Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Jaragua Prediction: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

The first thing I do when a fighter is set to make his UFC debut is head over to the Sherdog Fight Finder and look at his professional record. Needless to say, Douglas Silva de Andrade stands out with an overall record of 22-0. 18 of his 22 wins are by KO/TKO, with one by submission and just three by decision. Not bad!

The second thing I do is look at what opponents this fighter has defeated. Usually, when a fighter has a perfect record, it’s because the vast majority of his fights were against poor/unknown competition. Andrade is no exception to this rule. His 22 opponents have a combined record of 91-100-4. At the time he fought them, Andrade’s first 13 opponents had the following records…

Opponent Record
Deivison Francisco Ribeiro 1-0
Jorge Rodrigues 0-1
Maykson Souza Lima 0-0
Junior Teixeira 0-0
Denis Pitbull 0-1
Denis Pitbull 0-2
Antonio Fernandes 0-1
Joao Ferreira Jr. 1-0
Daniel Serafim da Silva Jr. 2-2
Marcelo Rodrigues 0-0
Antonio Marcos 0-0
Anderson Macaco 0-0
Cleison Cardoso 1-10

Andrade would later add wins over 6-1 Felipe Froes and 6-2 Fabiano Nogueira; wins that likely were enough to convince the UFC to give Andrade a shot. The point is that Andrade’s fight record doesn’t tell us anything about how prepared he is to take on competition worthy of the UFC.

At the same time, even if Andrade faces almost exclusively low-level competition, he can’t do any better than to win every fight and most of them by knockout. I believed Khabib Nurmagomedov would not succeed in the UFC because he also had an undefeated record consisting of many low-level opponents. Nurmagomedov taught me a lesson: that while beating poor competition doesn’t prove a fighter is ready for the UFC, beating poor competition also doesn’t prove a fighter is NOT ready for the UFC.

Douglas Silva de Andrade (19-0) vs. Luiz Antonio Lobo Gavinho (2-2)

This fight shows a couple things about Andrade. One is that he obviously hits very hard. He has quick and powerful punches and kicks and is a big threat to win by knockout, which is a great advantage for a featherweight to have. The other is that Andrade is not a good defensive striker at all. His head stays very rigid, which leads to his opponent (Gavinho) landing a lot of clean strikes himself, even staggering Andrade a couple times. This is not the kind of performance I want to see against a 2-2 opponent, even though Andrade ends up winning by TKO.

It also shows us nothing about Andrade’s takedown defense or ground game in general. He did attempt a guillotine choke but Gavinho quickly slipped out of the hold. My best guess is that Andrade’s ground game is weak by UFC standards since he only has one career win by submission – but that’s just an educated guess at best.

Andrade’s opponent is Zubaira Tukhugov, a Russian fighter with a 15-3 overall record. Like Andrade, Tukhugov doesn’t have a very impressive list of wins to boast about. His best win came in his most recent fight, a knockout win by spinning back kick against Vaso Bakocevic, who is currently 13-5-1. Tukhugov also has a win against 6-3 Kuat Khamitov… by split decision. After that, there just aren’t any impressive wins on his record, and he has three losses to go along with it.

Zubaira Tukhugov (13-3) vs. Denys Pidnebesnyi (3-0)

Tukhugov clearly doesn’t have the same kind of punching power as Andrade, even though he dropped his opponent in this fight. What he does seem to have is good distance control and a diversity of strikes in his arsenal. Tukhugov does a good job of throwing varied strikes to varied targets.

However, in this fight Tukhugov became visibly fatigued just three minutes into the first round as a result of his very high pace. Suddenly his distance control and ability to slip strikes left him and he was tagged with some hard combinations.

Unlike Andrade, Tukhugov does show us some grappling in this fight with an easy takedown and some ground and pound from the guard. However, he never really attempted a guard pass or any method of improving his position. Since Tukhugov only has one career win by submission, I think it’s safe to say that he won’t be much of a threat to win by that method in the UFC.

Fights like this are tricky to break down for a number of reasons. I have no hard data on either fighter beyond their records, there isn’t much footage available of them facing tough opponents, and neither man has faced competition worthy of the UFC.

This will probably be primarily a striking match, and I suspect that if Tukhugov wants to try a surprise takedown, he’ll find it difficult against the short Andrade. I think Andrade definitely has better finishing ability and should be considered the favorite in a pure striking match. Tukhugov is very active with strikes but he can’t match Andrade’s power and his conditioning is a huge concern as well.

This is the only fight there are no betting lines available for on this card right now. With my relative lack of information, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tukhugov ended up being the rightful favorite. However, with the information I have, my best guess is that Andrade is going to keep this fight standing and knock Tukhugov out.

Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade by TKO

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

I’m staying far away from this one. I simply don’t have enough information at hand to be very confident in my prediction. From what I’ve seen, I have to be brutally honest and say I don’t see either Andrade or Tukhugov carving out a very successful UFC career. If I have to guess I’ll say Andrade will be about a -200 favorite, but that could easily end up being an embarrassing projection.

EDIT: Tukhugov has opened as the very slight favorite at -130, with Andrade the underdog at -110. I’m still picking Andrade as I believe he should be the more powerful and damaging striker, but again, I can’t be very confident in this one.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: