Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Fox 11 Predictions Summary

Here are my picks:

  • Travis Browne over Fabricio Werdum
  • Miesha Tate over Liz Carmouche
  • Donald Cerrone over Edson Barboza
  • Yoel Romero over Brad Tavares
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov over Rafael Dos Anjos
  • Thiago Alves over Seth Baczynski
  • Jorge Masvidal over Pat Healy
  • Estevan Payan over Alex White
  • Caio Magalhaes over Luke Zachrich
  • Jordan Mein over Hernani Perpetuo
  • Dustin Ortiz over Ray Borg
  • Chas Skelly over Mirsad Bektic
  • Derrick Lewis over Jack May

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 10-3 (76.9%)

Year to Date: 84-44 (65.6%)

My one underdog pick was a winner as Chad Laprise showcased polished striking skills against the inexperienced Olivier Aubin-Mercier. However, I did also pick Sam Stout to defeat K.J. Noons; Stout lost by knockout in 30 seconds and subsequently tried to choke the referee in his stupor. Stout and Noons were each at -105 so I was on the wrong side of that coin.

My underdog pick for this event is Yoel Romero, who I’m surprised is the underdog against Brad Tavares. I thought that the hype Romero had behind him would cause him to be favored against Tavares, but perhaps Tavares is the more recognized name. Both fighters are capable strikers but Romero packs a lot more power and I think that’s going to give Tavares some real trouble. I also don’t think Tavares has good enough ground control to defeat Romero with takedowns and grappling. It’s a competitive fight but I think Romero wins.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: -$1.72

Current Bankroll: $55.51

Total Investment: $128.57

Total Return: $5.51

Return on Investment: 4.3%

My picks might have done well but my degenerate gambling did not. Three of my four bets were winners: Chad Laprise, Elias Theodorou, and George Roop all proved to be sound investments. However, my biggest bet by far was on Kyle Noke, who I felt could keep up with Patrick Cote standing and easily out-maneuver him on the ground. Noke held up his end of the bargain on the feet but it was Cote who landed takedowns and controlled Noke on the ground. Cote has almost never landed takedowns in the past so I certainly didn’t see him doing that here. No points to Noke for having a game plan involving A) zero takedown attempts despite Cote’s history of being submitted, B) opting to attempt submissions from the guard instead of getting to his feet, and C) not having a sense of urgency in the third round.

As frustrated as I was with Noke, it was a bad bet and I have to admit that.

For this event I have:

Yoel Romero +125: $2.00 to win $2.50

Rafael Dos Anjos +195: $2.00 to win $3.80 as I believe his fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov is very competitive.

EDIT: I have added plays on Donald Cerrone +120 ($1.00 to win $1.20) and Pat Healy +200 ($1.00 to win $2.00) as I feel the line has moved enough on both fights for there to be value.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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3 responses to “UFC on Fox 11 Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton April 18, 2014 at 3:44 pm

    I got Barboza over Cerronne by Round 1 KO.
    I got Tavares over Romero by decision

  2. Howard Morton April 20, 2014 at 3:39 am

    Well those 2 picks bit the dust, but I did pick Wedum by decision at my mma picker site Tapology.com

    • David Williams April 20, 2014 at 3:44 pm

      It happens. Barboza was doing really well before he was dropped by a jab of all things. And trust me when I say I hate picking against Barboza. Werdum was a really nice call.

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