Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Mousasi Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

No need for a predictions summary since all of my picks are in the previous post. Instead, let’s get right into what everybody wants to see: the degenerate gambling.


Last Event: 6-2 (75.0%)

Year To Date: 218-116 (65.3%)

Every betting favorite won at UFC 177. Theoretically, I hurt my picks percentage every time I pick an underdog… but if I only picked favorites, then what good would I be? All I would have to do then is just link and be done with it.



Last Event: -$6.00

Current Bankroll: $75.40

Total Investment: $256.22

Total Return: $25.40

Return On Investment: 9.91%

My betting picks have been very cold lately and UFC 177 was no exception. Ramsey Nijem got knocked out (again) by Carlos Diego Ferreira and I added a last-second play on Lorenz Larkin… which ended up backfiring as Larkin had no answer for Derek Brunson’s wrestling.

For this event I have…

Gegard Mousasi +255: $3.00 to win $7.65 – Mousasi is the better striker than Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Nobody would question that. What people will question is how well Mousasi can defend Jacare’s takedowns and grappling. I don’t think Jacare will submit Mousasi, and his margin for error is very slim as the moment he can’t land a takedown is the moment Mousasi will take over. I can’t pick Mousasi straight-up but I think he has a much better chance of winning than this.

Matt Mitrione +140: $3.00 to win $4.20 – It’s a heavyweight fight against Derrick Lewis, and you have to think it ends by knockout one way or the other, right? But Mitrione is the more proven fighter (slightly) and has better striking volume while Lewis is much more likely to land takedowns. Tough fight to call but I think Mitrione deserves to be favored, and as a result is a betting value at +140.

Joe Lauzon +125: $3.00 to win $3.75 – Tough fight for both guys. However, Lauzon’s weakness is his striking defense and I just don’t think Michael Chiesa is the guy to take advantage of that. This is likely to be a battle between grapplers, but I think Lauzon has the more varied submission arsenal.

Leans: I have to think Ben Rothwell knocks out Alistair Overeem some percentage of the time. It’s tempting at +425 but Overeem has such a better skill set and is such a better athlete that a Rothwell bet is almost definitely a losing bet.

Rodrigo Damm is now +375 against Al Iaquinta. That’s a little too much love for “Raging Al” in my opinion but I can’t bring myself to bet on Damm here. Damm usually chooses to strike and that’s Iaquinta’s strength. If the line keeps climbing I might have to put a bet down on Damm.

Finally, people were willing to make Sean Soriano the favorite against Tatsuya Kawajiri, but now he’s +180 against Chas Skelly? Don’t get me wrong, Skelly is a good prospect, but so is Soriano. Again, if the line climbs just a little more, I might have to bet on Soriano here.


Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


3 responses to “UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Mousasi Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. gambler September 2, 2014 at 5:57 pm

    i like mitrione as well. going to wait as i think this might get to +160 or so

  2. Howard Morton September 3, 2014 at 5:52 am

    The Black Beast will not be denied.

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