Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Post-2001 FPR SRS Ratings

A few people have been asking recently about my attempt to re-create the Fighter Performance Rating metric using the Simple Rating System method. Check this post out if you’re wondering just what I’m talking about.

I wanted to show that I have finally started building these ratings and I have data through the end of 2001. I decided to post the ratings of each fighter as of 1/1/2002, but before I do that, a few caveats:

-There isn’t nearly enough data to draw firm conclusions here. These ratings only include fights from November 2000 to December 2001. As a result, most of the fighters listed have just two or three fights of data. This is a “just for fun” list, not to be taken seriously.

-I’ve listed each fighter according to the weight class I believe he belonged to at that time. This can get murky, especially with PRIDE fights, since PRIDE was very lackadaisical about weight classes.

-I am not listing any fighter with just one fight. Every fighter with two or more fights of Fight Metric data is listed. That still isn’t nearly enough information to have significance; for future lists, I want to include only fighters with five fights or more.

-Some of these numbers are funky because of the way SRS adjusts for strength of opponents on such a limited data sample. With limited data, the SRS calculation ends up giving fighters the “MMA math” treatment. Using the below numbers, you’ll find that:

  • Jens Pulver (+7.55) won by decision over Dennis Hallman (+6.13)
  • Hallman won by quick submission over Matt Hughes (+3.18)
  • Hughes won by slam TKO over Carlos Newton (-3.90)
  • Newton won by submission over Pat Miletich (-6.09)
  • Miletich won by knockout over Shonie Carter (-13.35)
  • Carter won by spinning backfist knockout over Matt Serra (-15.62)

This problem should be fixed with more data. If it’s not fixed then I’ll have to abandon the idea of SRS improving FPR.

So, with the knowledge that these lists aren’t going to be meaningful until I can include more fights/data, here are the FPR SRS ratings as of January 1, 2002:

HEAVYWEIGHT

  1. Randy Couture +11.63 (UFC champion)
  2. Pedro Rizzo +8.27
  3. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +4.90 (PRIDE champion)
  4. Josh Barnett +4.72
  5. Ricco Rodriguez +1.19
  6. Mirko Cro Cop +0.69
  7. Heath Herring +0.34
  8. Gary Goodridge -0.41
  9. Semmy Schilt -0.47
  10. Mark Coleman -0.49
  11. Bobby Hoffman -0.60
  12. Assuerio Silva -1.10
  13. Vitor Belfort -1.43
  14. Mark Kerr -1.47
  15. Igor Vovchanchyn -1.88
  16. Kazuyuki Fujita -3.46
  17. Masaaki Satake -5.22
  18. Andrei Arlovski -5.41
  19. Valentijn Overeem -5.46
  20. Yoshihisa Yamamoto -6.28
  21. Gilbert Yvel -6.51
  22. Pete Williams -6.60
  23. Yoshihiro Takayama -8.19

LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT

  1. Chuck Liddell +12.88
  2. Guy Mezger +9.74
  3. Wanderlei Silva +7.60 (PRIDE champion)
  4. Kevin Randleman +7.54
  5. Tito Ortiz +6.01 (UFC champion)
  6. Murilo Rua +4.23
  7. Vladimir Matyushenko +2.98
  8. Alexander Otsuka +2.89
  9. Shungo Oyama +2.87
  10. Kazushi Sakuraba +2.82
  11. Dan Henderson +2.80
  12. Ryan Gracie +1.63
  13. Evan Tanner +0.61
  14. Yuki Kondo +0.26
  15. Elvis Sinosic -0.75
  16. Renzo Gracie -1.86
  17. Quinton Jackson -2.14
  18. Daijiro Matsui -3.78
  19. Alex Stiebling -5.35
  20. Jeremy Horn -5.53
  21. Allan Goes -5.82
  22. Akira Shoji -6.43

MIDDLEWEIGHT*

  1. Matt Lindland -1.93
  2. Ricardo Almeida -5.22
  3. Phil Baroni -5.64

WELTERWEIGHT

  1. Anderson Silva +4.02
  2. Matt Hughes +3.18 (UFC champion)
  3. Tony DeSouza +0.64
  4. Johil de Oliveira -3.55
  5. Carlos Newton -3.90
  6. Pat Miletich -6.09
  7. Shonie Carter -13.35

LIGHTWEIGHT

  1. B.J. Penn +13.34
  2. Jens Pulver +7.55 (UFC champion)
  3. Caol Uno +6.55
  4. Dennis Hallman +6.13
  5. Din Thomas +5.01
  6. Fabiano Iha +4.57
  7. Matt Serra -15.62

*Dave Menne was the UFC middleweight champion but only had one fight in this time period.

Again, I have to stress… please don’t take these numbers seriously. It’s just a sneak peek at what FPR SRS is saying about these fighters after a very limited amount of data.

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2 responses to “Post-2001 FPR SRS Ratings

  1. Howard Morton September 8, 2014 at 5:25 pm

    Where is Igor Vovchanyan?

    • David Williams September 8, 2014 at 10:16 pm

      #15 heavyweight. That might seem super low, but I’m not including any fights from before November 2000. In 2001, Vovchanchyn lost to Tra Telligman and Mario Sperry, had an awful fight with Mark Kerr where almost nothing happened, and beat Masaaki Satake and Gilbert Yvel. Not the best year for Igor.

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