Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 170 Predictions Summary

Here are my picks for tomorrow’s fights, in order from my most confident pick to my least confident:

ufc 170 predictions


This is my attempt to convey how strongly I feel about each particular fight. I’ll be absolutely shocked if either Daniel Cormier or Ronda Rousey loses, while it won’t surprise me at all if T.J. Waldburger or Josh Sampo score an upset.

I’m also picking all chalk, which is a rarity for me. Usually I end up picking at least one underdog but that’s not the case this time. Don’t worry, I’m sure I’ll be back to making ill-advised upset picks very soon.

Last Event Picks: 9-3 (75%)

Year to Date: 38-19 (67%)


So apparently I never actually placed a bet on Gegard Mousasi. Last time, I said I placed bets on Mousasi ($1.00 to win $1.95) and Nicholas Musoke ($1.00 to win $1.10). Mousasi lost to Lyoto Machida by unanimous decision while Musoke defeated Viscardi Andrade, also by unanimous decision, so I should have made a profit of a whole ten cents. That would have put my bankroll at $50.68 but instead my bankroll was listed as $51.68. I’m going to go with the bankroll I actually have to avoid confusing myself; if you want to know where I should be based on the bets I’ve publicized on this blog, then just subtract a dollar from whatever I have.

Last Event: +$1.10*

Current Bankroll: $51.68*

Total Investment: $83.54*

Total Return: $1.68*

Return on Investment: 2.0%*


Here are the bets I’ve made for this event:

Ronda Rousey -390 ($11.70 to win $3.00)

Stephen Thompson -135 ($2.70 to win $2.00)

Alexis Davis -150 ($1.50 to win $1.00)

Daniel Cormier inside the distance -135 ($1.35 to win $1.00)

Pyle/Waldburger under 1.5 rounds +140 ($0.50 to win $0.70)

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


12 responses to “UFC 170 Predictions Summary

  1. Nick February 21, 2014 at 5:58 pm

    Some of the best breakdowns on the internet… great picks David.

  2. Howard Morton February 22, 2014 at 7:58 am

    I can see McMann winning, but she would have to be perfect for 25 minutes and that is hard to do.

    I think Rory wins by T/KO.

    • David Williams February 22, 2014 at 2:22 pm

      Agree on McMann. She has zero margin for error. Her BJJ simply isn’t good enough to hang with Rousey.

      I think Rory-Maia goes the distance but it’s a real good style matchup for Rory. I could see him winning by TKO if he’s aggressive like he was before.

  3. Rob February 22, 2014 at 11:13 am

    Davis/ Eye seems a pick’em in many bettors’ eyes… what convinced you to get action with only level 3 confidence yourself? Also, where can I get a read on how you determine that confidence rating? Meanwhile, I’m picking the same fighters, just in Kountermove format.

    • David Williams February 22, 2014 at 2:20 pm

      Honestly, I didn’t really put a lot of thought into the confidence rating for each pick. I just wanted a way of listing the picks in order from most confident to least confident. If I had to convert the confidence ratings into betting lines, it might look like this:

      “1” -120
      “2” -150
      “3” -180
      “4” -220
      “5” -260
      “6” -300
      “7” -400
      “8” -600
      “9” -1000
      “10” -1500

      So since Davis was -150 I believed there was a small amount of value on betting her. With that said there are reasons that I recommend people NOT follow my picks.

  4. Rob February 22, 2014 at 11:14 am

    PS How is it that the first three commenters here all have specifically geometric avatars?!

  5. Rob February 23, 2014 at 11:34 am

    Congrats on 100% correct picks! Favorites certainly came through. I bet $4 to win $7 this time around. Alas, the next couple cards have so few known quantities that (a) its harder to bet smart; and (b) less fun to anticipate, which means less actual watching. Meh.

  6. obraz February 25, 2014 at 3:32 pm

    Great fight, nice win by Rory.
    Key moment in 3rd round,, classy.

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