Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 159 Betting Picks

Last week, I made the horrible decision to give out some betting picks for UFC on Fox 7. Amazingly, those picks turned out to be quite good. I’m sure it’s time to quit while I’m ahead, but I’m back for some more betting picks, where I will probably lose all of my imaginary profit and then some.

Before I get started, I need to put out a disclaimer. I make no guarantees that any of my picks will be profitable, and if you decide to make bets based on my picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. This post is intended for entertainment purposes only.

To see all the current betting lines on the fights, there’s no better resource to go to than Best Fight Odds. Check it out.

 

Here are my picks:

-I think Michael Bisping has a great chance of beating Alan Belcher. It’s very likely that Bisping will land more strikes and takedowns than Belcher, which makes him a very likely winner if the fight goes the distance. In my opinion, Belcher needs to finish this fight if he wants to win, and while that’s a possibility, there’s a possibility that Bisping can finish Belcher as well. In short, I think Bisping should be a very solid favorite here, and with the current price on Bisping at -170, I think it’s definitely worth a bet.

-In my preview post, I went against everything I believe in and picked Roy Nelson to knock out Cheick Kongo. At the same time, I still think Kongo has a very good chance of winning this fight. Again, when Nelson goes beyond the first round, he gets exhausted and eats way too many strikes. If Nelson doesn’t get the knockout, I think Kongo will get the decision. There’s some definite value on Kongo at +215 in my opinion.

Jim Miller is a better overall fighter than Pat Healy, and I think would beat Healy in a pure kickboxing match or a pure grappling match. But in MMA, the fighter who lands takedowns often wins the fight. I do think Healy will land takedowns on Miller here, and that fact alone makes me like Healy as a value bet at +275.

-Part of me thinks it’s a horrible idea to place any of my imaginary money on Leonard Garcia in any situation. The other part of me thinks there’s no way he should lose to Cody McKenzie, which makes the current -185 price a steal. I’m going to compromise with myself and go with a small play on Garcia, but it’s hard for me to have a lot of confidence in it.

-I like Bryan Caraway to upset Johnny Bedford tomorrow, but since Caraway is taking the fight on short notice, I think it’s a good idea to place only a small bet on Caraway at +135.

Yancy Medeiros is a mystery to almost everybody, but I feel I have a better grasp of what he can do than most people, since I saw him compete live three years ago. After a three year layoff and dropping two weight classes, I can’t pick Medeiros to beat Rustam Khabilov outright. But I do feel like it would be a wasted opportunity not to put any fake money down. It will only be a flier, but I like Medeiros at +260.

 

Other picks I thought about:

-I have to admit that Chael Sonnen at +725 is tempting. It’s not often that a world-class fighter is such an enormous underdog. At the same time, Jon Jones represents about the worst stylistic opponent imaginable for Sonnen. There’s perceived value, and then there’s just wasted money, so I’m going to pass.

Sara McMann might be a great wrestler, but she’s not a very good striker. There’s absolutely a chance that Sheila Gaff will knock her out. A flier on Gaff by KO/TKO at +925 is tempting, but again, any fake money I place on that is probably money down the drain.

 

Here’s a recap of my (imaginary) bets:

Bet Risk To win
Michael Bisping 1.7 units 1 unit
Cheick Kongo 1 unit 2.15 units
Pat Healy 1 unit 2.75 units
Leonard Garcia 0.93 units 0.5 units
Bryan Caraway 0.5 units 0.68 units
Yancy Medeiros 0.1 units 0.26 units

Again, this post is just for fun. If you make any bets using these picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. Enjoy the fights!

 

Last week: +2.1 units

Overall: +2.1 units

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2 responses to “UFC 159 Betting Picks

  1. Howard April 27, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    I like a 3 team parlay of Davis, Bisping and Jones.

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