Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Macau and Tulsa Predictions Summary

UFC Fight Night Macau

  • Michael Bisping over Cung Le
  • Tyron Woodley over Dong Hyun Kim
  • Brendan O’Reilly over Zhang Lipeng
  • Yang Jianping over Ning Guangyou
  • Danny Mitchell over Wang Sai
  • Alberto Mina over Shinsho Anzai
  • Yuta Sasaki over Roland Delorme
  • Colby Covington over Wang Anying
  • Milana Dudieva over Elizabeth Phillips
  • Royston Wee over Yao Zhikui

UFC Fight Night Tulsa

  • Benson Henderson over Rafael Dos Anjos
  • Jordan Mein over Mike Pyle
  • Francis Carmont over Thales Leites
  • Max Holloway over Clay Collard
  • James Vick over Valmir Lazaro
  • Tom Niinimaki over Chas Skelly
  • Alex Garcia over Neil Magny
  • Tony Martin over Beneil Dariush
  • Matt Hobar over Aaron Phillips
  • Ben Saunders over Chris Heatherly
  • Wilson Reis over Joby Sanchez

 

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 5-5 (50.0%)

Year To Date: 199-106 (65.2%)

Wow, that’s a lot of chalk I picked to win this weekend. Yuck. Let’s make up for that by betting on some underdogs:

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: -$0.30

Current Bankroll: $81.40

Total Investment: $238.22

Total Return: $31.40

Return on Investment: 13.2%

Jussier Formiga came through in a big way with a victory over Zach Makovsky. However, my other three bets all lost, including Sara McMann inside the distance. I was particularly shocked at how little McMann’s game has developed. She didn’t show much in the way of ground and pound, guard passing skills, submissions, or anything besides wrestling. There was an honest argument to be made that Lauren Murphy deserved to win that fight despite fighting off her back the whole time.

For this weekend I have…

Cung Le +260 – $3.00 to win $7.80: By no means do I favor Le to defeat Michael Bisping in the main event of the Macau show. However, most of Le’s career wins are by knockout and Bisping has been knocked down five times in the UFC. There is definitely some upset potential here.

Dong Hyun Kim +165 – $3.00 to win $4.95: I described Kim vs. Tyron Woodley as a coin flip fight, one where I sided with Woodley because of his knockout power and Kim’s recent unpredictable nature. But in a coin flip fight, you have to bet on the +165 underdog, right? Woodley struggles when he can’t dominate with takedowns, and Kim is never dominated that way.

Rafael Dos Anjos +300 – $3.00 to win $9.00: I mean… come on! Benson Henderson is a great fighter but he doesn’t throw strikes with great volume and his takedown defense is average. There are definitely ways Dos Anjos can win this fight… but betting against Henderson always sounds better in theory than it turns out to be in practice. Still, +300? I have to take it.

Mike Pyle +205 – $3.00 to win $6.15: I like Jordan Mein as much as the next guy, but can we point out that he’s genuinely flawed on the ground? Four career losses by submission, and Mein let Hernani Perpetuo take him to a split decision in his last fight. I think Mein should win this fight, but Pyle is the kind of tricky fighter who may be able to exploit Mein’s weaknesses.

I also thought about Alex Garcia as a small favorite against Neil Magny, but his performance against Sean Spencer is scaring me off. I like Tony Martin a lot as well, but he’s still unproven so I’m going to avoid betting on him for now.

 

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

Advertisements

6 responses to “UFC Fight Night Macau and Tulsa Predictions Summary

  1. Howard Morton August 23, 2014 at 3:23 am

    3 units Kim @+155
    3 units Thales Leites @+145
    3 unit parlay Covington/Mein/Holloway @+115
    3 units Skelly +130
    3 units Wee/Mina +110

  2. Howard Morton August 23, 2014 at 3:24 am

    One more play:

    2 units: Rafael Dos Anjos +310

  3. Howard Morton August 23, 2014 at 11:44 am

    After the UFC Fight Night China I am +0.3 units. Lol.

  4. Howard Morton August 24, 2014 at 3:29 am

    +17.6 units!

  5. Nick August 25, 2014 at 10:50 am

    Damn you killed it Howard. Awesome job.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: