UFC 163 Predictions
August 2, 2013
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I’m afraid I can’t be of much help for this event. The fight card features a lot of fighters who are either inexperienced or making their UFC debut. It badly requires a lot of tape scouting but I didn’t have the opportunity to do any scouting this week. I’m left with FPR numbers, which really work best when both fighters in a match have at least 60 minutes of Fight Metric time. As you’ll see, that’s only the case for one out of the 12 fights to take place at this event:
That’s a lot of low-confidence projections! I don’t think the list of projected winners is all that bad, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in the actual percentages, especially for fights like Cezar Ferreira vs. Thiago Santos. This will be an event that’s much more about learning the fighters than showcasing my prediction skills.
I didn’t have the guts to actually pick Perosh to win on Sherdog. I do think Perosh might be the better overall MMA fighter, because his striking is merely “bad” as opposed to “atrocious” for Magalhaes. I just can’t trust Perosh to win that fight for the following reasons:
- I don’t trust Perosh to follow a smart “sprawl and brawl” style game plan.
- Magalhaes is clearly better than Perosh where Perosh is best (BJJ)
- Perosh is 41 years old
As for the only fights I have confidence in, I believe Phil Davis and Chan Sung Jung will be more competitive than the betting lines indicate, but I still like their counterparts (Lyoto Machida and Jose Aldo) to win.
Enjoy the fights, and I promise I’ll have a more thorough breakdown of UFC Fight Night 26, scheduled to take place on August 17th.