UFC Fight Night 32 Predictions Summary
November 8, 2013
Posted by on
Before you run off to make your predictions on Sherdog or Tapology or especially the sportsbook, there are a few things to keep in mind here first:
-Yes, FPR is giving Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante a 94 percent chance of beating Igor Pokrajac. Every projection I make comes with a margin of error based on the confidence level. For the purposes of finding betting value it’s better to consider “Feijao” an 84 percent favorite, allowing for a 10 percent margin of error. The margin of error I use is 5% for high confidence, 10% for medium confidence, 15% for low confidence, and infinity for very low confidence.
-I’m attaching the “very low” confidence level to Paulo Thiago vs. Brandon Thatch and I’m picking Thatch to win the fight on Sherdog. Thatch is currently a -330 favorite to win the fight. As a statistician I have to ask the question: what’s more significant, my whole one minute of data on Thatch or the sophistication of the betting markets? The answer is obviously to follow the betting markets and take Thatch to win.
-The same logic applies for Thiago Perpetuo vs. Omari Akhmedov. I’m picking Akhmedov to win the fight because he’s a strong betting favorite.
-Degenerate gambling picks for this event are: Rafael Cavalcante, Dan Henderson, Jeremy Stephens, and Justin Salas, in that order. Best of luck and enjoy the fights!