I’ve finally been able to finish updating SILVA from version 1.1.1 to version 1.2. This version of SILVA does the following things:
- It makes sure to penalize fighters for losing fights, even when those fights don’t qualify to be rated by SILVA
- It removes disqualifications from the system
Magnus Cedenblad is the perfect example of why I did the first thing. Cedenblad entered the UFC at 10-3, but none of his losses qualified to be rated by SILVA. As a result, SILVA treated him as undefeated, when he clearly didn’t deserve to be, and he was awarded a SILVA score of about 63.00. In SILVA 1.2, Cedenblad instead has a SILVA score of 42.85, which I believe is much closer to his actual level of performance.
For an example of why to remove disqualifications, simply think of Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill or Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami. I don’t think disqualifications are a good indicator of who the better fighter was.
In addition, I’ve done some re-branding of the two components of SILVA. Fight Level has been renamed “Win Quality” to reflect its purpose of estimating a fighter’s ability to beat elite competition. rAP has been renamed “Win Consistency,” because that’s exactly what it attempts to estimate. I think (hope) these terms will be much less confusing than they were before.
Here is a full list of SILVA scores.
Some quick notes on how things have changed from the Bellator and UFC events of the last couple weeks:
-Jon Jones now has the highest SILVA score in the sport, at 102.90. Rashad Evans drops to 86.92 with his loss, and has been passed up by Alexander Gustafsson, who rises to 88.67 with his win over Thiago Silva. Gustafsson is probably the light-heavyweight with the best chance of beating Jones right now, but I still don’t think his chances are better than 20-25 percent.
-Travis Browne is now rated #9 at heavyweight, ahead of Brock Lesnar and Fabricio Werdum. Browne remains undefeated, and now it’s time to put him against an elite (top 10) opponent to see what he’s really capable of.
-Cyrille Diabate has risen all the way to #16 at light-heavyweight with a SILVA score of 63.92. This is despite his UFC 138 loss to Anthony Perosh. While Diabate has had a mildly successful UFC career thus far, this is probably his ceiling as a fighter, given his struggles on the ground.
-Maiquel Falcao has surged to #12 at middleweight. This is a perfect example of why to always take SILVA with a grain of salt. I felt Falcao clearly lost two rounds to Slava Vasilevsky at Bellator 66, but the judges disagreed. The result is an inflated SILVA score, which does not properly estimate how good Falcao is.
-Rory MacDonald is now the #13 welterweight, which sounds about right to me. It’s time to put MacDonald against a high-level opponent (at least, somebody better than Che Mills), and if he wins, he’s in line for a title shot.
-Rick Hawn has risen all the way to #6 at lightweight. He’s looked awesome in Bellator’s lightweight tournament so far, and I think he has a great chance of beating Brent Weedman and giving Michael Chandler a great challenge for the Bellator lightweight championship.
-Shinya Aoki drops to #10, and I have a feeling that the longer he fights in North America, the more his rating is going to drop.
-Michael McDonald is now the #4 bantamweight, and could be just one fight away from a title shot.
-And I’ve saved the biggest one for last: Eduardo Dantas is now the #1 rated bantamweight, ahead of Dominick Cruz, based on his submission win over Zach Makovsky. Dantas probably got more credit than he deserved from beating Alexis Vila, but he’s clearly a great talent, and at the very least, one of the best bantamweight fighters in the world. Cruz is now the only UFC champion to not be the #1 fighter of his weight class in SILVA, but Cruz will probably take it right back if he’s able to beat Urijah Faber this summer.