underlying performances are not that great. Either Hamman is blasted with strikes, as was the case against Costa Philippou and Alexander Gustafsson, or he suffers through trials by fire to find a way to win, as was the case against C.B. Dollaway. With that said, his opponent, Michael Kuiper, doesn’t have any history of winning against tough competition, despite his 11-1 record. His only truly tough opponent, Rafael Natal, was able to take him down repeatedly, although Kuiper did have a lot of success in the third round of that fight. Kuiper is a threat to win by knockout here, given Hamman’s chin, but my pick to win will be the more proven fighter in Hamman.

-It’s hard to gauge how good Erik Perez is by his last fight against John Albert. Albert was winning most of the first round before getting caught in an armbar attempt from Perez, and having the fight stopped prematurely in my opinion. SILVA is no help either – it charges all four of Perez’s losses against him, but three of those were by split decision. Without knowing enough about Perez, I’m going to pick him to win, as I think he’s a better fighter than his record and SILVA score indicate.

-Speaking of fighters I don’t know enough about, SILVA likes UFC newcomer Chico Camus to win his debut against Dustin Pague. Statistically speaking, their level of competition has been very similar, with Pague having fought a couple more tough opponents, and Camus entering with a better record. I’ll be learning about Camus during the fight, but based on the little I know right now, I expect it to be close and competitive.

-The one fight on Facebook, between Nik Lentz and Eiji Mitsuoka, features two fighters both overrated by SILVA. Lentz is overrated based on a draw against Thiago Tavares and a decision win against Tyson Griffin, both of which probably should have been decisions against him. Likewise, Mitsuoka has a majority decision win against Joachim Hansen, a win that helps his SILVA score a ton, but also a win he probably didn’t deserve. I do think Lentz will win this fight, as I expect him to dictate where it takes place, but Mitsuoka has a good submission game and shouldn’t be counted out.