Here are my picks for this one:
- Renan Barao over T.J. Dillashaw
- Daniel Cormier over Dan Henderson
- Jake Ellenberger over Robbie Lawler
- Takeya Mizugaki over Francisco Rivera
- Jamie Varner over James Krause
- Michael Chiesa over Francisco Trinaldo
- Tony Ferguson over Katsunori Kikuno
- Chris Holdsworth over Chico Camus
- Al Iaquinta over Mitch Clarke
- Anthony Njokuani over Vinc Pichel
- Sam Sicilia over Aaron Phillips
- David Michaud over Li Jingliang
PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 7-6 (53.8%)
Year to Date: 107-57 (65.2%)
A 7-6 performance with picks might not sound great, but betting favorites were just 5-8 at UFC Fight Night Cincinnati, so I think I deserve a pass.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$18.80 (-$3.00 for a bet on King Mo at Bellator 120)
Current Bankroll: $72.21
Total Investment: $155.07
Total Return: $22.21
Return on Investment: 14.3%
I should consider myself very lucky if I ever have a betting performance as good as last time. I put money down on six underdogs and five of them came through with victories, giving me a profit of $18.80. On the one hand, I want to do a victory lap, and on the other hand… it was just two dollars per bet after all. I did also wager three dollars on King Mo to beat Rampage Jackson at Bellator 120, and although I didn’t watch the fight, the reaction of those who did watch strongly suggested I should have made money there as well. But that’s how it goes sometimes.
For this event I have:
T.J. Dillashaw +575: $2.00 to win $11.50 – This is a situation where I fully expect to lose this bet but I think Dillashaw wins often enough to make this steep line a worthwhile investment.
Jake Ellenberger +190: $2.00 to win $3.80 – I think Ellenberger beats Robbie Lawler if his takedowns are working, but I can’t be as confident in that as I would have been a year ago.
Katsunori Kikuno +250: $2.00 to win $5.00 – I’m very curious to see how a striking match between Kikuno and Tony Ferguson plays out. I expect Ferguson’s pressure to be a little too much for Kikuno, but I think it’s competitive enough for a bet on Kikuno to be worthwhile at this price.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!