Why SILVA Isn’t a Finished Product
December 13, 2011
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The SILVA scores page has just been updated following UFC 140, and while the scores moved mostly as one would expect (Chan Sung Jung moving up, Krzysztof Soszynski moving down, etc.), there was one new SILVA score that I’m going to declare right now is just plain wrong: Frank Mir has rocketed up to #3 at heavyweight with a SILVA score of 80.84. This is because the Victory Score statistic, the number that rates the quality of a win or loss, is still quite flawed. In the case of Frank Mir, he now has two wins against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and those wins are rated far too highly based on much of the success Nogueira has enjoyed in the past. Victory Score needs to be changed to reflect how good a fighter is right now, as opposed to how good he was throughout his career.
The result of having two wins over Nogueira is that Mir now has a Fight Level of 26.09, which is the highest of any fighter in the sport, even higher than the 25.87 of Georges St-Pierre. This is obviously wrong in my opinion, and so it’s back to the drawing board to attempt to refine and improve SILVA further, this time by improving Victory Score.
Unfortunately, because of the basic way I’ve put together spreadsheets containing all the data that goes into SILVA, an overhaul of the Victory Score statistic means that I basically have to start from scratch. The good news is that each fighter should require much less time and effort to calculate what will be his new SILVA score. Because this will take time, I plan on testing the new SILVA formula as events happen. I also plan on including a separate page on this website to list all new SILVA scores that are processed.