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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
My picks for this event are:
YEAR TO DATE
Last Event(s): 15-7 (68.2%)
Year to Date: 128-70 (64.6%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$4.20
Current Bankroll: $83.91
Total Investment: $167.07
Total Return: $33.91
Return on Investment: 20.3%
Last week, I had bets on just two of the 22 fights scheduled: $3.00 bets on Mark Munoz and Robbie Peralta. Munoz got humiliated by Gegard Mousasi but Peralta came through with a split decision victory against Rony Jason. Since Peralta was +240, the result was a profitable day.
For this event I have…
I hate to say it, but when I look at the betting lines for this card, there’s absolutely nothing that stands out to me as a great value. There are certain fighters I think are close though. I almost bet on Diego Sanchez at +160, but now he’s slipped to +150. If Sanchez hits +175 or better then I’ll put a bet down. I’m also intrigued by Jason High at +250 against Rafael Dos Anjos even though it’s a tough style matchup for him. I think Lance Benoist should be favored against Bobby Voelker, but +110 isn’t a good enough price for me to put my money where my mouth is on that one.
I also suspect that John Moraga and Yaotzin Meza are each a decent value at +450 against John Dodson and Sergio Pettis, but once again, they’re not a good enough value for me to risk my (admittedly trivial amounts of) money.
Finally, I’m tempted to “fade” Patrick Cummins but I can’t do it when I don’t know much about his opponent, Roger Narvaez.
If the lines move enough to where I think there’s value, I’ll put the plays on Twitter. For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.
For those of you who do have bets down, best of luck and enjoy the fights!