Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Fight Scores: UFC Fight Night 31 and 32

Note that Fight Metric hasn’t posted the statistics for some of the UFC Fight Night 32 prelims yet. As soon as those stats are up I’ll update this post.

EDIT: All Fight Scores are now posted.

Fight Score Legend

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 31 (Fight for the Troops 3)

+63.13 Derek Brunson def. Brian Houston by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), 0:48 round 1

The numbers get goofy when one fighter defeats another within a couple minutes, as you’ll see with Belfort-Henderson.

+16.35 Yancy Medeiros def. Yves Edwards by KO, 2:47 round 1

I’ve been hyping up Medeiros and he mostly lived up to my hype against Edwards, but he also absorbed more strikes than I would have liked to see.

+8.74 Bobby Green def. James Krause by TKO, 3:50 round 1

The entire difference between Green and Krause was the controversial kick that ended the fight. I’ll never forget watching the Affliction show with Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski as the main event. Green fought Dan Lauzon on that fight card, and Green’s fighting style was listed as “hood.” He proceeded to hit Lauzon low at least three times in the round. All I could think was “I guess that’s what they mean by hood.” Green seems like a nice enough guy but with all the low blows it’s a disqualification or no contest just waiting to happen.

+8.14 Amanda Nunes def. Germaine de Randamie by TKO, 3:56 round 1

De Randamie still looks like a kickboxer competing in MMA, as opposed to a mixed martial artist.

+7.82 Tim Kennedy def. Rafael Natal by KO, 4:40 round 1

Similar to Green-Krause, the entire difference in this fight was the strike Kennedy landed to knock Natal out.

+7.27 Dennis Bermudez def. Steven Siler by Decision (Unanimous)

Siler showed he doesn’t have an answer to a strong wrestler when he was controlled by Darren Elkins for three rounds. He fought back with some submission offense against Dennis Bermudez but it wasn’t nearly enough. With such poor takedown defense and counter wrestling Siler’s upside is very limited in the UFC.

+5.32 Yoel Romero def. Ronny Markes by KO, 1:39 round 3

I was right about Markes having the more effective takedown game than the Olympic silver medalist in Romero. I was wrong that it would be enough for Markes to win the fight. If Romero’s identity in MMA is going to be as a world-class athlete with tremendous knockout power, that works too.

+4.43 Francisco Rivera def. George Roop by KO, 2:20 round 2

I know that this loss makes George Roop 2-1 in the bantamweight division. I don’t care. He really should consider going back up to 145 pounds. The combination of an already shaky chin and cutting too much weight equals a knockout loss waiting to happen.

+3.17 Rustam Khabilov def. Jorge Masvidal by Decision (Unanimous)

Khabilov showed that he’s for real in this fight. Masvidal is one of the better fighters in the UFC lightweight division and Khabilov out-performed him in a 15 minute fight. This wasn’t a gimmicky win like his first two in the UFC – he was just better at mixed martial arts than Masvidal. That’s a great sign for a quickly rising star.

+1.42 Michael Chiesa def. Colton Smith by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), 1:41 round 2

This is a Michael Chiesa special – lose the first round, come back with a vengeance to win the fight by submission. Smith might be the winner of TUF 16 but he’s now 3-3. If he keeps losing it will be awful hard for the UFC to justify keeping him around.

+0.87 Alexis Davis def. Liz Carmouche by Decision (Unanimous)

I don’t know if it was “first-time Octagon jitters” or just an off night but it’s clear that Davis is a better fighter than the woman we saw beat Rosi Sexton earlier this year. With a win over Carmouche, Davis has to be considered one of the top contenders to challenge for Ronda Rousey’s title… after Rousey beats Miesha Tate… and Cat Zingano.

+0.53 Seth Baczynski def. Neil Magny by Decision (Unanimous)

-1.80 Lorenz Larkin def. Chris Camozzi by Decision (Unanimous)

Here we see one of the limitations of Fight Score/FPR. There’s no way for it to differentiate among significant strikes. A haymaker to the chin counts the same as a light kick to the thigh. Watching live it seemed clear that Larkin was the more effective fighter than Camozzi. With that said it is a bit of a concern that Larkin fought Camozzi for 15 minutes and Camozzi landed 18 more significant strikes than Larkin. It’s hard to tell if that’s predictive of future outcomes or not.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 32

+69.74 Vitor Belfort def. Dan Henderson by KO, 1:17 round 1

This was the last fight on Henderson’s contract. He should think long and hard before signing a new one. It’s obvious that TRT has extended the careers of both fighters here, particularly Henderson, who is now 43 years old. Obviously losing by KO to Vitor Belfort is hardly a red flag but Henderson is now at the age where nobody in MMA has ever had significant success. Before you say “Randy Couture” look at Couture’s record when he was 44 and older. He had an impressive win against Gabriel Gonzaga but then lost all his big fights after that. Couture did beat Brandon Vera but many thought Vera deserved the victory in that fight. If Henderson’s goal is to become a UFC champion to go along with his PRIDE and Strikeforce championships… then I’m sorry but that’s not going to happen. Henderson should retire now before he takes unnecessary punishment at an advanced age. And I say this as somebody who’s been a big fan of Henderson over the years.

Belfort clearly has broken my FPR model. He’s at the extreme high end of knockout power in MMA and that has overcome his deficiencies in takedown defense and conditioning. With that said I’ll be picking against him again if his next fight is against Chris Weidman or Anderson Silva.

+59.25 Jeremy Stephens def. Rony Jason by KO, 0:40 round 1

I didn’t understand why Jason was a 2-1 favorite to win this. Here are the men Jason has defeated in the UFC: Godofredo Pepey, Sam Sicilia, and Mike Wilkinson. A quick KO loss doesn’t tell us a whole lot about how Jason would perform against tougher competition, but it’s a lot worse than a quick KO win, that’s for sure.

+36.15 Rafael Cavalcante def. Igor Pokrajac by Submission (Strikes), 1:18 round 1

I thought for sure Pokrajac would be cut after his lopsided loss to Ryan Jimmo earlier this year. If this loss doesn’t send him out of the UFC nothing will. Pokrajac was already the lowest-rated UFC light-heavyweight in FPR by a wide margin. Even more so now that he got crushed by “Feijao.”

+17.08 Brandon Thatch def. Paulo Thiago by Submission (Strikes), 2:10 round 1

I was really hoping to see this fight last longer just so I could get more data on Thatch. I also want to see what would happen if Thatch didn’t crush his opponent inside the first round. He’s clearly a scary opponent for almost anybody at 170 pounds right now.

+14.41 Sam Sicilia def. Godofredo Pepey by TKO, 1:42 round 1

+10.25 Thiago Tavares def. Justin Salas by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), 2:38 round 1

+9.50 Ryan LaFlare def. Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision (Unanimous)

I’m aware that LaFlare’s first two UFC wins were against mid-level TUF contestants in Benny Alloway and Santiago Ponzinibbio. LaFlare’s performances have been extremely impressive regardless. Keep an eye on him.

+5.05 Adriano Martins def. Daron Cruickshank by Submission (Armbar), 2:49 round 2

+2.48 Dustin Ortiz def. Jose Maria by TKO, 3:19 round 3

+2.23 Cezar Ferreira def. Daniel Sarafian by Decision (Split)

Ferreira wins by decision with 15 significant strikes landed in 15 minutes. It’s hard to get too excited about either fighter here to be brutally honest.

+0.43 Omari Akhmedov def. Thiago Perpetuo by KO, 3:31 round 1

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