Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Bangor Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

  • Ryan Bader over Ovince St-Preux
  • Ross Pearson over Gray Maynard
  • Brad Tavares over Tim Boetsch
  • Seth Baczynski over Alan Jouban
  • Shawn Jordan over Jack May
  • Robbie Peralta over Thiago Tavares
  • Zach Makovsky over Jussier Formiga
  • Sara McMann over Lauren Murphy
  • Sam Alvey over Tom Watson
  • Frankie Saenz over Nolan Ticman

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 9-3 (75.0%)

Year To Date: 194-101 (65.8%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: +$0.45

Current Bankroll: $81.70

Total Investment: $226.22

Total Return: $31.70

Return on Investment: 14.01%

At UFC on Fox 12, Matt Brown and Andreas Stahl both fell short but Bobby Green came through with a split decision victory, securing a profit of a quarter and two dimes. Hooray profit!

For this event I have…

Robbie Peralta +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – For some reason, Peralta is consistently an underdog against mid-level UFC types like Rony Jason and Thiago Tavares. I think Peralta is better than he gets credit for – a power punching offensive striker with good takedown defense. Peralta has a ceiling but I think he’s better than Tavares.

Jussier Formiga +290: $3.00 to win $8.70 – When Jacob Volkmann fought Paul Sass, the thinking was that Volkmann was going to take Sass down, and that 15 minutes was a very long time for Volkmann to have to survive Sass’s attacking guard game. The same thing applies here. Zach Makovsky is a similar fighter to Volkmann, a wrestler with three submission losses, and now he’s fighting a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace. Formiga doesn’t spam submission attempts like Sass does, but he’s very slick on the ground and should make things very difficult for Makovsky.

Sara McMann inside the distance +332: $3.00 to win $9.96 – I have a hypothesis that there’s a market inefficiency with highly favored wrestlers. I think when a fighter is a heavy favorite to win, that fighter will win inside the distance frequently regardless of fighting style. So when Sara McMann is a -420 favorite to win outright but a +332 underdog to win inside the distance, I have to take advantage of that. I’m counting on McMann having improved her skill set since her pre-UFC days.

Sam Alvey +105: $3.00 to win $3.15 – This is far from the best price available on Alvey so far; he was listed at +160 at one point. However, I fear the line might only get worse from here, and I think Alvey’s punching power makes him a favorite over Tom Watson.

 

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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10 responses to “UFC Fight Night Bangor Predictions Summary

  1. szady August 15, 2014 at 10:54 am

    Have identical plays, except McMann ITD. I think it will end after full 15 minutes of action. Murphy is tough and should survive, but of course I wish You good luck!

  2. Howard Morton August 15, 2014 at 1:22 pm

    I tweeted you my bets Williams, so when/if I clean up you can retweet it. Thanks.

  3. Howard Morton August 15, 2014 at 1:23 pm

    @howardmorton is my twitter.

  4. Howard Morton August 16, 2014 at 10:07 am

    4 units: McMann/Tavares parlay
    2 units: Pearson/Bader parlay
    2 units: Alvey
    2 units: Formiga
    2 units: Peralta

  5. Howard Morton August 17, 2014 at 3:48 am

    +5.2 units on Formiga
    +3.6 units with Pearson/Bader parlay.

    +8.8 and the losses -8. So 0.8 units in profit.

  6. Nick August 18, 2014 at 9:36 am

    Two cards this Saturday and 7 more weekends of events. so awesome.

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