Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Time Capsule Results For January 2012 Prognostications in MMA

Hmm… what’s this? It looks like a time capsule. And it says I need to open it up on New Year’s Day 2013. Uh oh…

Last January, I published a series of posts comparing a fighter’s SILVA score to his ranking in the Bloody Elbow meta rankings. I then used that comparison to make some predictions. For fighters whose SILVA score was high but ranking was low, I predicted their ranking would increase in 2012. For fighters whose ranking was high but SILVA score was low, I predicted their ranking would decrease in 2012.

Here are links to the posts I wrote last January:

Let’s see how I did, starting with fighters I predicted would rise in the rankings.

Fighter December 2011 ranking December 2012 ranking Did the rank increase?
Phil Davis 7 6 Yes
Daniel Cormier 8 4 Yes
Luke Rockhold 9 7 Yes
Michael Chandler 9 8 Yes
Bibiano Fernandes 9 6 Yes
Muhammed Lawal 11 14 No
Hector Lombard 12 11 Yes
Alexander Gustafsson 13 5 Yes
Ben Askren 13 12 Yes
Patricio Freire 15 25 No
Eduardo Dantas 15 11 Yes
Tatsuya Kawajiri 16 12 Yes
Tyron Woodley 17 18 No
Sean Sherk 17 Unranked No
Mike Russow 18 17 Yes
Rousimar Palhares 18 Unranked No
Johny Hendricks 18 2 Yes
Joe Warren 18 18 No
Cole Konrad 19 Unranked No
Alexis Vila 19 17 Yes
Matt Mitrione 20 Unranked No
Chris Weidman 20 2 Yes
Jay Hieron 20 17 Yes
Ryan Jimmo 22 17 Yes
Alexander Shlemenko 22 21 Yes
Josh Thomson 23 16 Yes
Ricardo Lamas 24 3 Yes

Overall, there were 27 fighters who were already ranked, who I predicted would rise in the rankings. 19 out of the 27 did improve, while the other eight either stayed the same or declined. That’s a pretty good success rate. Let’s see how I did with fighters I predicted would decline in 2012.

Fighter December 2011 ranking December 2012 ranking Did the rank decrease?
Chael Sonnen 2 6 Yes
Jon Fitch 2 4 Yes
Urijah Faber 2 2 No
Yushin Okami 3 9 Yes
Hatsu Hioki 3 7 Yes
Brock Lesnar 4 Unranked Yes
Mauricio Rua 4 7 Yes
Demian Maia 5 11 Yes
Jake Ellenberger 5 5 No
Marlon Sandro 5 15 Yes
Scott Jorgensen 5 10 Yes
Fabricio Werdum 6 3 No
Clay Guida 6 11 Yes
Shane Carwin 7 13 Yes
Forrest Griffin 8 12 Yes
Brian Stann 8 12 Yes
Martin Kampmann 8 7 No
Miguel Torres 8 20 Yes
Mark Hominick 11 Unranked Yes
Takeya Mizugaki 11 15 Yes
Joe Lauzon 12 12 No
Chan Sung Jung 12 5 No
Nate Diaz 13 4 No
Manny Gamburyan 13 20 Yes
Roy Nelson 14 10 No
Wanderlei Silva 15 25 Yes
Tito Ortiz 17 Unranked Yes
Stephan Bonnar 21 Unranked Yes
Mark Hunt 22 12 No
Pat Barry 23 Unranked Yes
Alessio Sakara 23 Unranked Yes

I had a similar success rate with fighters I predicted would fall in the rankings, as 22 out of 31 did fall, with nine either staying the same or rising.

Before you cry foul at guys like Brock Lesnar being listed, when we all knew he was retiring… it’s true, some of my picks here were cheap. In some cases, luck was on my side. But in other cases, luck was against me. Example: Urijah Faber still being ranked #2 at bantamweight, only because of Dominick Cruz’s injury. Another example: Joe Lauzon having the same ranking as last year, and he will presumably decline after his UFC 155 loss to Jim Miller.

Overall, there were 58 fighters I made predictions on. My predictions were successful for 41 out of the 58, for a success rate of 70.7%. I’m not running SILVA scores anymore, but it’s great to see that the time I spent developing them resulted in what was a pretty good predictive tool.


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