Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 175 and TUF 19 Finale Predictions Summary

Here is who I think should win the fights over the weekend:

UFC 175

  • Chris Weidman over Lyoto Machida
  • Ronda Rousey over Alexis Davis
  • Matt Mitrione over Stefan Struve
  • Uriah Hall over Thiago Santos
  • Marcus Brimage over Russell Doane
  • Urijah Faber over Alex Caceres
  • Ildemar Alcantara over Kenny Robertson
  • Chris Camozzi over Bruno Santos
  • George Roop over Rob Font
  • Guilherme Vasconcelos over Luke Zachrich
  • Kevin Casey over Bubba Bush

TUF 19 FINALE

  • Frankie Edgar over B.J. Penn
  • Corey Anderson over Matt Van Buren
  • Dhiego Lima over Eddie Gordon
  • Derrick Lewis over Guto Inocente
  • Justin Scoggins over Dustin Ortiz
  • Kevin Lee over Jesse Ronson
  • Leandro Issa over Jumabieke Tuerxun
  • Adriano Martins over Juan Manuel Puig Carreon
  • Dan Spohn over Patrick Walsh
  • Alexis Dufresne over Sarah Moras
  • Robert Drysdale over Keith Berish

YEAR TO DATE

Last Events: 14-7 (66.7%)

Year to Date: 159-82 (66.0%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Events: -$3.60

Current Bankroll: $81.66

Total Investment: $197.67

Total Return: $31.66

Return on Investment: 16.0%

Of the four underdogs I bet on last week, only Nate Marquardt came through with a victory. That broke what was a six-event winning streak for my degenerate gambling on the UFC. Of course, nobody should expect to win every time.

For this weekend I have…

Chris Weidman -185: $5.55 to win $3.00 – I’ve developed an aversion to betting on favorites, but I think Weidman is such a phenomenal talent that I can’t resist betting on him here. I suspect that we’ll look back and see this as a bargain, even knowing how good Lyoto Machida is as a challenger.

Matt Mitrione +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – I think Mitrione has a decisive advantage standing and Stefan Struve has a decisive advantage on the ground. But I don’t trust Struve’s ability to get the fight to the ground, or have the willingness to try. I was also fortunate to get a bet down on Mitrione at the best price available to this point.

Thiago Santos +350: $3.00 to win $10.50 – By no means do I believe that Thiago Santos is going to have a long and successful UFC career; there are far too many holes in his game. But in what figures to be a striking match against a similarly flawed opponent in Uriah Hall, I can’t pass on a price as good as this.

Alex Caceres +750: $1.00 to win $7.50 – As much as I think the line here is a bit ridiculous, I don’t actually have that much faith in the ability of “Bruce Leeroy” to upset Urijah Faber. That’s why I placed a smaller bet here. I fully expect to lose this one but you never know.

My “leans” for this weekend include Bruno Santos, Kevin Casey, B.J. Penn (he’s +400 after all), Matt Van Buren, and Keith Berish. (Robert Drysdale might be amazing at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but +800?) Ultimately, I don’t have the guts to bet on any one of them. I was hoping to get a good price on Kevin Lee, who I think is a great prospect, but -210 just isn’t good enough. The same goes for Justin Scoggins, who I think is a potential champion in the flyweight division, but is listed at -330 to beat Dustin Ortiz.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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