Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Fox 10 Prediction: Yves Jabouin vs. Eddie Wineland

Yves Jabouin is a 5’6″ bantamweight with an overall record of 19-8, 4-2 in the UFC. His opponent is Eddie Wineland, a 5’7″ bantamweight with an overall record of 20-9-1, 2-3 in the UFC. Jabouin defeated Dustin Pague by split decision in his last fight while Wineland lost by second-round TKO to Renan Barao in an interim bantamweight title match.

Yves Jabouin

Jabouin’s style is to stand and kickbox against his opponents. In nine UFC and WEC fights Jabouin has landed ten takedowns, which shows he’s willing to mix in a takedown here and there, but takedowns and grappling is not the foundation of his offense. Collectively, Jabouin has landed more significant strikes than his opponents by a 309-277 margin. However, Jabouin has only landed two knockdowns total and has yet to finish an opponent since making his WEC debut. In that time he’s been knocked out by Brad Pickett and Mark Hominick.

It’s also important to note that Jabouin has faced a fairly low level of competition throughout his time in the UFC and WEC. Jabouin has won four of his last five fights, but the fighters he defeated were Pague, Jeff Hougland, Walel Watson, and Ian Loveland. Those fighters have a combined record of 4-12 in the UFC. To make matters worse, the wins over Pague, Watson, and Loveland were all by split decision. That means Jabouin has just barely been good enough to defeat fighters who have since been cut from the promotion.

To Jabouin’s credit he has proven tough to take down. Despite being a striker Jabouin has only been taken down five times, defending takedowns at a 77 percent rate. However, Jabouin has also had his guard passed 13 times and had 12 submissions attempted against him. While he’s escaped 11 of those 12 submission attempts it’s clear that Jabouin has a difficult time defending himself from his opponent’s techniques on the ground. Again, these numbers need to be filtered through the fact that Jabouin has faced a low level of competition by UFC standards.

Eddie Wineland

One thing is certain about Wineland: he’s faced much tougher competition than Jabouin has. Wineland is just 2-3 in the UFC but his losses were all to very highly ranked opponents in Renan Barao, Urijah Faber, and Joseph Benavidez. Wineland’s wins were against Scott Jorgensen and Brad Pickett, two solid mid-level bantamweights Wineland clearly out-performed.

Wineland is also a fighter who likes to stand and strike; again, it’s very important to place the following numbers in the context of Wineland’s very tough competition. Wineland has landed 408 significant strikes and absorbed 421 but despite his negative strike differential he’s landed six knockdowns to just one for his opponents. Wineland has won four fights by knockout in the WEC and UFC.

Wineland has also proven very difficult to grapple throughout his career. He’s only been taken down eight times in 11 WEC/UFC fights, defending takedowns at a 73 percent rate despite facing a series of tough wrestlers like Faber, Benavidez, and Jorgensen. Those takedowns have led to just five guard passes and one submission attempted against Wineland. While Wineland almost never looks to grapple his opponents (just four takedowns and two submissions attempted in his career) he’s proven that he’s very tough on the ground defensively.

Yves Jabouin vs. Eddie Wineland

Jabouin-Wineland

 

With Jabouin struggling to win fights against opponents like Dustin Pague and Walel Watson, it’s difficult to see him winning against an opponent as tough as Wineland. Wineland has shown very good knockout power by bantamweight standards while Jabouin has been knocked out three times in his career. I expect Wineland to take the fight to Jabouin early and prove to be the more effective and powerful striker.

Pick: Eddie Wineland by KO

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

While I feel very strongly that Wineland will win this fight, the current betting lines are -310 for Wineland and +255 for Jabouin. -310 is a very steep price to pay for a fighter I believe is a good but not great UFC bantamweight. It’s difficult for Wineland’s chances of winning to be much higher than that. At the same time I have zero interest in betting on Jabouin as I strongly believe he will lose this fight. I’m going to pass on this one.

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