Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFN 43/44 Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

Once again, here are my picks for tomorrow’s UFC doubleheader:

UFC Fight Night Auckland

  • James Te Huna over Nate Marquardt
  • Jared Rosholt over Soa Palelei
  • Hatsu Hioki over Charles Oliveira
  • Robert Whittaker over Mike Rhodes
  • Jake Matthews over Dashon Johnson
  • Richie Vaculik over Roldan Sangcha-An
  • Chris Indich over Vik Grujic
  • Neil Magny over Rodrigo Goiana de Lima
  • Ian Entwistle over Daniel Hooker
  • Gian Villante over Sean O’Connell

UFC Fight Night San Antonio

  • Cub Swanson over Jeremy Stephens
  • Kelvin Gastelum over Nicholas Musoke
  • Cezar Ferreira over Andrew Craig
  • Ricardo Lamas over Hacran Dias
  • Antonio Braga Neto over Clint Hester
  • Joe Ellenberger over James Moontasri
  • Carlos Diego Ferreira over Colton Smith
  • Johnny Bedford over Cody Gibson
  • Andy Enz over Marcelo Guimaraes
  • Ray Borg over Shane Howell
  • Oleksiy Oliynik over Anthony Hamilton


Last Event: +$1.35

Current Bankroll: $85.26

Total Investment: $185.67

Total Return: $35.26

Return on Investment: 19.0%

I got bailed out at UFC 174 by the judges giving Andrei Arlovski a decision victory over Brendan Schaub. I felt like Arlovski didn’t accomplish much of anything in that fight, and Schaub was the deserving winner… but the judges disagreed, making my Arlovski +145 wager a winning one. That was just enough to turn a small profit of $1.35.

For these events I have…

Mike Rhodes +250: $3.00 to win $7.50 – I think he’s a lot better than he showed in his debut against George Sullivan.

Hatsu Hioki +165: $3.00 to win $4.95 – He matches up well with Charles Oliveira in my humble opinion. His sound positional grappling should be a good counter to Oliveira’s wild attacking ground game.

Nate Marquardt +180: $3.00 to win $5.40 – Both fighters have fragile chins, with Te Huna’s size advantage being mostly canceled out by his cutting weight to 185 for the first time. This seems like a near coin flip to me.

Jeremy Stephens +215: $3.00 to win $6.45 – I think Swanson has the better ground game, but Stephens can hang with him standing, and this fight is likely to stay standing for the most part.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


4 responses to “UFN 43/44 Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. d3tocqueville June 27, 2014 at 3:16 pm

    I believe the most value lies in Moontasri against Ellenberger, even despite him taking the fight on short notice. He has great striking and solid takedown defense which should play out well against Joe.

  2. Howard Morton June 28, 2014 at 3:06 am

    I am too late for New Zealand but here are my bets for San Antonio:

    4 units: Gastelum/Lamas parlay @ -108.
    2 units : Borg/Enz @ -106
    1 unit: Neto/Ferriera parlay @ +147
    1 unit : Andrew Craig @ +165

  3. Howard Morton June 28, 2014 at 4:00 am

    Nice call on Marquardt. I picked him to win, but did not bet it.

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