Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Jaragua Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara vs. Albert Tumenov

This UFC Fight Night event offers a stark contrast to UFC 169 where debuting fighters are concerned. UFC 169 featured a number of debuting fighters with very impressive records. Kevin Lee, Tony Martin, Rashid Magomedov, and Andy Enz all had a handful of quality victories to boast about on their records. So far, I can’t say I’m as impressed with the records of the fighters set to debut at this upcoming event.

In my last post, I previewed Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Zubaira Tukhugov and concluded that neither fighter had a very impressive record going in. In this fight, Albert Tumenov unfortunately continues this trend. It’s true that Tumenov is entering with an overall record of 12-1, but only three of his wins are against opponents with any noteworthy experience.

With that said, Tumenov looks much better on tape than his record would indicate. He’s a measured and patient striker with serious KO power in his hands. While Tumenov is prone to throw out single strikes and slow down the pace a little too much, he makes up for a lack of quantity with quality. Tumenov has eight wins by KO/TKO and six wins in a row by that method.

This fight against Roman Mironenko demonstrates the kind of power Tumenov possesses in his hands. The fight begins at the 7:03 mark:

Albert Tumenov (11-1) vs. Roman Mironenko (5-3)

I’m also impressed by Tumenov’s ability to maintain a dominant position while Mironenko scrambles, trying to get back to his feet. Tumenov shows some fairly impressive grappling here.

With that said, I’m curious to see how Tumenov’s skills hold up against stronger opposition. Many fighters look great against obscure opponents on the regional circuit, but that only says so much about the fighter’s ability to compete in the UFC. Overall, I believe Tumenov is a decent prospect, but it’s hard for me to look past his relatively flimsy record.

 

In this fight, Tumenov will take on Ildemar Alcantara, a fighter famous for defeating Wagner Prado on short notice at light-heavyweight and promptly dropping two weight classes afterwards. Alcantara is definitely a grappler first, as he’s landed eight takedowns in three UFC fights, including two takedowns against the bigger Prado. Alcantara also attempted six submissions in those fights, one of which was the kneebar that forced Prado to tap out.

Unfortunately, Alcantara can’t be considered very much of a striker, at least not by UFC standards. He’s landed just 75 significant strikes total in those three fights, for a low rate of 1.99 strikes landed per minute. His opponents have landed 98 strikes in that time. Keep in mind that Alcantara has battled below-average UFC competition by facing Prado, Leandro Silva, and Igor Araujo. If Alcantara gets out-struck by that level of competition, what would happen if he was forced to take a step up in competition?

I believe Tumenov will have the striking advantage in this fight, but I still have questions about how Tumenov would fare against the takedowns and grappling of Alcantara. Based on what I do know, I will favor Tumenov to win this fight, but it would not surprise me if Alcantara was able to take him down, control him, and potentially win by submission.

Pick: Albert Tumenov by TKO

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Right now, Tumenov is the favorite at -160 with Alcantara the underdog at +140. I understand why Tumenov is the favorite; he looks good on tape and should be the superior striker. I just don’t have nearly enough information about Tumenov to put a bet on him. I don’t know how well Tumenov will defend takedowns and his relatively weak record is a red flag as well for me. I have zero interest on betting on this one unless the line gets crazy.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: