Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Jaragua Prediction: Rodrigo Damm vs. Ivan Jorge

It’s hard to see where Rodrigo Damm has the talent to compete in the UFC featherweight division. Most fighters have at least one dimension they’re remarkably good at. Take Justin Salas as an example. Salas is a low-level UFC lightweight by all accounts, a fighter who struggles in striking matches and hasn’t shown much submission offense. What Salas has going for him is very good wrestling, as he’s landed eight takedowns without being taken down himself even once.

When I look at Damm’s statistical profile, what stands out is that nothing stands out. Damm has absorbed a very high 4.50 significant strikes per minute, including 102 significant strikes absorbed in his split decision victory over Mizuto Hirota. He has only landed two takedowns in eight attempts to go along with one guard pass and one submission attempt. Damm’s tendency is clearly to stand and strike, but with 147 significant strikes landed, 199 absorbed, and no knockdowns, it’s hard to see why Damm doesn’t pursue takedowns more often.

The only data I have on Ivan Jorge stems from his UFC debut, a unanimous decision victory over Keith Wisniewski at UFC Fight Night 28 last September. In that fight, through two rounds, Wisniewski was up 29-24 in significant strikes and 52-28 in total strikes while Jorge had landed two takedowns in the second round. Given that Wisniewski was one of the lowest-rated UFC welterweights in FPR, it’s not a good sign that Jorge struggled so much against him in the first ten minutes.

In fairness to Jorge, his 13 career wins by submission (in a 25-3 overall record) indicate that his strength is in takedowns and grappling, and Wisniewski’s takedown defense is the best aspect of his game. Jorge also took that fight on short notice, and when the fight advanced to the third round, Jorge out-struck Wisniewski 45-13, landing a lot of hard knees to the body. In this fight against Damm, Jorge will be fighting two weight classes lighter and is likely to perform better.

EDIT: This fight is at lightweight, not featherweight as I originally believed.

In a perfect world I’d have a lot more data on both fighters here. I want to know more about Damm’s takedown defense and grappling, and I want to know more about Jorge overall. From what I do know, I believe Jorge can at least be competitive standing and is likely to have the overall advantage on the ground as well. That’s enough for me to favor Jorge to win in what looks like a tough fight for both guys.

Pick: Ivan Jorge by decision

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Jorge is the favorite at -130 with Damm the underdog at +110. My numbers suggest Jorge is a 61% favorite, which puts him at closer to -150 but that’s with a large margin of error. I can’t justify a bet here.

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4 responses to “UFC Fight Night Jaragua Prediction: Rodrigo Damm vs. Ivan Jorge

  1. Thomas Algiz February 13, 2014 at 5:29 pm

    Im going against you on this one.

    I have seen Ivan Jorge’s last 4 fights and they are all the same pattern. Im not saying it is impossible for Ivan to win but he really got to come up with something new from what i have seen. His striking is dangerous to no one else but himself. For a fighter who relies soly on his grappling then i had expected a more speedy and explosive man.

    Rodrigo Damm on the other hand i see as not a top striker but he definitely has some striking that is better and more explosive than Ivan. i rarely go against a grappler when he is facing a striker but here is the reason im doing it on this one.

    1. Due to Ivan’s lack of explosiveness then i do not believe he will be able to get this fight to the ground.

    2. Even if Ivan gets this fight to the ground then Rodrigo Damm is 3rd degree black belt brazillian jiu-jitsu. He is also a 7 time national champion in both wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitzu and a world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitzu aswell. Even if the fight got to the ground then with that background Rodrigo Damm should be okay.

    3. If Ivan can’t get the fight to the ground then im confident that Rodrigo will win by decision or TKO/KO

    4. The only way i can image Ivan Jorge winning this fight is if he manage to get the fight to ground and happens to be able to dominantly grind Rodrigo Damm through the entire fight. but i rather doubt since he had troubles bringing a poor fighter as Wisniewski to the ground.

    or

    If Ivan Jorge comes up with a complete change of strategy which i couldn’t what should be and based on how identical his last 4 fights has been then i strongly doubt there will be any change in the fifth fight.

    Perhaps im underestimating Ivan Jorge and only time will tell. This is my point of view and sorry for disagreeing with you David.

  2. Thomas Algiz February 15, 2014 at 7:14 pm

    Damn! I know Rodrigo Damm won but i was really worried he wouldn’t make it while i was watching the fight. Ivan Jorge really surprised me in this fight and he really deserves some credit for what he put up against Damm. Since his last fight in september he has actually gained some speed and striking abilities. Not to mention he almost tapped Damm. Really exiciting fight to watch aswell!

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