If I told you that a fighter had a five-fight winning streak against Savant Young, Bryan Caraway, Yves Jabouin, Leonard Garcia, and George Roop, would you think that fighter was qualified to be given a UFC featherweight title shot against Jose Aldo? I certainly wouldn’t, but that didn’t stop the UFC from putting the Canadian fighter Mark Hominick against Aldo at UFC 129 in Toronto at the Rogers Centre. And while Hominick received all sorts of praise afterwards for his heart and for the way he finished the fight, the reality is that Hominick was beaten four straight rounds, in what was mostly a stand-up striking war, which is Hominick’s domain.
Now, Hominick has gone from fighting Jose Aldo (SILVA score: 91.75) to fighting the “Korean Zombie,” Chan Sung Jung (SILVA score: 26.01). If Hominick is really one of the top featherweights in the world, the UFC has a funny way of showing it.
The thing about Chan Sung Jung is that his name is much bigger than his resume suggests, entirely because of the war he put on with Leonard Garcia prior to the WEC pay-per-view event featuring Urijah Faber and Jose Aldo. As much as there was an extreme lack of technique in that fight, it was incredibly fun to watch, and while many including myself believed that Jung should have been awarded the decision, Jung became famous as a result of that fight.
Here’s my point: if you’re going to evaluate Chan Sung Jung as a fighter, you need to do it in an emotionless, dispassionate sort of way. Prior to entering the WEC, Jung went 2-1 in Sengoku, beating mediocre opponents in Shintaro Ishiwatari and Matt Jaggers while losing to the more respected Masanori Kanehara. Since being employed by Zuffa, Jung is 1-2, splitting a pair of fights with Garcia and being knocked out by a George Roop head kick.
If you’re like me, you think Jung won both fights against Garcia. That’s nice, but let’s face it… Leonard Garcia is a very low-level UFC fighter. When Jung stepped up to the George Roop level, he was knocked out in brutal fashion. This is why Jung’s SILVA score is so poor; he simply has not beaten any high-level opposition in his MMA career. (You can go back to the win over Michihiro Omigawa if you want, but Omigawa was 4-6 at the time of the fight.)
In fairness to Jung, after being knocked out by Roop, he stated that he would no longer fight with the “Korean Zombie” style, and bounced back with the submission win over Garcia, due to the “twister,” a submission never before seen in UFC history. As both of Jung’s Sengoku wins were also by submission, it stands to reason that Jung’s strongest area is on the ground, and it would behoove him to do his best to take Hominick, who is a good striker, to the ground as quickly as possible.
SILVA PREDICTION: MARK HOMINICK (43.18) OVER CHAN SUNG JUNG (26.01)
Then I look at Jung’s Fight Metric statistics, see only two attempted takedowns in his three-fight Zuffa career, and become very skeptical about his willingness to take Hominick to the ground. It’s quite possible that Jung has really changed his fighting style, which would be great, but even then, there’s no guarantee that Jung will have success in taking the fight to the ground. And if Jung is not successful, I anticipate Hominick will simply out-class him in the striking game.