*I am overriding my numbers and picking Moraga over Ortiz and Pichel over Whiteley based on tape study.
**FPR estimated based on the betting markets.
Year to date: 7-3 (70.0%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$0.50
Current Bankroll: $50.30
Last time I made just one minimum bet on Tatsuya Kawajiri -165 and got worried fast when the line dropped all the way to even money. Fortunately Kawajiri came through to put me back on the plus side of the ledger overall.
Luke Rockhold (-390) vs. Costa Philippou (+320): PASS
I was hoping Rockhold would be under -300 but it appears the betting public shares my enthusiasm for his abilities. This is an accurate line in my humble opinion.
Lorenz Larkin (-220) vs. Brad Tavares (+180): Bet on Tavares ($0.50 to win $0.90)
I don’t see a ton of value in this line as I think Larkin deserves to be the favorite, but I also think it’s close enough to justify a minimum bet on Tavares.
T.J. Dillashaw (-280) vs. Mike Easton (+230): PASS
I’d love to bet on Dillashaw here but -280 is just too expensive for me to justify it. At the same time it’s reassuring to see fighters high in FPR being heavily favored by the sportsbooks.
Yoel Romero (-230) vs. Derek Brunson (+190): Bet on Brunson ($1.00 to win $1.90)
It appears I’ve done exactly what I shouldn’t do – bet on a fighter at the worst price he’s been listed so far. Brunson has been as high as +250 but even at +190 I think he’s a great value.
John Moraga (-290) vs. Dustin Ortiz (+240): PASS
I’m very tempted to make a minimum bet on Ortiz here – but after watching him on tape I was thoroughly unimpressed by his tendency to give up bad positions on the ground. The prudent move is to pass.
Cole Miller (-170) vs. Sam Sicilia (+150): PASS
I do think there’s upset potential here… and the betting public seems to agree as the line on Miller has dropped to -130. Sicilia is just too flawed for me to trust.
Ramsey Nijem (-150) vs. Justin Edwards (+130): PASS
This fight will likely go one of two ways: either Nijem will get finished early or he’ll look great. I can’t bet on him at -150 with his history of being knocked out.
Elias Silverio (-130) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (+110): PASS
Since I made my bets Vallie-Flagg has climbed all the way to +160… as tempting as it is I just don’t know enough about Silverio to feel comfortable putting money down on this one.
Alp Ozkilic (-270) vs. Louis Smolka (+230): PASS
-270 seems like a very steep line for a fighter with a 1-0 UFC record but at the same time I was unimpressed by Smolka on tape. Total pass for me.
Trevor Smith (-145) vs. Brian Houston (+125): PASS
My gut says that Smith is going to have a lot of trouble controlling Houston… but I can’t justify putting money on Houston with his utter lack of experience.
Vinc Pichel (-155) vs. Garett Whiteley (+135): PASS
This is pretty much exactly where I think the line should be.
Charlie Brenneman (-160) vs. Beneil Dariush (+140): Bet on Brenneman ($0.80 to win $0.50)
This is the opposite of the Brunson bet because I got Brenneman at his cheapest point. I have no data on Dariush but what I know is he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter who has beaten exclusively opponents with poor records (his best opponent is 3-2). I believe Dariush will have a very difficult time dealing with Brenneman’s top control game.
As always I’m doing this for fun and I don’t recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk. Best of luck and enjoy the fights!