Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

SILVA Update: UFC on Fox

Here are the new SILVA scores for the participants of the UFC on Fox show:

  • Junior dos Santos: 87.42
  • Ben Henderson: 84.39
  • Cain Velasquez: 77.08
  • Ricardo Lamas: 73.02
  • Mike Pierce: 70.42
  • Clay Guida: 65.41
  • Dustin Poirier: 58.85
  • Aaron Rosa: 53.81
  • Cub Swanson: 46.90
  • Norifumi Yamamoto: 44.20
  • Pablo Garza: 43.64
  • Paul Bradley: 43.40
  • DaMarques Johnson: 38.39
  • Cole Escovedo: 37.69
  • Robert Peralta: 31.85
  • Matt Lucas: 21.45
  • Darren Uyenoyama: 20.68
  • Clay Harvison: 20.21
  • Mackens Semerzier: 7.80
  • Alex Caceres: N/A

Despite beating Cole Escovedo in convincing fashion, Alex Caceres still does not qualify for a SILVA score. This is because the requirement for being given a SILVA score is having at least two wins against opponents with at least five career fights. Caceres may now have a career MMA record of 6-4, but the win over Escovedo was his first against an opponent with at least five fights worth of experience.

I do have to give Caceres respect. I’ve been bashing him, and bashing the UFC for giving him another chance to fight, but he actually delivered a very good performance against the veteran fighter in Escovedo. This doesn’t mean that I’ll consider Caceres to be one of the better bantamweights in the UFC; it simply means that I’ll try to give him credit for the skills he has shown in my future previews of his fights.

While SILVA predicted Junior dos Santos to beat Cain Velasquez, I never expected that he would do it in as short a time period as 64 seconds. There were two big concerns people had with Velasquez: one, that he showed a tendency to get hit hard in the Cheick Kongo fight, and two, that he had a relatively long layoff since his last fight, including a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. I don’t know, and won’t know, the effects of the layoff, but the first concern seemed to be validated, as dos Santos crushed Velasquez with a right hook to the ear. At this point, it’s hard to say if this is a result of poor striking fundamentals on the part of Velasquez, or if Junior dos Santos is just that good.

Ben Henderson is now the #2 lightweight in the world according to SILVA, and I’m very happy that he’ll be getting the next shot at the lightweight title against Frank Edgar. Right now, Edgar is the #1 lightweight and will be SILVA’s pick to win the fight, but Henderson has a blend of powerful wrestling and effective striking that will make him a very formidable opponent. I’m also thrilled that Henderson won, because let’s face it: after I wrote a whole post joking that I had created Henderson to be the anti-Guida, it would have looked really bad if he lost.

The two biggest underdogs on the card, both by the betting lines and according to SILVA, were Alex Caceres and Darren Uyenoyama. Both of them won their respective fights. It’s very much worth noting that Cole Escovedo and Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto have each been competing in professional MMA for ten years now. For those who are unfamiliar with my past work, I wrote a piece on Fight Opinion documenting the tendency of fighters who have been competing for at least nine years to decline, and sometimes collapse. In the near future, I’ll be taking a look at how such fighters have fared in the UFC in 2011.

SILVA 1.1 was 7-3 predicting UFC on Fox fights, and is now 15-5 since its unveiling prior to UFC 138. I fully anticipate that I will continue to update the new SILVA’s performance until it no longer looks good, at which point I will immediately stop talking about it.

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