Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

The Ultimate Fighter 16 ELO Ratings

It’s only four episodes in… right?

  1. Eddy Ellis (Team Carwin) – 2341
  2. Bristol Marunde (Carwin) – 2327
  3. Igor Araujo (Carwin) – 2230
  4. Sam Alvey (Carwin) – 2201
  5. Julian Lane (Nelson) – 2162
  6. Neil Magny (Carwin) – 2112
  7. Mike Ricci (Carwin) – 2100
  8. Nic Herron-Webb (Nelson) – 2087
  9. James Chaney (Carwin) – 2047
  10. Jon Manley (Nelson) – 2004
  11. Cameron Diffley (Nelson) – 2003
  12. Mike Hill (Nelson) – 1973
  13. Dom Waters (Nelson) – 1901
  14. Joey Rivera (Nelson) – 1838
  15. Matt Secor (Carwin) – 1806
  16. Colton Smith (Nelson) – 1693

Wow. This is total domination from Shane Carwin. I haven’t gone back to previous seasons of The Ultimate Fighter yet, but if I did, I bet I wouldn’t find any coach having six of the top seven fighters, with the possible exception of Rashad Evans against Rampage Jackson in season 10.

Now, for the top-ranked guy. I’ve said a number of times in the past that there are two types of fighters who don’t end up winning The Ultimate Fighter. One is an inexperienced fighter, somebody with less than five professional fights. The other is a fighter with a lot of losses. At 18-15-1 overall, Eddy Ellis is the latter. His career has been a strange one; he began 9-14-1, but is 9-1 since. That’s very uncommon.

Ellis might have made a dramatic career turnaround, but that 15 in the loss column still makes me squeamish. With that in mind, I have to pick Bristol Marunde to end up winning the show this season. Marunde is not just a highly-rated fighter, he’s a Strikeforce veteran who’s been in the cage with people like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. It doesn’t hurt that Marunde has already beaten Roy Nelson’s top-rated fighter, Julian Lane.

As for Nelson… eww. I can only imagine what his thought process was for selecting his team members. He got a boost from Joey Rivera beating Sam Alvey in an upset, but if ELO is any indication, it’s not going to be a fun season for his team.


2 responses to “The Ultimate Fighter 16 ELO Ratings

  1. Howard morton October 11, 2012 at 9:05 am

    I like all of the favorites at UFC 153 except for Davis. I think Prado will pull the TKO upset.

  2. Howard morton October 11, 2012 at 9:07 am

    And Drinaldo. He is another dog that will win.

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