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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
It’s nice to have a lot of high-confidence projections for a change. At the same time there are some things I need to say about the above numbers.
First of all, I’m not buying Chael Sonnen as a 9-1 favorite to beat Rashad Evans. FPR thinks Sonnen should be the overwhelming favorite because of a massive difference in significant strikes landed and received. However, I believe most of Sonnen’s edge in that category comes from establishing top position on the ground, which should be harder to do against Evans than it has been against most opponents. I’m picking Sonnen to win and I feel good about it, but not so good that I can get behind FPR’s projection here.
The projection I can get behind is Rory MacDonald as a 91% favorite to beat Robbie Lawler. There’s a lot of support out there for Lawler and I don’t really understand why. Of course there’s a chance he knocks MacDonald out but I just feel like MacDonald only needs to put Lawler on his back to win.
I think Tim Elliott isn’t as good as FPR thinks.
I’m also picking Gian Villante to beat Cody Donovan on Sherdog. I have seven minutes’ worth of data for Donovan and that just isn’t enough to think my opinion is more sophisticated than that of the betting public.
Degenerate gambling picks for this event are: Chael Sonnen, Rory MacDonald, Tyron Woodley, Evan Dunham, Ed Herman, and Rick Story, in that order. All but Sonnen and MacDonald barely make the cut so don’t go too crazy.
As always, best of luck and enjoy the fights!