Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

SILVA Predictions for UFC on Fuel 3

I’m not dead, and neither is this blog, although it certainly might seem that way. I’ll pull this all together eventually. For now, SILVA’s predictions for Tuesday evening’s UFC on Fuel 3:

Since I didn’t do full fight previews, here are some quick thoughts on this card:

-Before being knocked out by Eddie Yagin, Mark Hominick was probably the most overrated fighter in the UFC. Now that Hominick lost to Yagin, Chan Sung Jung has taken over the title of most overrated in the UFC, for knocking Hominick out in seven seconds at UFC 140. I hate to say that kind of thing about a fighter, but when I saw people arguing that Jung should be given a title shot, it just seemed absurd to me. Jung is definitely improved since ditching the “zombie” style and tightening his striking defense, but Poirier looks like the better striker and wrestler to me, and this is his fight to lose.

-On one hand, Amir Sadollah is a fighter who is merely treading water in the UFC, losing to fighters like Duane “Bang” Ludwig but beating low-level opponents. On the other, Jorge Lopez lost in his UFC debut to Justin Edwards. It’s not the most impressive co-main event ever, but I do think Lopez has some upset potential here, as Sadollah has never been the type to dominate in any of his fights.

-Jeremy Stephens might represent a tough style match for Donald Cerrone, in that he might be able to pressure Cerrone and either out-strike him or knock him out. The problem is that Stephens isn’t always a reliable striking machine, and has turned in a few dull performances in the past. Cerrone should definitely be the favorite to win, as he has some decent precision striking to go along with terrific submissions, and if this fight goes to the ground, Cerrone has a huge advantage.

-Yves Jabouin is not a terrific UFC fighter, and his striking is overrated, but it should be good enough to out-strike Jeff Hougland. Hougland may have looked impressive in his UFC debut, but it was against Donny Walker, and even then, it’s not like Hougland obliterated him. Jabouin should be able to keep the fight standing and win by TKO or decision.

-Fabio Maldonado vs. Igor Pokrajac is a battle of striking volume vs. striking power. Maldonado is a former professional boxer, and a fighter who will land a ton of strikes over a 15-minute period. Pokrajac doesn’t have the striking technique of Maldonado, but hits like a ton of bricks. One problem: Maldonado has never been knocked out. That should tilt things in Maldonado’s favor, but this is a competitive match, and one of the fights I’m most looking forward to on this card.

-I don’t know if I agree with SILVA’s prediction of Jason MacDonald over Tom Lawlor, but the style match of MacDonald’s submissions against Lawlor’s wrestling does seem to look decent for MacDonald. Lawlor should win based on better striking and wrestling, but MacDonald has a real chance to score a submission win here if Lawlor doesn’t fight smart.


4 responses to “SILVA Predictions for UFC on Fuel 3

  1. Nick May 15, 2012 at 5:47 am

    SILVA picking a lot underdogs on this card – Soto, Eduardo, Shalorus, LeVesseur, Yang, MacDonald and Lopez. Can’t wait to see these play out.

    • David Williams May 15, 2012 at 1:27 pm

      Yeah, no kidding. This could either be amazing or a complete disaster. Time will tell… I will say that LeVesseur has moved to being a favorite over McKenzie, and Curran-Eduardo is basically even.

  2. Howard morton May 15, 2012 at 7:24 am

    A lot of tough fights to call. Johny Eduardo and Alex Soto are 2 dogs I like.

    Jorge Lopez is a decent dog as is Carlo Prator and Jeremy Stephans for the price. Prator is +330 and Stephans +250 in Las Vegas.

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