Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Bangor Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

  • Ryan Bader over Ovince St-Preux
  • Ross Pearson over Gray Maynard
  • Brad Tavares over Tim Boetsch
  • Seth Baczynski over Alan Jouban
  • Shawn Jordan over Jack May
  • Robbie Peralta over Thiago Tavares
  • Zach Makovsky over Jussier Formiga
  • Sara McMann over Lauren Murphy
  • Sam Alvey over Tom Watson
  • Frankie Saenz over Nolan Ticman


Last Event: 9-3 (75.0%)

Year To Date: 194-101 (65.8%)



Last Event: +$0.45

Current Bankroll: $81.70

Total Investment: $226.22

Total Return: $31.70

Return on Investment: 14.01%

At UFC on Fox 12, Matt Brown and Andreas Stahl both fell short but Bobby Green came through with a split decision victory, securing a profit of a quarter and two dimes. Hooray profit!

For this event I have…

Robbie Peralta +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – For some reason, Peralta is consistently an underdog against mid-level UFC types like Rony Jason and Thiago Tavares. I think Peralta is better than he gets credit for – a power punching offensive striker with good takedown defense. Peralta has a ceiling but I think he’s better than Tavares.

Jussier Formiga +290: $3.00 to win $8.70 – When Jacob Volkmann fought Paul Sass, the thinking was that Volkmann was going to take Sass down, and that 15 minutes was a very long time for Volkmann to have to survive Sass’s attacking guard game. The same thing applies here. Zach Makovsky is a similar fighter to Volkmann, a wrestler with three submission losses, and now he’s fighting a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace. Formiga doesn’t spam submission attempts like Sass does, but he’s very slick on the ground and should make things very difficult for Makovsky.

Sara McMann inside the distance +332: $3.00 to win $9.96 – I have a hypothesis that there’s a market inefficiency with highly favored wrestlers. I think when a fighter is a heavy favorite to win, that fighter will win inside the distance frequently regardless of fighting style. So when Sara McMann is a -420 favorite to win outright but a +332 underdog to win inside the distance, I have to take advantage of that. I’m counting on McMann having improved her skill set since her pre-UFC days.

Sam Alvey +105: $3.00 to win $3.15 – This is far from the best price available on Alvey so far; he was listed at +160 at one point. However, I fear the line might only get worse from here, and I think Alvey’s punching power makes him a favorite over Tom Watson.


Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


10 responses to “UFC Fight Night Bangor Predictions Summary

  1. szady August 15, 2014 at 10:54 am

    Have identical plays, except McMann ITD. I think it will end after full 15 minutes of action. Murphy is tough and should survive, but of course I wish You good luck!

  2. Howard Morton August 15, 2014 at 1:22 pm

    I tweeted you my bets Williams, so when/if I clean up you can retweet it. Thanks.

  3. Howard Morton August 15, 2014 at 1:23 pm

    @howardmorton is my twitter.

  4. Howard Morton August 16, 2014 at 10:07 am

    4 units: McMann/Tavares parlay
    2 units: Pearson/Bader parlay
    2 units: Alvey
    2 units: Formiga
    2 units: Peralta

  5. Howard Morton August 17, 2014 at 3:48 am

    +5.2 units on Formiga
    +3.6 units with Pearson/Bader parlay.

    +8.8 and the losses -8. So 0.8 units in profit.

  6. Nick August 18, 2014 at 9:36 am

    Two cards this Saturday and 7 more weekends of events. so awesome.

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