Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

TUF 15 Update: Episode Five Preview

After four episodes on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, out of 16 fighters, the fighters ranked #14, #15, and #16 in SILVA have won. Needless to say, I’m a bit exasperated at this point.

Last week, Myles Jury, SILVA’s #2 fighter, lost to Al Iaquinta, SILVA’s #15 fighter. In SILVA’s defense, Jury was as much as a 4-1 betting favorite to defeat Iaquinta. And despite Jury’s unwillingness to attack Iaquinta in the second and third rounds, the fight still went to that third sudden victory round, and that round was a split decision (although it seemed to me that Iaquinta won the third round pretty clearly).

Add that I was personally rooting for Jury, and it was a pretty frustrating episode for me, and a very frustrating season of TUF overall, although the fights themselves have been pretty enjoyable. In tonight’s episode, Mike Chiesa of Team Faber will take on Jeremy Larsen of Team Cruz. Here is the list of SILVA scores for the TUF 15 fighters:

Yes, I’m going to keep posting the SILVA scores. If you want to look at them as “who not to pick,” I can’t blame you for that. Regardless, once again, SILVA’s pick to win the fight, Mike Chiesa, is the same pick as the betting lines.

One thing I will say is that, in the past, I boasted of SILVA’s ability to narrow the TUF winner down to four fighters. If I apply that standard to this season, there’s still a chance that top-ranked John Cofer or 4th-ranked Chris Saunders could end up winning the season. To do that, they’ll need to get by Justin Lawrence, who doesn’t qualify for a SILVA score, but has clearly shown he’s one of the fighters to beat this season.


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