UFC Fight Night Berlin and TUF Brazil Finale Predictions Summary
May 30, 2014
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There are a whole lot of fights taking place tomorrow. Here’s who I think will win:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BERLIN
- Gegard Mousasi over Mark Munoz
- Francis Carmont over C.B. Dollaway
- Luke Barnatt over Sean Strickland
- Tom Niinimaki over Niklas Backstrom
- Nick Hein over Drew Dober
- Krzysztof Jotko over Magnus Cedenblad
- Iuri Alcantara over Vaughan Lee
- Pawel Pawlak over Peter Sobotta
- Maximo Blanco over Andy Ogle
- Ruslan Magomedov over Viktor Pesta
THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER BRAZIL FINALE
- Stipe Miocic over Fabio Maldonado
- Vitor Miranda over Antonio Carlos Junior
- Warlley Alves over Marcio Alexandre Junior
- Demian Maia over Alexander Yakovlev
- Robbie Peralta over Rony Jason
- Rashid Magomedov over Rodrigo Damm
- Elias Silverio over Ernest Chavez
- Paulo Thiago over Gasan Umalatov
- Kevin Souza over Mark Eddiva
- Ricardo Abreu over Wagner Silva
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Richardson Moreira
- Pedro Munhoz over Matt Hobar
YEAR TO DATE
Last Event: 6-6 (50.0%)
Year to Date: 113-63 (64.2%)
It’s been tough to make accurate picks lately. Lots of underdogs have been winning, even extreme underdogs like T.J. Dillashaw and Johnny Eduardo. Picking Jake Ellenberger to beat Robbie Lawler last week isn’t helping my cause – one of my worst calls this year so far.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$7.50
Current Bankroll: $79.71
Total Investment: $161.07
Total Return: $29.71
Return on Investment: 18.4%
I didn’t pick Dillashaw to beat Renan Barao, but I sure did bet on him! Dillashaw’s upset goes down as one of the biggest in UFC history, so I shouldn’t expect to cash in like that too many times.
For these events I have:
Mark Munoz +255: $3.00 to win $7.65 – Munoz has a genuinely fragile chin, and there’s a chance that Gegard Mousasi will knock him out early. If that doesn’t happen, I think Munoz’s wrestling is going to give Mousasi fits. If Mousasi can’t stay off his back, it’s going to be very difficult for him to win this fight against a great ground and pound fighter in Munoz. I don’t trust Munoz enough to pick him outright but I like the style matchup.
Robbie Peralta +240: $3.00 to win $7.20 – I know Rony Jason is very popular in Brazil, but I’m shocked that he’s considered this much of a favorite to beat Robbie Peralta. If Jason can get Peralta to the ground, I like his chances. But if Jason decides to get into a brawl – and that has been his tendency in the UFC – there’s a good chance the hard-hitting Peralta knocks him out.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!