Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Versus 4 Preview: Charlie Brenneman vs. Rick Story

Needless to say, this wasn’t the fight preview I was expecting to write tonight. Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman has taken Nate Marquardt’s place on literally one day’s notice to fight rising contender Rick Story. Brenneman enters with a 2-1 UFC record, 13-2 overall. Thus far in his UFC career, Brenneman has won decisions against Jason High and Amilcar Alves, while he was stopped by Johny Hendricks by TKO. I happen to think that Hendricks is one of the most underrated fighters in the division, so I’m not going to hold that one against Brenneman, but neither of his UFC victories really blow me away.

Now, I have to point out that it’s not like Brenneman was just sitting on the sidelines this whole time. In fact, Brenneman had been slated to fight T.J. Grant at this event until just Wednesday. So Brenneman should be in shape and ready to go; this isn’t a Mike Massenzio situation. The big question is: even at his best, can Brenneman beat Rick Story?

It certainly doesn’t look good. Brenneman has a wrestling background, but probably isn’t as good a wrestler as Story. Brenneman is 13-2 compared to Story’s 13-3, but Story has been fighting much tougher competition. I need to have a reason to favor Brenneman in this fight, and I’m just having difficulty finding one. For all of Brenneman’s wins, Story has a much better win.

For every Amilcar Alves, there’s a Thiago Alves.

For every Jason High, there’s a Johny Hendricks.

SILVA PREDICTION: RICK STORY (43.90) OVER CHARLIE BRENNEMAN (27.83)

Put simply, Brenneman isn’t ready for this fight. Rick Story is a fighter on the rise, an aggressive, tough fighter with a relentless style, who is now in his prime. I see as Brenneman as a fighter playing with house money here, so perhaps he can counter Story’s aggression with aggression of his own, and take the risks he needs to win. It’s just very, very hard to see it.

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