Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Jaragua Prediction: Andy Ogle vs. Charles Oliveira

People online talk about Andy Ogle as if he is one of the worst fighters in the UFC. They talk about this fight as if Ogle has zero chance of beating Charles Oliveira. Poor Andy Ogle… he tries hard but now the UFC is feeding him to the lions…

I’ll acknowledge that this probably isn’t Sean Shelby’s finest moment as a UFC matchmaker, but Ogle is not the hopeless cause people have portrayed him to be. Believe it or not, in Ogle’s three UFC appearances, he’s landed more significant strikes than his opponent all three times: 52-45 against Akira Corassani, 19-7 against Josh Grispi, and 27-21 against Cole Miller.

Meanwhile, Oliveira has a total significant strike count of 176 to 177 in his UFC career. Yes, that includes fights against opponents like Frankie Edgar and Donald Cerrone, and those guys are light years ahead of Ogle in terms of sheer talent, but let’s not portray Oliveira as some kind of world-beater. Oliveira has also been stopped in bizarre fashion twice. Against both Cerrone and Cub Swanson, Oliveira just suddenly collapsed after being hit. I don’t want to accuse a fighter of quitting, but I would at least question Oliveira’s mental toughness after those losses.

The point is that I just plain disagree with the idea that Oliveira should be a -1000 favorite or better in this fight. If it was a fighter like Dustin Poirier, then sure, make him a -1000 or better favorite. I just have too many questions about Oliveira to feel like he deserves that status.

Now, don’t worry, I’m far from ready to actually pick Ogle to win this fight. Oliveira is the far more talented athlete, with faster hands and kicks and a dynamic submission offense that makes him a threat to finish from almost any position on the ground. If this fight hits the ground at all, Ogle will be in huge trouble and is likely to get caught in a submission quickly, especially because Ogle is more of a survivor on the ground than a fighter who controls position.

If Ogle is to win this fight, the most likely path to victory is to land a series of strikes that hurt Oliveira and put him away. Otherwise, this fight should probably be all Oliveira. Oliveira is a very fluid athlete with a wide arsenal of offensive techniques, and it will be very difficult for Ogle to slow Oliveira down in the clinch or anywhere else.

Yes, Oliveira deserves to be the overwhelming favorite, but I think Ogle has more hope than people are willing to give him credit for.

Pick: Charles Oliveira by submission


My numbers say 70% Oliveira, 30% Ogle, but the margin of error stretches to 85% Oliveira, 15% Ogle. I suspect the true odds are probably closer to that 85-15 split as Oliveira should have Ogle beat everywhere. I would want a +600 price or better to put a flier on Ogle, but the best price for him available so far has been +500. Right now, it’s Oliveira at -650 with Ogle at +475, and that line isn’t far off from how I feel about this fight.


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