Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Macau Predictions Summary

It’s best if I don’t pretend that I know anything about some of the fighters making their UFC debut on this card. As a result, I’m just going to pick whoever the betting favorite is by default for those fights. It’s a cop out, but at least I’m admitting it’s a cop out.

My picks are:

  • Dong Hyun Kim over John Hathaway
  • Wang Sai over Lipeng Zhang
  • Matt Mitrione over Shawn Jordan
  • Hatsu Hioki over Ivan Menjivar
  • Yui Chul Nam over Kazuki Tokudome
  • Vaughan Lee over Nam Phan
  • Anying Wong over Albert Chang
  • Jumabieke Tuerxun over Mark Eddiva

Last event picks: 10-1 (90.9%)

Year to date: 48-20 (70.6%)

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

UFC 170 was a very good event for me from a degenerate gambling perspective! It’s fortunate that I bet on Ronda Rousey straight up instead of Rousey by submission, because she won a fight by TKO for the first time in her career. Other winning bets were Stephen Thompson, Alexis Davis, and Daniel Cormier inside the distance. The one bet I lost was Mike Pyle/T.J. Waldburger under 1.5 rounds. Overall I made a profit of $6.50 to bring my very inconsequential bankroll to a new high of $58.38.

Last Event: +$6.50

Current Bankroll: $58.38

Total Investment: $101.29

Total Return: $8.38

Return on Investment: +8.3%

For this event I have:

John Hathaway +290 ($0.50 to win $1.45)

Matt Mitrione +105 ($1.00 to win $1.05)

I do believe Hathaway will lose to Dong Hyun Kim, but I think the fight is more competitive than the betting markets would indicate. Hathaway should be the more effective striker; if he can get Kim fatigued then there’s a definite possibility Hathaway wins by decision, or even TKO.

It’s hard to be too confident in Mitrione but he profiles as the better striker than Shawn Jordan. Mitrione has the better significant strike differential and lands knockdowns more frequently. Jordan should have the grappling advantage, and has the potential to finish the fight himself, so I can’t favor Mitrione by too much. However, I think Mitrione should be favored, so I’m willing to put a dollar on him.

For those of you crazy enough to watch live (especially on the west coast), enjoy the fights!

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4 responses to “UFC Fight Night Macau Predictions Summary

  1. Nick March 1, 2014 at 4:31 am

    Amazing job picking Lee… Phan had nothing for him.

  2. Nick March 3, 2014 at 9:53 am

    You’re on a roll David…

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