UFC on Fox Prediction: Liz Carmouche vs. Miesha Tate

My analysis on this blog has not been particularly kind to Miesha Tate. I picked Ronda Rousey to beat her (not that I needed to be Nostradamus to make that pick), I picked Cat Zingano to beat her, and I picked Marloes Coenen to beat her. Two out of three ain’t bad I guess.

In this matchup I think I’m finally ready to pick Tate to win a fight, but it’s not because I see her as an overwhelming favorite. Tate is a very flawed fighter, particularly where her striking is concerned. Overall, Tate has landed 167 significant strikes and absorbed 286. She’s been knocked down three times – the only other current UFC women’s fighter to be knocked down even once is Sara McMann, and that just happened two months ago.

It’s clear that Tate needs to land takedowns to win fights. Fortunately, Tate sticks to that game plan relentlessly, constantly pursuing takedowns and submissions. She’ll need that tenacity to beat Liz Carmouche, who profiles as the better overall striker, although striking isn’t her strong suit either.

Like Tate, Carmouche is well known for her wrestling ability and her ground and pound in particular. Her strikes from top position helped her earn stoppage victories over both Jessica Andrade and Jan Finney. She’s landed 12 takedowns in seven fights and at least one against every opponent not named Ronda Rousey.

So who will have the advantage in takedowns when Carmouche faces Tate? It’s almost impossible to say. Both fighters have shown the ability to land takedowns, but neither has shown the ability to defend them. Carmouche has been taken down five times in eight tries, while Tate’s takedown defense is a dismal 23 percent. In Tate’s case, that number is virtually meaningless because almost all of the takedowns landed against her were by Rousey.

The only fair thing to say is that a takedown can go either way – but there is serious evidence to conclude that Tate is the more effective grappler. While Carmouche has landed 12 takedowns and passed guard 20 times, she’s only attempted two submissions in the UFC and Strikeforce. Her opponents have attempted four submissions against her and she’s lost by that method twice, against Rousey and Coenen.

(Moments like this are when I fully appreciate what a terror Rousey has been in this division.)

Tate has to be considered the more effective submissions fighter, and as strange as it might sound, I would point to her second fight against Rousey as evidence. Tate is the only fighter to show any ability to defend Rousey’s submissions – it took some real adaptation by Rousey to figure out how to finish Tate. Tate has won six fights by submission overall, and put a lot of pressure on the ground to opponents like Cat Zingano as well.

I don’t think striking will be much of a factor in this fight, because Tate will make sure it’s not a factor. It’s certainly possible that Carmouche can win the takedown battle and the fight, but since I think Tate is at least equally good at takedowns and better at submissions, I consider her the slight favorite to get the win in this one.

Pick: Miesha Tate by submission

UFC on Fox 8 Prediction: Jessica Andrade vs. Liz Carmouche

 

*FPR derived from video scouting due to lack of Fight Metric data.

Women will be leading off the UFC on Fox main card as former title challenger Liz Carmouche will compete for the second time in the UFC, against newcomer Jessica Andrade. The betting public doesn’t seem to like Andrade’s chances; she’s a +425 underdog at the moment. After watching Andrade on tape, I have to be brutally honest and say I don’t like her chances either.

First, let me mention what Andrade does well. She’s surprisingly good at throwing her opponent to the ground from the clinch, despite being a very small bantamweight fighter at just 5’2″. She hits pretty hard also, landing two knockdowns in the fights I saw on tape. Lastly, she has a good guillotine choke and has used it to win four of her 11 career fights.

Unfortunately, Andrade probably has too many flaws to be successful against high-level competition. One is her striking is just not polished at all. When she is hit, she has the tendency to reach out with her hands and look down. That’s a cardinal sin in the world of boxing and has caused Andrade to get hit by strikes repeatedly on a number of occasions. She is decent at throwing strikes but has no clue how to avoid them.

Andrade is also unpolished on the ground. It is not uncommon for her to land a takedown, only to get swept immediately. There are plenty of fighters who are good at the guillotine choke but not good at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. It appears Andrade is one of them. She hasn’t shown much ability to execute a classic “postion before submission” ground game. Instead, it’s Andrade who often finds herself in bad positions on the ground.

There are too many flaws in Andrade’s game for me to like her chances against Liz Carmouche. Now, before I continue I need to say something about Carmouche. Before her fight with Ronda Rousey, Carmouche was considered a curious choice to be the UFC’s first title challenger in the women’s bantamweight division. Carmouche was finished by first-round armbar like everybody Rousey fights, but not before Carmouche took Rousey’s back and attempted a neck crank.

It seems that one move has caused some people to regard Carmouche as an elite fighter at 135 pounds. Let’s not forget that Carmouche has also lost to Sarah Kaufman and Marloes Coenen. I regard Carmouche as a good but not great fighter, above-average but not elite.

I point that out to say that I don’t think Carmouche should be quite the betting favorite she is at -550. She should be the favorite for sure, but that price seems a bit inflated to me. I say this as somebody who has never proven the ability to beat the betting lines long term, so take that into consideration as well.

With that said I think Carmouche is easily the better striker and grappler… and probably the better wrestler as well, especially since she figures to be quite a bit bigger than Andrade. There’s a chance that Andrade could sneak in a guillotine choke or power punch to finish the fight, but otherwise, I see this being Carmouche’s fight to lose.

Pick: Liz Carmouche by TKO