One of the fights not getting a lot of attention on UFC 148 is the lightweight match between Fabricio “Morango” Camoes and “The Young Assassin,” Melvin Guillard. It might be because it’s scheduled for the preliminaries on FX, but the hype that Guillard had not too long ago really has evaporated. Camoes enters this fight at 14-6-1 overall, and 1-1-1 in the UFC, while Guillard enters at a very experienced 29-10-2 overall, and 10-6 in the UFC.
Camoes is a fighter whose base is definitely Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He particularly likes chokes: his last fight, a win over Tommy Hayden at UFC on FX 1, was by submission due to rear naked choke, and of his seven career submission wins, at least five are by some kind of choke. Camoes has a good ground game overall, and has a good awareness of positioning. He has decent ground and pound, and loves to take his opponent’s back. That’s what he did early in his UFC 111 fight against Kurt Pellegrino, as Camoes caught Pellegrino’s back in an early scramble, and was very close to cinching up a rear naked choke in that fight.
Unfortunately for Camoes, he lacks the well-rounded game needed to really make a name for himself in the UFC. It’s not that he’s incapable of striking – he knocked down Steve Lopez with a head kick – but it’s definitely not the strength of his game. Camoes does have a decent jab, and knees to the body, but he’s not a huge threat to win by knockout. His takedowns are also sub-par. Again, Camoes is capable of taking an opponent down, but he doesn’t have great technique, and often has to resort to grueling power moves to force his opponent to the ground. These moves, such as lifting his opponent and slamming him down, cost a lot of energy, and as a result, Camoes’s gas tank can be an issue at times as well.
His opponent will be Melvin Guillard, a fighter whose stock has dropped fast after two quick submission losses, to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, then to Jim Miller at UFC on FX 1. Guillard actually hurt Miller with strikes in the first round of their fight, but things turned quickly when Guillard threw a flying knee, which was caught by Miller, and used to take Guillard down. Miller swiftly passed into full mount, then took Guillard’s back and choked him out.
At this point, we know what Guillard brings to the table. He’s a very fast striker with terrific KO power, especially for the lightweight division. He’s also a good wrestler, and usually uses his wrestling to keep fights standing; Guillard is very hard to take down. His ground game, however, is a serious liability, as he’s lost by submission nine times, and Guillard is also known to suffer mental lapses in his fights. Flying knees in particular should not have been in his game plan against Miller.
With that said, it seems like the only way for Fabricio Camoes to win this fight is if Guillard has one of those mental lapses. Camoes is a very good submission fighter, and is much better on the ground than Guillard, but first he has to get it there. As long as Guillard stays away from the flying knees, he should be able to keep it standing against Camoes, who usually has a tough time landing takedowns with consistency. On the feet, it should be no contest. Camoes may have knocked Steve Lopez down with a head kick, but if he stands and trades with Melvin Guillard, he’s likely to be knocked out quickly.
SILVA PREDICTION: MELVIN GUILLARD (61.84) OVER FABRICIO CAMOES (60.57)
SILVA sees this as a Guillard win, but only by a narrow margin. Camoes is 8-1-1 in his last ten fights, so he’s not a pushover by any means, but I think this is a terrible style match for him. The best fighters to beat Melvin Guillard are grapplers who can get him down. Camoes is a grappler, but I don’t think he can get Guillard down. I like Guillard to keep it standing and win by knockout.