Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Berlin and TUF Brazil Finale Predictions Summary

There are a whole lot of fights taking place tomorrow. Here’s who I think will win:

UFC FIGHT NIGHT BERLIN

  • Gegard Mousasi over Mark Munoz
  • Francis Carmont over C.B. Dollaway
  • Luke Barnatt over Sean Strickland
  • Tom Niinimaki over Niklas Backstrom
  • Nick Hein over Drew Dober
  • Krzysztof Jotko over Magnus Cedenblad
  • Iuri Alcantara over Vaughan Lee
  • Pawel Pawlak over Peter Sobotta
  • Maximo Blanco over Andy Ogle
  • Ruslan Magomedov over Viktor Pesta

THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER BRAZIL FINALE

  • Stipe Miocic over Fabio Maldonado
  • Vitor Miranda over Antonio Carlos Junior
  • Warlley Alves over Marcio Alexandre Junior
  • Demian Maia over Alexander Yakovlev
  • Robbie Peralta over Rony Jason
  • Rashid Magomedov over Rodrigo Damm
  • Elias Silverio over Ernest Chavez
  • Paulo Thiago over Gasan Umalatov
  • Kevin Souza over Mark Eddiva
  • Ricardo Abreu over Wagner Silva
  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Richardson Moreira
  • Pedro Munhoz over Matt Hobar

YEAR TO DATE

Last Event: 6-6 (50.0%)

Year to Date: 113-63 (64.2%)

It’s been tough to make accurate picks lately. Lots of underdogs have been winning, even extreme underdogs like T.J. Dillashaw and Johnny Eduardo. Picking Jake Ellenberger to beat Robbie Lawler last week isn’t helping my cause – one of my worst calls this year so far.

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: +$7.50

Current Bankroll: $79.71

Total Investment: $161.07

Total Return: $29.71

Return on Investment: 18.4%

I didn’t pick Dillashaw to beat Renan Barao, but I sure did bet on him! Dillashaw’s upset goes down as one of the biggest in UFC history, so I shouldn’t expect to cash in like that too many times.

For these events I have:

Mark Munoz +255: $3.00 to win $7.65 – Munoz has a genuinely fragile chin, and there’s a chance that Gegard Mousasi will knock him out early. If that doesn’t happen, I think Munoz’s wrestling is going to give Mousasi fits. If Mousasi can’t stay off his back, it’s going to be very difficult for him to win this fight against a great ground and pound fighter in Munoz. I don’t trust Munoz enough to pick him outright but I like the style matchup.

Robbie Peralta +240: $3.00 to win $7.20 – I know Rony Jason is very popular in Brazil, but I’m shocked that he’s considered this much of a favorite to beat Robbie Peralta. If Jason can get Peralta to the ground, I like his chances. But if Jason decides to get into a brawl – and that has been his tendency in the UFC – there’s a good chance the hard-hitting Peralta knocks him out.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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7 responses to “UFC Fight Night Berlin and TUF Brazil Finale Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton May 31, 2014 at 4:43 am

    Only play: Carmont/Silverio parlay @ +101.

  2. Mirko June 1, 2014 at 7:09 am

    Barnatt vs Strickland was biggest rip off and the person who placed bet on Strickland is telling you that.
    Also Peralta won on split decision and one judge gave Ronny 30-27 which is absolutely crazy, that should have been unanimous for Peralta.

  3. Howard Morton June 2, 2014 at 4:12 am

    I did not see the Peralta/Jason fight, but some are saying that Jason fought dumb but still should have got the decision,

  4. Mike June 2, 2014 at 11:02 am

    I thought Strickland and Peralta decisions were both good (great call on Peralta). Both very close fights for sure, but Strickland outstruck Barnatt in my eyes he was just backpedaling the entire time. Peralta I thought lost the first then definitely won the final two rounds.

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