Here is who I think should win the fights over the weekend:
- Chris Weidman over Lyoto Machida
- Ronda Rousey over Alexis Davis
- Matt Mitrione over Stefan Struve
- Uriah Hall over Thiago Santos
- Marcus Brimage over Russell Doane
- Urijah Faber over Alex Caceres
- Ildemar Alcantara over Kenny Robertson
- Chris Camozzi over Bruno Santos
- George Roop over Rob Font
- Guilherme Vasconcelos over Luke Zachrich
- Kevin Casey over Bubba Bush
TUF 19 FINALE
- Frankie Edgar over B.J. Penn
- Corey Anderson over Matt Van Buren
- Dhiego Lima over Eddie Gordon
- Derrick Lewis over Guto Inocente
- Justin Scoggins over Dustin Ortiz
- Kevin Lee over Jesse Ronson
- Leandro Issa over Jumabieke Tuerxun
- Adriano Martins over Juan Manuel Puig Carreon
- Dan Spohn over Patrick Walsh
- Alexis Dufresne over Sarah Moras
- Robert Drysdale over Keith Berish
YEAR TO DATE
Last Events: 14-7 (66.7%)
Year to Date: 159-82 (66.0%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Events: -$3.60
Current Bankroll: $81.66
Total Investment: $197.67
Total Return: $31.66
Return on Investment: 16.0%
Of the four underdogs I bet on last week, only Nate Marquardt came through with a victory. That broke what was a six-event winning streak for my degenerate gambling on the UFC. Of course, nobody should expect to win every time.
For this weekend I have…
Chris Weidman -185: $5.55 to win $3.00 – I’ve developed an aversion to betting on favorites, but I think Weidman is such a phenomenal talent that I can’t resist betting on him here. I suspect that we’ll look back and see this as a bargain, even knowing how good Lyoto Machida is as a challenger.
Matt Mitrione +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – I think Mitrione has a decisive advantage standing and Stefan Struve has a decisive advantage on the ground. But I don’t trust Struve’s ability to get the fight to the ground, or have the willingness to try. I was also fortunate to get a bet down on Mitrione at the best price available to this point.
Thiago Santos +350: $3.00 to win $10.50 – By no means do I believe that Thiago Santos is going to have a long and successful UFC career; there are far too many holes in his game. But in what figures to be a striking match against a similarly flawed opponent in Uriah Hall, I can’t pass on a price as good as this.
Alex Caceres +750: $1.00 to win $7.50 – As much as I think the line here is a bit ridiculous, I don’t actually have that much faith in the ability of “Bruce Leeroy” to upset Urijah Faber. That’s why I placed a smaller bet here. I fully expect to lose this one but you never know.
My “leans” for this weekend include Bruno Santos, Kevin Casey, B.J. Penn (he’s +400 after all), Matt Van Buren, and Keith Berish. (Robert Drysdale might be amazing at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but +800?) Ultimately, I don’t have the guts to bet on any one of them. I was hoping to get a good price on Kevin Lee, who I think is a great prospect, but -210 just isn’t good enough. The same goes for Justin Scoggins, who I think is a potential champion in the flyweight division, but is listed at -330 to beat Dustin Ortiz.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!