Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Albuquerque Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

  • Benson Henderson over Rustam Khabilov
  • Ross Pearson over Diego Sanchez
  • John Dodson over John Moraga
  • Rafael Dos Anjos over Jason High
  • Piotr Hallmann over Yves Edwards
  • Erik Perez over Bryan Caraway
  • Sergio Pettis over Yaotzin Meza
  • Lance Benoist over Bobby Voelker
  • Scott Jorgensen over Danny Martinez
  • Jon Tuck over Jake Lindsey
  • Patrick Cummins over Roger Narvaez

YEAR TO DATE

Last Event(s): 15-7 (68.2%)

Year to Date: 128-70 (64.6%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: +$4.20

Current Bankroll: $83.91

Total Investment: $167.07

Total Return: $33.91

Return on Investment: 20.3%

Last week, I had bets on just two of the 22 fights scheduled: $3.00 bets on Mark Munoz and Robbie Peralta. Munoz got humiliated by Gegard Mousasi but Peralta came through with a split decision victory against Rony Jason. Since Peralta was +240, the result was a profitable day.

For this event I have…

NOTHING!

I hate to say it, but when I look at the betting lines for this card, there’s absolutely nothing that stands out to me as a great value. There are certain fighters I think are close though. I almost bet on Diego Sanchez at +160, but now he’s slipped to +150. If Sanchez hits +175 or better then I’ll put a bet down. I’m also intrigued by Jason High at +250 against Rafael Dos Anjos even though it’s a tough style matchup for him. I think Lance Benoist should be favored against Bobby Voelker, but +110 isn’t a good enough price for me to put my money where my mouth is on that one.

I also suspect that John Moraga and Yaotzin Meza are each a decent value at +450 against John Dodson and Sergio Pettis, but once again, they’re not a good enough value for me to risk my (admittedly trivial amounts of) money.

Finally, I’m tempted to “fade” Patrick Cummins but I can’t do it when I don’t know much about his opponent, Roger Narvaez.

If the lines move enough to where I think there’s value, I’ll put the plays on Twitter. For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.

For those of you who do have bets down, best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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14 responses to “UFC Fight Night Albuquerque Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton June 7, 2014 at 4:05 am

    4 unit parlay: Dos Anjos/Pettis/Dodson
    2 unit parlay: Pearson/Perez

  2. olddirtyfighter June 7, 2014 at 5:31 am

    For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.
    -this attitude and your knowledge makes you potentially very good gambler, stay smart David, you’re doing great job

  3. szady June 7, 2014 at 11:19 pm

    You should have played David. Sanchez & Benoit get the job done. I played them straight and had Benson + Hallmann parlay (which i wrote about on your site), and Joanna Jedrzejczyk from Cage Warriors (top WMMA polish prospect). As I said lately, I’m from Poland and this two were amazing yesterday. I’m sad because of Krzysztof Jotko’s loss but he is still a good figher. From the next UFC I like playing Tyron Woodley at plus money. Physsicall strenght and wrestling should play a big factor

    • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 1:58 pm

      I probably would have won money if I had put some bets down, but I would have felt just plain dirty if I won money on Diego Sanchez this time. I’ll be sure to check out Joanna.

  4. szady June 8, 2014 at 1:05 am

    Jedrzejczyk had done what Jessica Andrade couldn’t. Finished fight in the distance.

  5. Mirko June 8, 2014 at 5:22 am

    I didn’t watch the fight, but judging on fightmetric and sherdog scoring system which was 30-27 for Pearson, this split decision looks like a pretty big rip off.

    • Mike O June 8, 2014 at 9:51 am

      idk how anyone could even make a case that Diego Sanchez won his fight. He was getting outstruck badly by Pearson. It was an easy 30-27 for Pearson. Worst decision in UFC history imo.

      • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 2:01 pm

        I had it 30-27 Pearson as well. I’ll have to go back and watch Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann and see which decision I think was worse. This is definitely one of the worst ever though.

    • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 1:58 pm

      I had it 30-27 Pearson and so did most people. Even 29-28 Pearson is a stretch in my opinion. 30-27 Sanchez is so far beyond logic and reason that I simply cannot comprehend how a judge would score the fight that way.

  6. Howard Morton June 8, 2014 at 7:45 am

    UFC 174 has some tough fights to pick, a lot of close lines. These are my picks so far:
    Arlovski (only at + money) should be able to keep fight standing and pick up UD.
    MacDonald (only at +money) gut feeling on this one.
    Feijao (only at +money) i dont trust Baders chin.

    • David Williams June 8, 2014 at 1:59 pm

      Tough event for sure. I’ll really have to do my due diligence with this one. Congrats on cashing your 4 unit parlay by the way.

      • Mirko June 8, 2014 at 3:20 pm

        I agree on Arlovski and Feijao, but I’m not so sure about MacDonald, Woodley showed huge improvement in striking last fight and vicious punching power, he even scored one knockdown. I just think Woodley has more paths to victory then MacDonald.

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