Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 152 Preview: Matt Hamill vs. Roger Hollett

If Evan Dunham and T.J. Grant are unhappy about not being on the main card, they have a legitimate gripe, since that’s a much higher level fight than this light-heavyweight contest between the returning Matt Hamill and debuting Roger Hollett.

 

Striking: Matt Hamill has a reputation for being a wrestler, but often chooses to stand and strike in his fights. When he does, he’s a fairly average striker by UFC standards. His boxing technique is not the best, and he doesn’t have great hand speed, but he does hit fairly hard. Hamill is a fighter who performs much better when he’s the one moving forward and putting pressure on his opponent. Fortunately for Hamill, his opponent, Roger Hollett, doesn’t have good boxing technique at all. Hollett tends to keep his hands low and telegraphs his punches. He has some knockout power, but as long as this fight is standing, it favors Hamill.

Wrestling: Hamill’s wrestling has been overrated through the years, but I think people have recently caught on to the idea that Hamill is not the dominant wrestler he’s been portrayed as in the past. Despite this, he’s still a fairly good wrestler, and if he chooses to take Hollett to the ground, I anticipate he’ll be successful at it. Hollett seems to be more of a physically strong guy than a good counter-wrestler, which might be good enough to keep fights standing and land takedowns at lower levels of the sport, but won’t be good enough against Hamill.

Submissions: Hollett has more wins by submission than by knockout, while Hamill has never won by submission. But that doesn’t mean Hollett has the advantage on the ground. Matt Hamill is just a fighter who prefers ground and pound over submissions, and has never been submitted himself. Hollett likes to go for armlocks and kimuras, but that’s very unlikely to work against Hamill. The most likely result of a ground match between these fighters is that Hamill will just beat Hollett up with strikes.

Prediction: Matt Hamill by TKO. I don’t want to dump on Roger Hollett too much, especially because he took this fight on short notice, but I don’t see him as a UFC-caliber fighter. Honestly, Hollett was probably just a second-tier light-heavyweight in his brief stint in Bellator. This is a bounce-back fight for Matt Hamill in my opinion.

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