Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Albuquerque Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

  • Benson Henderson over Rustam Khabilov
  • Ross Pearson over Diego Sanchez
  • John Dodson over John Moraga
  • Rafael Dos Anjos over Jason High
  • Piotr Hallmann over Yves Edwards
  • Erik Perez over Bryan Caraway
  • Sergio Pettis over Yaotzin Meza
  • Lance Benoist over Bobby Voelker
  • Scott Jorgensen over Danny Martinez
  • Jon Tuck over Jake Lindsey
  • Patrick Cummins over Roger Narvaez


Last Event(s): 15-7 (68.2%)

Year to Date: 128-70 (64.6%)



Last Event: +$4.20

Current Bankroll: $83.91

Total Investment: $167.07

Total Return: $33.91

Return on Investment: 20.3%

Last week, I had bets on just two of the 22 fights scheduled: $3.00 bets on Mark Munoz and Robbie Peralta. Munoz got humiliated by Gegard Mousasi but Peralta came through with a split decision victory against Rony Jason. Since Peralta was +240, the result was a profitable day.

For this event I have…


I hate to say it, but when I look at the betting lines for this card, there’s absolutely nothing that stands out to me as a great value. There are certain fighters I think are close though. I almost bet on Diego Sanchez at +160, but now he’s slipped to +150. If Sanchez hits +175 or better then I’ll put a bet down. I’m also intrigued by Jason High at +250 against Rafael Dos Anjos even though it’s a tough style matchup for him. I think Lance Benoist should be favored against Bobby Voelker, but +110 isn’t a good enough price for me to put my money where my mouth is on that one.

I also suspect that John Moraga and Yaotzin Meza are each a decent value at +450 against John Dodson and Sergio Pettis, but once again, they’re not a good enough value for me to risk my (admittedly trivial amounts of) money.

Finally, I’m tempted to “fade” Patrick Cummins but I can’t do it when I don’t know much about his opponent, Roger Narvaez.

If the lines move enough to where I think there’s value, I’ll put the plays on Twitter. For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.

For those of you who do have bets down, best of luck and enjoy the fights!


14 responses to “UFC Fight Night Albuquerque Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton June 7, 2014 at 4:05 am

    4 unit parlay: Dos Anjos/Pettis/Dodson
    2 unit parlay: Pearson/Perez

  2. olddirtyfighter June 7, 2014 at 5:31 am

    For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.
    -this attitude and your knowledge makes you potentially very good gambler, stay smart David, you’re doing great job

  3. szady June 7, 2014 at 11:19 pm

    You should have played David. Sanchez & Benoit get the job done. I played them straight and had Benson + Hallmann parlay (which i wrote about on your site), and Joanna Jedrzejczyk from Cage Warriors (top WMMA polish prospect). As I said lately, I’m from Poland and this two were amazing yesterday. I’m sad because of Krzysztof Jotko’s loss but he is still a good figher. From the next UFC I like playing Tyron Woodley at plus money. Physsicall strenght and wrestling should play a big factor

    • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 1:58 pm

      I probably would have won money if I had put some bets down, but I would have felt just plain dirty if I won money on Diego Sanchez this time. I’ll be sure to check out Joanna.

  4. szady June 8, 2014 at 1:05 am

    Jedrzejczyk had done what Jessica Andrade couldn’t. Finished fight in the distance.

  5. Mirko June 8, 2014 at 5:22 am

    I didn’t watch the fight, but judging on fightmetric and sherdog scoring system which was 30-27 for Pearson, this split decision looks like a pretty big rip off.

    • Mike O June 8, 2014 at 9:51 am

      idk how anyone could even make a case that Diego Sanchez won his fight. He was getting outstruck badly by Pearson. It was an easy 30-27 for Pearson. Worst decision in UFC history imo.

      • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 2:01 pm

        I had it 30-27 Pearson as well. I’ll have to go back and watch Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann and see which decision I think was worse. This is definitely one of the worst ever though.

    • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 1:58 pm

      I had it 30-27 Pearson and so did most people. Even 29-28 Pearson is a stretch in my opinion. 30-27 Sanchez is so far beyond logic and reason that I simply cannot comprehend how a judge would score the fight that way.

  6. Howard Morton June 8, 2014 at 7:45 am

    UFC 174 has some tough fights to pick, a lot of close lines. These are my picks so far:
    Arlovski (only at + money) should be able to keep fight standing and pick up UD.
    MacDonald (only at +money) gut feeling on this one.
    Feijao (only at +money) i dont trust Baders chin.

    • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 1:59 pm

      Tough event for sure. I’ll really have to do my due diligence with this one. Congrats on cashing your 4 unit parlay by the way.

      • Mirko June 8, 2014 at 3:20 pm

        I agree on Arlovski and Feijao, but I’m not so sure about MacDonald, Woodley showed huge improvement in striking last fight and vicious punching power, he even scored one knockdown. I just think Woodley has more paths to victory then MacDonald.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: