Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night 26 Prediction: Travis Browne vs. Alistair Overeem

Browne-Overeem

 

Travis Browne Fight Metric profile

Alistair Overeem Fight Metric profile

I’m very short on time so I’m going to keep this write-up brief.

Let’s assume for now that the Alistair Overeem who shows up on Saturday will be the average Alistair Overeem we’ve seen compete at heavyweight.

That fighter is easily a better striker than Travis Browne is. Browne hits hard, but let’s look at the numbers for a minute. Browne is nearly even in significant strikes overall. He was out-struck 58-22 by Cheick Kongo and 15-8 by Antonio Silva. If you’re inclined to believe Overeem is a better striker than either Kongo or Silva (and I am), then Overeem should easily win a striking match against Browne.

I also expect this fight to mostly be a striking match. Overeem surprisingly chose to take Silva down in his last fight, but most of his fighting has taken place on the feet in his recent MMA career.

Both fighters could win by knockout with any one strike, but I expect Overeem to easily land more strikes than Browne does. In 15 minutes, if Overeem lands 70 strikes and Browne lands 30-35, Overeem has to be considered the clear favorite.

The biggest concern people have about Overeem is what kind of shape he’s in after his positive test for elevated testosterone and diminished physique, performance, and testosterone level in February against Silva. These are valid concerns but I would also mention that Overeem was easily up two rounds against Silva. Before bulking/roiding up to heavyweight, Overeem had a reputation for being one of the best fighters in the world for five minutes. Then he would inevitably get exhausted and then finished by an opponent.

That’s pretty much what happened against Silva. Overeem gassed out and then got knocked out. This isn’t a new thing for Overeem’s career.

There’s certainly a chance that Browne could put Overeem away, but in what figures to be a striking match I have to favor Overeem pretty strongly.

Pick: Alistair Overeem by KO

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