Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 137 Preview: Chris Camozzi vs. Francis Carmont

Chris Camozzi did not have the most fortunate of UFC careers. As a participant on the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Camozzi had to withdraw due to a broken jaw sustained in his qualifying fight against Victor O’Donnell. Despite this, Camozzi was given an opportunity to prove himself in the UFC, and he made the most of it, beating James Hammortree on the finale show, and following that with a split decision victory against Dongi Yang at UFC 121. However, after losing by quick submission to Kyle Noke at UFC 127, Camozzi was unceremoniously and surprisingly released from the UFC. It’s very rare for the UFC to cut a fighter with a 2-1 UFC record, but Camozzi proved an exception to that rule.

After his release, Camozzi took a fight against Joey Villasenor in the Shark Fights promotion. After a hard-fought battle, the judges ruled their fight a draw… at least, that’s what was initially believed. After the scores were announced, it was discovered that one of the scorecards was added up incorrectly… and the new result was that Camozzi was a winner by split decision. It’s the kind of thing that reminds people like me about just how pathetic the administration of MMA can be sometimes. One would think that adding 10 to 9 wouldn’t be that difficult, but I suppose you can’t put anything past these judges and regulators.

In any case, Camozzi’s win was enough for the UFC to invite him back, and his opponent will be Francis Carmont, a teammate of Georges St. Pierre. Carmont enters this fight with a 16-7 record, which already means he’s not a serious prospect of any kind. It’s very rare for a fighter with as many as five losses to become a UFC champion; when a fighter already has seven losses in 23 fights before even competing in the UFC, his chances of ascending the ladder and becoming a title contender are virtually nil. Still, for Carmont, this represents a great opportunity to put on some good fights, get noticed in the UFC, and make some money.

The thing about Carmont is: I’m not sure he’s good enough to stick around for a significant length of time. A look at Carmont’s fight history shows that Carmont loses to high-quality competition on a very consistent basis. Carmont’s best win according to Victory Score was a TKO win against Todd Broadaway at BodogFight in 2007. When Carmont faced opponents like Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos and Vitor Vianna, fighters who would struggle to survive on the fringes of the UFC, he fell short. In fact, Carmont even has a loss to Ross Pointon, whose current MMA record is just 6-12. Sure, Pointon has fought in the UFC, and has a fight against Michael Bisping on his record, but aspiring UFC contenders should not be losing to Ross Pointon at any point in their careers.

Despite everything I just said, Carmont barely edges Camozzi in Fight Level, 11.38 to 11.22. This means that SILVA will predict Carmont to win the fight. Fights like this are why I’m working on upgrading SILVA. Unlike Carmont, Camozzi has had success against quality competition, beating Hammortree, Yang, Villasenor, and Chad Reiner. It’s not exactly a murderer’s row, but those fighters are all better than anybody Carmont has managed to beat. Unfortunately, Camozzi is currently being held down by a loss exactly ten fights ago (the farthest back a fight remains in consideration by SILVA) to Nick Rossborough. I think Camozzi has proven he’s better than that.

Meanwhile, Carmont has shown throughout his career that when he fights somebody at Chris Camozzi’s level, he falls short of victory.

SILVA PREDICTION: FRANCIS CARMONT (21.38) OVER CHRIS CAMOZZI (21.22)

There’s no way I can go along with SILVA on this one. Chris Camozzi might not be one of the best fighters in the UFC, or even a potential contender, but at least he’s shown the capability of beating UFC-level talent. Carmont may be a teammate of Georges St. Pierre, and he may have a bunch of stoppage victories on his record, but there’s simply nothing in his fight history that suggests that he’ll survive in the UFC. Camozzi is my pick to win the fight.

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