Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.
Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
UFC Fight Night Macau
UFC Fight Night Tulsa
PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 5-5 (50.0%)
Year To Date: 199-106 (65.2%)
Wow, that’s a lot of chalk I picked to win this weekend. Yuck. Let’s make up for that by betting on some underdogs:
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: -$0.30
Current Bankroll: $81.40
Total Investment: $238.22
Total Return: $31.40
Return on Investment: 13.2%
Jussier Formiga came through in a big way with a victory over Zach Makovsky. However, my other three bets all lost, including Sara McMann inside the distance. I was particularly shocked at how little McMann’s game has developed. She didn’t show much in the way of ground and pound, guard passing skills, submissions, or anything besides wrestling. There was an honest argument to be made that Lauren Murphy deserved to win that fight despite fighting off her back the whole time.
For this weekend I have…
Cung Le +260 – $3.00 to win $7.80: By no means do I favor Le to defeat Michael Bisping in the main event of the Macau show. However, most of Le’s career wins are by knockout and Bisping has been knocked down five times in the UFC. There is definitely some upset potential here.
Dong Hyun Kim +165 – $3.00 to win $4.95: I described Kim vs. Tyron Woodley as a coin flip fight, one where I sided with Woodley because of his knockout power and Kim’s recent unpredictable nature. But in a coin flip fight, you have to bet on the +165 underdog, right? Woodley struggles when he can’t dominate with takedowns, and Kim is never dominated that way.
Rafael Dos Anjos +300 – $3.00 to win $9.00: I mean… come on! Benson Henderson is a great fighter but he doesn’t throw strikes with great volume and his takedown defense is average. There are definitely ways Dos Anjos can win this fight… but betting against Henderson always sounds better in theory than it turns out to be in practice. Still, +300? I have to take it.
Mike Pyle +205 – $3.00 to win $6.15: I like Jordan Mein as much as the next guy, but can we point out that he’s genuinely flawed on the ground? Four career losses by submission, and Mein let Hernani Perpetuo take him to a split decision in his last fight. I think Mein should win this fight, but Pyle is the kind of tricky fighter who may be able to exploit Mein’s weaknesses.
I also thought about Alex Garcia as a small favorite against Neil Magny, but his performance against Sean Spencer is scaring me off. I like Tony Martin a lot as well, but he’s still unproven so I’m going to avoid betting on him for now.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!