Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 171 Predictions Summary

Here’s the summary of who I like to win tomorrow’s fights:

  • Johny Hendricks over Robbie Lawler
  • Carlos Condit over Tyron Woodley
  • Myles Jury over Diego Sanchez
  • Jake Shields over Hector Lombard
  • Ovince St-Preux over Nikita Krylov
  • Rick Story over Kelvin Gastelum
  • Jessica Andrade over Raquel Pennington
  • Dennis Bermudez over Jimy Hettes
  • Alex Garcia over Sean Spencer
  • Renee Forte over Frank Trevino
  • Justin Scoggins over Will Campuzano
  • Sean Strickland over Bubba McDaniel
  • Daniel Pineda over Rob Whiteford

Underdog picks for this event are Jake Shields and Rick Story. I also see Forte-Trevino as a 50-50 type of fight.

Last Event: 5-4 (55.6%)

Year To Date: 59-26 (69.4%)

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

In last week’s UFC Fight Night: London event, I bet on two fighters. Alexander Gustafsson came through with a TKO victory in the main event over Jimi Manuwa, but Phil Harris was quickly submitted by Louis Gaudinot’s guillotine choke. Fortunately, I won more on Gustafsson than I risked on Harris, so I made a profit of an even dollar.

Last Event: +$1.00

Current Bankroll: $59.73

Total Investment: $111.39

Total Return: $9.73

Return on Investment: +8.7%

For this event I have:

Rick Story +155 ($3.00 to win $4.65)

Jake Shields +180 ($2.00 to win $3.60)

Myles Jury -185 ($1.85 to win $1.00)

Tyron Woodley +155 ($1.00 to win $1.55)

I regard Story and Shields as two of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. I think Story should be favored to beat Kelvin Gastelum, a fighter who has never faced anybody near Story’s level. It’s possible that Gastelum has just improved rapidly from when he was on The Ultimate Fighter, but I don’t think one win over Brian Melancon proves that to be the case. As for Shields, I think he can win a boxing match against Hector Lombard. Lombard is a slugger but not much of a volume striker, while Shields has shown he’s capable of winning by spamming straight punches and scoring points. I think Shields can beat Lombard that way, but I acknowledge it’s a very tough fight for him.

Meanwhile, I picked Carlos Condit to beat Tyron Woodley, but I acknowledge that Woodley’s wrestling should be a big problem for Condit. It’s close enough that I’m willing to place a small bet on Woodley at +155 despite picking Condit.

As for Myles Jury… really, the only justification I have for betting him at -185 over Diego Sanchez is that it’s a better price than the opener of -210. I think Jury wins the fight but I’ll acknowledge that I probably didn’t get good value with this one.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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4 responses to “UFC 171 Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton March 14, 2014 at 8:04 pm

    I bet Story, Trevino and Woodley. I got some parlays too, but those are the straight bets.

  2. Nick March 18, 2014 at 12:30 pm

    Hi David, you doing a quick picks for Sunday? When in Brazil, pick the Brazilian… though it looks like there are some favorable matchups for the Americans.

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