Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Jaragua Predictions Summary

Here is what FPR thinks:

ufn jaragua predictions

*I am going against FPR on Andrade-Musoke due to additional research and tape study.

**These estimates are best guesses based on research independent of FPR.

I think FPR underestimates a couple guys here. I think Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza is an overwhelming favorite to beat Francis Carmont, and I think the same of Charles Oliveira over Andy Ogle. I don’t think Carmont and Ogle should be completely counted out, but I’m not nearly willing to give either guy a 30 percent chance.


Last Event: -$1.72

Current Bankroll: $50.58

Total Investment: $82.54

Total Return: $0.58

Return on Investment: 0.7%

That’s right, a 0.7% return on investment! Amazing!

Last time, I made a number of bets but most of them didn’t work out. I had Alistair Overeem and Jose Aldo each winning by knockout, and they each won by decision. I thought Kevin Lee and Tony Martin were risks worth taking, and they were both so close to winning… but lost. I thought Jamie Varner was a good value at -135, and he proceeded to beat the stuffing out of Abel Trujillo. And then was knocked out.

The one fighter I bet on who actually won was Nick Catone, and even he made it awful close. Fortunately, my Super Bowl bet on the Seahawks came through big, so I ended up with my bankroll back over $50.00. If you want to break even by betting on stuff, I guess I’m the guy you want to follow.

For this event I have:

Nicholas Musoke +110 ($1.00 to win $1.10)

I think Musoke has much better long-term upside than his opponent, Viscardi Andrade. From what I’ve seen, Musoke has clearly better striking and his overall grappling isn’t bad either. I think he should be the favorite to beat Andrade, so I’m willing to put a whole dollar where my mouth is.

Gegard Mousasi +195 ($1.00 to win $1.95)

I favor Lyoto Machida to beat Mousasi in the main event, but Mousasi should be recognized as a real threat to win a striking match here. I like the price enough to put a bet on it.


And that’s it! Just two bets this time. Here’s hoping they don’t both lose.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


2 responses to “UFC Fight Night Jaragua Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton February 15, 2014 at 7:15 am

    Yeah…..I like your bets.

    I am rooting for Mousasi, I hope he KO’s Machida.

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