My picks for this event are:
- Ryan Bader over Ovince St-Preux
- Ross Pearson over Gray Maynard
- Brad Tavares over Tim Boetsch
- Seth Baczynski over Alan Jouban
- Shawn Jordan over Jack May
- Robbie Peralta over Thiago Tavares
- Zach Makovsky over Jussier Formiga
- Sara McMann over Lauren Murphy
- Sam Alvey over Tom Watson
- Frankie Saenz over Nolan Ticman
PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 9-3 (75.0%)
Year To Date: 194-101 (65.8%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$0.45
Current Bankroll: $81.70
Total Investment: $226.22
Total Return: $31.70
Return on Investment: 14.01%
At UFC on Fox 12, Matt Brown and Andreas Stahl both fell short but Bobby Green came through with a split decision victory, securing a profit of a quarter and two dimes. Hooray profit!
For this event I have…
Robbie Peralta +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – For some reason, Peralta is consistently an underdog against mid-level UFC types like Rony Jason and Thiago Tavares. I think Peralta is better than he gets credit for – a power punching offensive striker with good takedown defense. Peralta has a ceiling but I think he’s better than Tavares.
Jussier Formiga +290: $3.00 to win $8.70 – When Jacob Volkmann fought Paul Sass, the thinking was that Volkmann was going to take Sass down, and that 15 minutes was a very long time for Volkmann to have to survive Sass’s attacking guard game. The same thing applies here. Zach Makovsky is a similar fighter to Volkmann, a wrestler with three submission losses, and now he’s fighting a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace. Formiga doesn’t spam submission attempts like Sass does, but he’s very slick on the ground and should make things very difficult for Makovsky.
Sara McMann inside the distance +332: $3.00 to win $9.96 – I have a hypothesis that there’s a market inefficiency with highly favored wrestlers. I think when a fighter is a heavy favorite to win, that fighter will win inside the distance frequently regardless of fighting style. So when Sara McMann is a -420 favorite to win outright but a +332 underdog to win inside the distance, I have to take advantage of that. I’m counting on McMann having improved her skill set since her pre-UFC days.
Sam Alvey +105: $3.00 to win $3.15 – This is far from the best price available on Alvey so far; he was listed at +160 at one point. However, I fear the line might only get worse from here, and I think Alvey’s punching power makes him a favorite over Tom Watson.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!