Identifying fighters who are either overrated or underrated according to SILVA is tricky, mostly because I don’t have the greatest record when picking against SILVA. With that said, I think I can find at least a few guys who are overrated by the system.
Click here to see the full list of SILVA scores that have been processed.
Matt Mitrione: 50.40 SILVA
I know, I’m hedging my bets here, because there really is a chance that Mitrione could take the heavyweight division by storm in the coming years. Still, SILVA is designed to be a stat that measures how good a fighter is RIGHT NOW, and the idea that Matt Mitrione is the third-best heavyweight fighter in the world, and better than Fedor Emelianenko and Junior dos Santos, doesn’t really sit well with me.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: 47.03 SILVA
Don’t get me wrong, Nogueira is a legend, but I have a hard time thinking he can be an elite fighter anymore. SILVA doesn’t take injuries or layoffs into account, so Nogueira is almost certain to be overrated going into his UFC 134 fight with Brendan Schaub. Schaub will be the betting favorite, and rightfully so.
Stefan Struve: 35.34 SILVA
SILVA gives Struve far more credit for his KO of Christian Morecraft than he deserves, especially because Struve lost the first round against Morecraft very badly before delivering the sudden KO in the second round.
Tim Sylvia: 32.67 SILVA
On one hand, Sylvia is still able to beat guys like Paul Buentello and Jason Riley. On the other hand, he likes to weigh in at about 310 pounds for his fights, and get beaten quickly and decisively by the likes of Abe Wagner.
Mark Hunt: 31.01 SILVA
Just as Struve gets too much credit for beating Christian Morecraft, Mark Hunt gets too much credit for his KO win over Chris Tuchscherer at UFC 127. SILVA also still gives Hunt credit for his split-decision win over Mirko Cro Cop at PRIDE Shockwave 2005. His submission defense is so bad that it’s hard to justify a SILVA score in the same realm as guys like Shane Carwin.
Vladimir Matyushenko: 43.86 SILVA
Matyushenko basically built up an elite rating by very consistently beating merely decent opposition. There’s nothing wrong with that, but every time Matyushenko’s been tested against a very good or better opponent, he’s fallen short. I don’t think Matyushenko’s bad or anything, I just don’t think he’s elite as SILVA would suggest.
I actually don’t think anybody else in the division is clearly overrated, although there are quite a few (Jon Jones) who are underrated.
Chris Weidman: 44.95 SILVA
Now, Weidman may well be a future champion, but at 6-0, he’s a little green to be considered the second-best middleweight fighter in the world, after Anderson Silva.
Costa Philippou: 34.19 SILVA
Philippou gets far too much credit for a win over Victor O’Donnell in the SILVA formula.
Wanderlei Silva: 33.52 SILVA
I really hate to list the legend here, but Wanderlei has just been fighting for too long now. His chin has gotten to the point where it’s just plain fragile.
James Head: 32.83 SILVA
Again, it’s one victory that has Head overrated in my opinion; namely, his win over Gerald Harris that earned him a spot in the UFC.
Matt Hughes: 43.66 SILVA
I think SILVA struggles badly with formerly great fighters on the decline. SILVA still thinks that Matt Hughes is an elite fighter, but along with being knocked out quickly by B.J. Penn, Hughes has struggled to beat fighters like Matt Serra and even Renzo Gracie.
Dan Hardy: 34.02 SILVA
Hardy earned this SILVA score with his win over Mike Swick, a fighter who’s only competed once since, due to a stomach illness. Hardy has severe stylistic problems against wrestlers, which is particularly bad in the shark tank of wrestlers called the UFC welterweight division.
Matt Serra: 32.90 SILVA
That win over Georges St. Pierre really did screw a lot of things up.
Clay Harvison: 30.05 SILVA
Harvison got a little too much credit for winning a split decision against Justin Edwards.
Paul Sass: 44.64 SILVA
Now, I would be thrilled to be wrong about this. I love seeing fighters who win fights by doing something completely different than anybody else, and Sass’s aggressive guard game qualifies. Still, with his best win to date being against Mark Holst, and with a style that is hard to envision working against, say, Ben Henderson, I have to say Sass is overrated for now. (Speaking of which, what’s going on with Sass? I’ve heard absolutely nothing since his win at UFC 120.)
Takanori Gomi: 43.46 SILVA
It’s possible that Gomi is still a good fighter, but with losses to Kenny Florian and Clay Guida, I think he belongs with Matt Hughes in the “faded legends” category.
Shane Roller: 32.51 SILVA
SILVA only looks at wins and losses; it doesn’t care how exactly a fighter won or lost. Because Shane Roller’s top-rated win was against Thiago Tavares, and Tavares had been thoroughly beating Roller until a sudden KO punch, I have no choice but to say that Roller is overrated.
Danny Downes: 30.89 SILVA
Once again, a fighter is overrated (in my opinion) due to a single quality win. For Danny Downes, it was a WEC win over Tie Quan Zhang that’s landed him here. Notice a pattern with who SILVA is overrating? You’d better believe that when I look to improve the system, that it’ll be with the idea of de-emphasizing the value of a single quality win.
Matt Grice: 30.16 SILVA
Grice gets way too much credit for his lone UFC win, against Jason Black. And by way too much, I mean way too much.
Leonard Garcia: 28.54 SILVA
The master of the bad split decision himself. Chan Sung Jung (21.22 SILVA) out-performed Garcia twice. Nam Phan (18.53 SILVA) out-performed Garcia. Garcia’s real level of performance should be around the 15.00 SILVA mark, not 28.54.
Jason Reinhardt: 23.76 SILVA
Yes, a 23.76 SILVA is a low number for a UFC fighter. Yes, I think Jason Reinhardt is overrated anyway.
Renan Barao: 43.85 SILVA
This is one of my less confident declarations of “overrated” by SILVA, because let’s face it, this is a man on a 26-fight winning streak, and that includes some real quality opponents. Still, Barao will need to beat somebody better than Cole Escovedo to justify a status as the world’s second-best bantamweight.