Quick Preview of Changes to FPR
November 21, 2013
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Some recent events have made it clear that as good as FPR has been it needs to be updated. Here are the changes that will be made:
-I am adding a category for finishes and being finished. I believe FPR underrates finishers and overrates fighters who win by decision. If you’re a fan of Roy Nelson, Vitor Belfort, or Erick Silva, and have been constantly frustrated with me picking against those fighters… good news. They will all move up in FPR. If you’re a fan of Chael Sonnen or Dominick “The Decisionator” Cruz (Urijah Faber’s nickname, not mine), it’s not so good news. They will move down in FPR.
-The percentage estimates for each fight will be more conservative moving forward. It’s reckless and incorrect to have so many fighters listed as 85% or better favorites to win. FPR calling Chael Sonnen an 89% favorite to beat Rashad Evans is ultimately a good thing… because it highlighted some critical flaws in my model. Another great example: Dong Hyun Kim as an 88% favorite to beat Erick Silva. Those estimates won’t be happening anymore, unless it really is a lopsided fight on paper.
-I am reducing the impact of knockdowns and submission attempts, to balance against the addition of finishes.
These changes will not make FPR perfect, but they WILL make FPR an improved statistic. Since FPR was already good enough to place me in the top 25 on Sherdog it’s exciting news to say the least.