Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 173 Predictions Summary

Here are my picks for this one:

  • Renan Barao over T.J. Dillashaw
  • Daniel Cormier over Dan Henderson
  • Jake Ellenberger over Robbie Lawler
  • Takeya Mizugaki over Francisco Rivera
  • Jamie Varner over James Krause
  • Michael Chiesa over Francisco Trinaldo
  • Tony Ferguson over Katsunori Kikuno
  • Chris Holdsworth over Chico Camus
  • Al Iaquinta over Mitch Clarke
  • Anthony Njokuani over Vinc Pichel
  • Sam Sicilia over Aaron Phillips
  • David Michaud over Li Jingliang


Last Event: 7-6 (53.8%)

Year to Date: 107-57 (65.2%)

A 7-6 performance with picks might not sound great, but betting favorites were just 5-8 at UFC Fight Night Cincinnati, so I think I deserve a pass.



Last Event: +$18.80 (-$3.00 for a bet on King Mo at Bellator 120)

Current Bankroll: $72.21

Total Investment: $155.07

Total Return: $22.21

Return on Investment: 14.3%

I should consider myself very lucky if I ever have a betting performance as good as last time. I put money down on six underdogs and five of them came through with victories, giving me a profit of $18.80. On the one hand, I want to do a victory lap, and on the other hand… it was just two dollars per bet after all. I did also wager three dollars on King Mo to beat Rampage Jackson at Bellator 120, and although I didn’t watch the fight, the reaction of those who did watch strongly suggested I should have made money there as well. But that’s how it goes sometimes.

For this event I have:

T.J. Dillashaw +575: $2.00 to win $11.50 – This is a situation where I fully expect to lose this bet but I think Dillashaw wins often enough to make this steep line a worthwhile investment.

Jake Ellenberger +190: $2.00 to win $3.80 – I think Ellenberger beats Robbie Lawler if his takedowns are working, but I can’t be as confident in that as I would have been a year ago.

Katsunori Kikuno +250: $2.00 to win $5.00 – I’m very curious to see how a striking match between Kikuno and Tony Ferguson plays out. I expect Ferguson’s pressure to be a little too much for Kikuno, but I think it’s competitive enough for a bet on Kikuno to be worthwhile at this price.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


9 responses to “UFC 173 Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton May 24, 2014 at 4:34 am

    My plays:

    3 units: Ellenberger
    3 units: Njokuani/Iaquinta parlay
    3 units: Cormier/Barao/ Holdsworth parlay

  2. szady May 24, 2014 at 7:19 am

    My plays:
    2 units: Francisco Rivera +150
    2 units: James Krause +160
    2 units: Aaron Phillips +130

  3. Mirko May 24, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    I have Robbie/Barao/Cormier and Holdsworth/Chiesa/Barao/Cormier. I might put on something on Varner aswelll.

  4. Mirko May 24, 2014 at 9:43 pm

    Wow, not only Tj. won, he also won by stoppage. Good job betting on Tj.

  5. Howard Morton May 25, 2014 at 4:02 am

    I got beat.

    Nice pick on Dillashaw.

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