Surprisingly, my first two forays into making betting recommendations for UFC fights have both turned out to be successful. My picks were good for a 2.1 unit profit at UFC on Fox 7, and a 2.4 unit profit at UFC 159, for +4.5 units overall. It’s a good start, but I have a long way to go before I can say I have a “proven track record” or anything.
Before I get started, I need to put out a disclaimer. I make no guarantees that any of my picks will be profitable, and if you decide to make bets based on my picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. This post is intended for entertainment purposes only.
To see all the current betting lines on the fights, there’s no better resource to go to than Best Fight Odds. Check it out.
Here are my picks:
-I think a lot of people are underestimating what Luke Rockhold can do on the feet. Rockhold is very good at using his height and length to not get hit cleanly, and is a fairly active striker offensively as well. He throws a diverse arsenal of kicks along with well-timed punches. As long as he decides to stand and strike with Vitor Belfort – and I believe Rockhold will – I think Rockhold can at least win on points, and possibly win by TKO. Of course, Belfort is always a threat to win by knockout, but because Rockhold is just 28 years old, I think he’s less susceptible to being knocked out than Belfort’s last four KO victims: Michael Bisping (33), Yoshihiro Akiyama (35), Rich Franklin (34), and Matt Lindland (38). If Rockhold weathers the early storm, he probably wins, and I think he’s worth a bet at -125. With that said, I have such respect for Belfort’s power that I’m only willing to make it a small bet.
-On paper, I see the fight between Evan Dunham and Rafael dos Anjos as being basically even. Dunham should be able to land more strikes, but Dos Anjos is likely to land more takedowns. In the end, I picked Dos Anjos because I believe the judges tend to reward the fighter who lands takedowns, and are also likely to reward the Brazilian fighting in Brazil. But I only favor Dos Anjos by the slightest of margins, and that means with Dunham a +170 underdog, he presents some definite value.
-There are two fighters who I believe match up extremely well with their respective opponents. I think Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza won’t have too much trouble taking down and possibly submitting Chris Camozzi. If Kyle Noke could do it, Jacare can do it. I also think Francisco Trinaldo has an excellent chance of beating Mike Rio. As long as Trinaldo defends Rio’s takedowns, and I think he will, Trinaldo should prove to be much better on the feet. I feel pretty good about putting Jacare and Trinaldo in a parlay; doing so gives them a -185 price.
There are other picks I thought about (as always) but I’m just not confident enough in them to put any (imaginary) money down. In particular, Hacran Dias at +110, John Lineker at -120, and Chris Cariaso at +120 are all tempting to me, but not tempting enough to overcome my relative lack of confidence in those picks.
Here’s a recap of my (imaginary) bets:
|Ronaldo Souza-Francisco Trinaldo parlay
Again, this post is just for fun. If you make any bets using these picks, you’re doing it at your own risk. Enjoy the fights!
UFC 159: +2.4 units
Overall: +4.5 units