Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Degenerate Gambler’s Corner: UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi

For the last UFC event, I said that I made two underdog bets, on Dan Henderson at +190 and C.B. Dollaway at +185. Both fighters won, but as it turns out, I’m a goof and only actually placed the bet on Henderson. This is the second time I’ve done this since starting my degenerate gambling. The first time was what should have been an underdog bet on Gegard Mousasi before his loss to Lyoto Machida. At least now instead of benefiting from my incompetence, I’m hurting because of it… so hopefully I won’t do it again.

I really should have paid more attention, because an avalanche of money bet on Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira pushed the price on Dollaway all the way up to +340. It would have made for a great betting opportunity if I was on top of it.

As it stands, I made $1.90 from my bet on Henderson and now have a bankroll of $59.18.

Last Event: +$1.90

Current Bankroll: $59.18

Total Investment: $120.24

Total Return: $9.18

Return on Investment: 7.6%

For tomorrow’s Abu Dhabi event I have just one bet: a $2.00 risk on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at +130, to win $2.60. That price isn’t available right now; Nogueira is currently somewhere between +100 and +110. I don’t think Nogueira should be the underdog against Roy Nelson. It’s true that Nelson has big power and Nogueira is vulnerable to being knocked out, but I just don’t see Nelson winning if he doesn’t get that knockout early. I think +130 is a good price to get.

I also want to bet on Tatsuya Kawajiri but I want the price to be +130 or better, and right now the best price on the board is +115. If Kawajiri becomes a larger underdog then I might add him as a small play.

I’m also tempted by Jim Alers -255 because I loved what I saw of him on tape, but it’s probably not a good idea to pay that steep a price on a fighter making his UFC debut.

The last bet that has my interest is Trevor Smith at +410. Smith opened at +265 so the line has moved quite a large amount. It seems like there might be some value on Smith now, but when I look at how he matches up with Thales Leites, I feel like he really shouldn’t be able to win. The prudent decision is to just pass… but if Smith reaches something like +500 then I might put a flier on him.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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4 responses to “Degenerate Gambler’s Corner: UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi

  1. Nick April 13, 2014 at 5:38 am

    Sad to see Nog go out like that. Lots more fights to breakdown Wed and Sat =)

  2. boza edwards April 14, 2014 at 9:24 pm

    becoming quite the poirer fan…was hoping the odds would be a little less daunting….so i parred poirer with jimmo before the odds go any higher(i expect him to be a bit too technical at home for o`connell)…also think i`m liking a small play on the “new gsp” over jaw crusher laprise(i believe the broken jaw he inflicted on the journeyman helped keep these odds in a good place)…usually prefer the grappler in these match-ups…

    also small on kennedy at +165…i know it happened long ago,but i still have the memory of matt hamill`s pressure giving bisping all kind of fits…. over 5 i think it`s worth a small flyer…people are talking about kennedy like he`s a walkover…i think it`s very competitive…

    also thought any hype with the aussie grujic was basically fantasy…figure a way to use taleb without laying 2-1…

    g.l.

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