Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Natal Predictions Summary

Here are my picks for this event:

  • Mauricio “Shogun” Rua over Dan Henderson
  • C.B. Dollaway over Cezar Ferreira
  • Norman Parke over Leonardo Santos
  • Fabio Maldonado over Gian Villante
  • Mairbek Taisumov over Michel Prazeres
  • Rony Jason over Steven Siler
  • Diego Brandao over Will Chope
  • Ronny Markes over Thiago Santos
  • Scott Jorgensen over Jussier Formiga
  • Thiago Perpetuo over Kenny Robertson
  • Noad Lahat over Godofredo Pepey
  • Francimar Barroso over Hans Stringer

Last Event: 8-5 (61.5%)

Year To Date: 67-31 (68.4%)


At UFC 171, my degenerate gambling success hinged on a split decision in a razor close fight between Kelvin Gastelum and Rick Story. I had a bet on Story at +155 but the decision went Gastelum’s way. I also lost on the terribly ineffective Jake Shields while winning bets on Myles Jury and Tyron Woodley. Overall I took a loss of $2.45 to bring my bankroll down to $57.28.

Last Event: -$2.45

Current Bankroll: $57.28

Total Investment: $119.24

Total Return: $7.28

Return on Investment: +6.1%

For this event I have:

Dan Henderson +190 ($1.00 to win $1.90)

C.B. Dollaway +185 ($1.00 to win $1.85)

I like “Shogun” to win the main event against Dan Henderson, but I see it as being another very competitive fight. With all the punishment and abuse Rua has endured in recent fights, I’m not sure why people are so eager to bet on him as a substantial favorite… but maybe they know something I don’t.

As for Dollaway, I picked him to win and bet on him, but it’s going to be a sweat. His chin and conditioning are very hard to trust, but he’s a terrific wrestler and I believe has what it takes to grind out a win against Cezar Ferreira.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


4 responses to “UFC Fight Night Natal Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton March 25, 2014 at 3:38 am

    Nice wins on Henderson and Dolloway.

    • David Williams March 25, 2014 at 4:18 pm

      I appreciate that, although once again I failed to actually make the bet on Dollaway. I only had a bet on Henderson as it turns out. I’m the worst degenerate gambler ever.

  2. Nick March 30, 2014 at 8:42 pm

    Looking forward to your breakdown on Big Nog vs. Big Country

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