The news just broke that Henry Cejudo vs. Scott Jorgensen is off due to Cejudo having weight cutting problems. Not good for a guy who already had questions about his work ethic coming in. It’s a shame because that was one of the fights I was most looking forward to.
Here are my picks for the remaining nine fights:
- T.J. Dillashaw over Renan Barao
- Tony Ferguson over Danny Castillo
- Bethe Correia over Shayna Baszler
- Carlos Diego Ferreira over Ramsey Nijem
- Yancy Medeiros over Damon Jackson
- Lorenz Larkin over Derek Brunson
- Anthony Hamilton over Ruan Potts
- Anthony Birchak over Joe Soto
- Cain Carrizosa over Chris Wade
PICKS TO DATE
Last Events: 13-8 (61.9%)
Year To Date: 212-114 (65.0%)
I don’t know if I’ve ever felt so clueless leading into a UFC event about who will win. Most of the fights are near coin flips and some feature fighters with not very much footage to break down online. Especially for fights like Medeiros-Jackson and Carrizosa-Wade… I’m really not doing much more than making an educated guess.
Obviously this is a very poor offering for a pay per view. The UFC Fight Night card a week from today is a stronger lineup. I don’t know what the UFC is thinking here but I can’t imagine this show doing even as well as UFC 174 earlier this year. I’m all for T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao (even if I don’t see the need for a rematch so soon) but Ferguson-Castillo is really stretching the boundaries of what a co-main event on pay per view can be, and the other fights on the main card would normally be on the prelims.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Events: $0.00
Current Bankroll: $81.40
Total Investment: $250.22
Total Return: $31.40
Return on Investment: 12.5%
Last time, things were looking bleak as losses on Dong Hyun Kim, Cung Le, and Mike Pyle left me with just one bet remaining. That bet was Rafael Dos Anjos, a 4-1 underdog against Benson Henderson. Fortunately, Dos Anjos came through with a first round knockout, wiping out my losses and leaving me with a profit of… zero dollars and zero cents.
For this event I have…
Ramsey Nijem +175: $3.00 to win $5.25 – I think Nijem wins if his fight against Carlos Diego Ferreira goes the distance. What scares me is that Nijem is one of the guys whose overall statistics are very strong but underachieves too often. Nijem should have never lost by guillotine choke to James Vick, but he did. Even so, Ferreira has a grand total of one win in the UFC (against Colton Smith, who clearly doesn’t belong in the promotion). His pre-UFC fight record was very strong, but has he really proven he deserves to be solidly favored against Nijem? I don’t think so.
That’s the only bet I have this time around. I was hoping Dillashaw would be the underdog again in the rematch against Barao but it didn’t happen. Lorenz Larkin at slight plus money is interesting but I have too much respect for Derek Brunson to put a bet down.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!