Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Where to Find My Thoughts on Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz

My write-up on the UFC 158 main event between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz won’t be found here. Instead, I’ve been given the invitation to post it on Jason Somerville’s blog, Bad Beats Crew. If you’re unfamiliar with Somerville, he’s a professional poker player, and a pretty darn good one at that. Tune in to any poker show on TV, and there’s a fairly good chance you’ll see Somerville at some point.

Somerville is also a big UFC enthusiast, and has enjoyed my work in the past, so he offered to place my write-up of the main event on his blog. Click here to go check it out, and see why I give Nick Diaz a better chance of winning this fight than a lot of people are giving him credit for.

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6 responses to “Where to Find My Thoughts on Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz

  1. FatTwitterMan March 15, 2013 at 10:54 pm

    Where are you getting this idea that Nick Diaz is any threat at all to submit GSP? GSP is miles better than Guyborg, Mach Sakurai, or Josh Neer, the last three people Diaz submitted. I don’t remember the Sakurai or Neer fights, but Guyborg ate a lot of Diaz Arm Punches before diving into a sub like Jim Miller did against Nate.

    Can you name one case where Diaz actually threatened a strong wrestler from his back?

    I think 5/1 odds are generous in Diaz’ favor. Even if your theory about GSP’s “decline” is true, Nick isn’t close to being the person to test it, on the feet or on the ground. If he hadn’t been protected from wrestlers by Strikeforce, he wouldn’t even be a top 15 UFC WW today, and would most likely be being outwrestled by Matt Riddle in Legacy FC.

    • David Williams March 16, 2013 at 3:12 am

      Wow, I hate to think what you would be saying if I had actually picked Diaz to win. If you want me to do the same thing as everybody else, and simply talk about how there’s nothing Diaz can do to GSP, then sorry. I find it much more interesting to explore the possible ways Diaz can win. And one thing in particular I noticed was that Condit attempted a few armbars on GSP from his back, and that’s a technique Diaz is particularly good at.

      Do I think Diaz will actually catch GSP and win by armbar? No.

      Do I think it’s POSSIBLE that Diaz can catch GSP and win by armbar? Yes. How possible? I don’t know, but certainly less than five percent. It’s not how I think the fight is going to go, it’s just speculation on one possibility.

      In other words, I assume you don’t give Diaz a 0% chance of winning this fight. If Diaz WAS to win, how would he get the job done? The armbar is ONE of a myriad of possibilities.

      • FatTwitterMan March 16, 2013 at 11:08 am

        The question, I guess, is do you think Diaz has a greater than 20% chance of winning? Because that’s what Vegas thinks, and that’s as close to a consensus as I can find. You say you give Diaz “a better chance than a lot of people”.

        I hear what you’re saying, but I don’t see Diaz catching the sub without having softened GSP up on the feet first. How often does a top level fighter get submitted from the guard without having taken a lot of damage first (most Diaz victims) or being tired out (Chael Sonnen’s triangle losses). GSP isn’t going to get tired or lit up on the feet and Diaz isn’t anything close to being a Demian Maia or a Roger Gracie from his back either. I can see Diaz winning (though he has less than a 20% chance in my mind), but catching GSP like you describe is not the way it would happen.

      • David Williams March 16, 2013 at 1:16 pm

        I told Jason that I think Diaz’s chances are more like 22-25%. Not too much higher than what Vegas thinks, but a lot higher than a lot of people think, since there are a lot of people putting their money on GSP at -450 or higher.

        Who knows, they might be right. And I will admit that I like to go against the grain – it’s more fun that way. We’ll see what happens.

  2. Howard March 16, 2013 at 3:50 am

    Diaz has a 5% chance of winning. If he and GSP fought 100 times Diaz would win 5 out of 100. I actually love “fight does not go to decision “at +200.

    • David Williams March 16, 2013 at 1:12 pm

      Well, needless to say, I give Diaz a better chance than that, but you might be right. The thing is – even if Diaz has more like a 22-25% chance as I think, it’s most likely that GSP will win tonight. I’d love to see these guys fight 100 times to see what happens, but sadly that’s not how the world works.

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