Here’s the summary of who I like to win tomorrow’s fights:
- Johny Hendricks over Robbie Lawler
- Carlos Condit over Tyron Woodley
- Myles Jury over Diego Sanchez
- Jake Shields over Hector Lombard
- Ovince St-Preux over Nikita Krylov
- Rick Story over Kelvin Gastelum
- Jessica Andrade over Raquel Pennington
- Dennis Bermudez over Jimy Hettes
- Alex Garcia over Sean Spencer
- Renee Forte over Frank Trevino
- Justin Scoggins over Will Campuzano
- Sean Strickland over Bubba McDaniel
- Daniel Pineda over Rob Whiteford
Underdog picks for this event are Jake Shields and Rick Story. I also see Forte-Trevino as a 50-50 type of fight.
Last Event: 5-4 (55.6%)
Year To Date: 59-26 (69.4%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
In last week’s UFC Fight Night: London event, I bet on two fighters. Alexander Gustafsson came through with a TKO victory in the main event over Jimi Manuwa, but Phil Harris was quickly submitted by Louis Gaudinot’s guillotine choke. Fortunately, I won more on Gustafsson than I risked on Harris, so I made a profit of an even dollar.
Last Event: +$1.00
Current Bankroll: $59.73
Total Investment: $111.39
Total Return: $9.73
Return on Investment: +8.7%
For this event I have:
Rick Story +155 ($3.00 to win $4.65)
Jake Shields +180 ($2.00 to win $3.60)
Myles Jury -185 ($1.85 to win $1.00)
Tyron Woodley +155 ($1.00 to win $1.55)
I regard Story and Shields as two of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. I think Story should be favored to beat Kelvin Gastelum, a fighter who has never faced anybody near Story’s level. It’s possible that Gastelum has just improved rapidly from when he was on The Ultimate Fighter, but I don’t think one win over Brian Melancon proves that to be the case. As for Shields, I think he can win a boxing match against Hector Lombard. Lombard is a slugger but not much of a volume striker, while Shields has shown he’s capable of winning by spamming straight punches and scoring points. I think Shields can beat Lombard that way, but I acknowledge it’s a very tough fight for him.
Meanwhile, I picked Carlos Condit to beat Tyron Woodley, but I acknowledge that Woodley’s wrestling should be a big problem for Condit. It’s close enough that I’m willing to place a small bet on Woodley at +155 despite picking Condit.
As for Myles Jury… really, the only justification I have for betting him at -185 over Diego Sanchez is that it’s a better price than the opener of -210. I think Jury wins the fight but I’ll acknowledge that I probably didn’t get good value with this one.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!