Here’s what FPR thinks of the fights:
*I am going against FPR on these fights. I’m picking Camus over Meza, Pettis over Caceres, and Miocic over Gonzaga. In all three cases, the strong opinion of the betting public overrides the weak opinion of FPR.
**This is my best-guess FPR for debuting fighters.
Last Event: 7-5 (58.3%)
Year To Date: 14-8 (63.6%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: -$0.90
Current Bankroll: $49.40
Total Investment: $64.80
Total Return: -$0.60
Return on Investment: -0.9%
At the last event Brad Tavares +180 was a winner for me while Derek Brunson +190 and Charlie Brenneman -160 were losers. I’ll admit that Brenneman was a bad bet… but I think Brunson was a good one. He surprised 99% of the MMA community by winning the first two rounds against Yoel Romero (I think I was the only person not surprised by this). Then Brunson gassed out horribly and Romero finished him with strikes in round 3. I can’t be too disappointed with making that selection.
For this event I have:
Donald Cerrone -200: $3.00 to win $1.50
Darren Elkins +105: $2.50 to win $2.63
Benson Henderson by decision -114: $1.14 to win $1.00
Alex Caceres +165: $1.00 to win $1.65
Nikita Krylov +310: $0.58 to win $1.80
I know I said I wasn’t going to bet on Krylov but I couldn’t help myself. I just can’t imagine how Walt Harris is a -410 favorite to beat anybody in the UFC. I kept the bet small because I don’t trust Krylov at all.
I’ve also placed a bet on Billy Daniels +1500: $0.50 to win $7.50 to beat Pedro Munhoz at tonight’s RFA event. For some reason Munhoz has gone from -280 to -4500. I don’t know anything about either fighter, but I placed a flier on Daniels just because of how ridiculous the line is.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!