Here is what FPR thinks:
*I am going against FPR on Andrade-Musoke due to additional research and tape study.
**These estimates are best guesses based on research independent of FPR.
I think FPR underestimates a couple guys here. I think Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza is an overwhelming favorite to beat Francis Carmont, and I think the same of Charles Oliveira over Andy Ogle. I don’t think Carmont and Ogle should be completely counted out, but I’m not nearly willing to give either guy a 30 percent chance.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: -$1.72
Current Bankroll: $50.58
Total Investment: $82.54
Total Return: $0.58
Return on Investment: 0.7%
That’s right, a 0.7% return on investment! Amazing!
Last time, I made a number of bets but most of them didn’t work out. I had Alistair Overeem and Jose Aldo each winning by knockout, and they each won by decision. I thought Kevin Lee and Tony Martin were risks worth taking, and they were both so close to winning… but lost. I thought Jamie Varner was a good value at -135, and he proceeded to beat the stuffing out of Abel Trujillo. And then was knocked out.
The one fighter I bet on who actually won was Nick Catone, and even he made it awful close. Fortunately, my Super Bowl bet on the Seahawks came through big, so I ended up with my bankroll back over $50.00. If you want to break even by betting on stuff, I guess I’m the guy you want to follow.
For this event I have:
Nicholas Musoke +110 ($1.00 to win $1.10)
I think Musoke has much better long-term upside than his opponent, Viscardi Andrade. From what I’ve seen, Musoke has clearly better striking and his overall grappling isn’t bad either. I think he should be the favorite to beat Andrade, so I’m willing to put a whole dollar where my mouth is.
Gegard Mousasi +195 ($1.00 to win $1.95)
I favor Lyoto Machida to beat Mousasi in the main event, but Mousasi should be recognized as a real threat to win a striking match here. I like the price enough to put a bet on it.
And that’s it! Just two bets this time. Here’s hoping they don’t both lose.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!